DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: October 27, 2013

E.P. Taylor Stakes, (Woodbine Race 8, 4:38 ET) by Randy Goulding

TANNERY looks like the one to beat in the Grade 1, $500,000 E. P. Taylor for fillies and mares going 1 1/4 miles at Woodbine Sunday. There is rain in the forecast and she is going to love the soft conditions of the expansive turf course. She is coming off a strong effort in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl at Belmont where she narrowly lost to her stablemate, Laughing, who has won four straight races including the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga. The only knock is her lack of speed in race where they aren’t going to be going very fast early. She still looks like the best horse in the field and the likely soft conditions are only going to enhance her chances.

MINASHKI finished in front of TANNERY in a minor stakes at Belmont in her first start in North America but couldn’t hold her off in the Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay which was contested over turf rated soft. She does have a couple of things working for her, though. She’s had a race over the course and she has more tactical speed. Her race here was a good one, too, as she showed her versatility by taking advantage of a fast pace to win the Grade 2 Canadian. She figures to be closer to the likely slow pace in the E. P. Taylor and that could give her a tactical advantage over Tannery.

IRISH MISSION looks a lot better here than she does in the Grade 1, $1 million Canadian International where she is entered two races later. She is probably better suited to the mile and half distance of International but it drew a tough group of males including last year’s winner Joshua Tree. IRISH MISSION is coming off a huge race against the boys in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer and with her good tactical speed she could be dangerous from a stalking positing while running with her own sex. She isn’t the most consistent filly around, but if she runs one her better races she should be in the mix.

COLONIAL FLAG just missed to Minashki in the Canadian but she was probably aided by the quick pace and the shape of this race might work against her. Leparoux seems like a perfect for her though, and her only win this year came over turf rated good so she might like the soft conditions. She does seem a cut below the top ones, however.

MOMENT OF MAJESTY gets a key rider change to Velazquez and with a clean trip she may have won the Canadian. She was looking for someplace to run on the turn and through a good portion of the stretch. She also broke poorly and only lost by 2 1/4 lengths.

FITFUL SKIES looks like the best of the three horses from Europe and some of her better races have been over soft turf. She seems to be peaking right now with a win in a Grade 3 at Hanover and the main knock is that she is another one that does her best running late and might not get the kind of trip she needs. It is hard not to love her consistency with four wins and four seconds from 10 starts.

SAMBA BRAZIL won a Grade 3 over yielding turf in Munich and seems to have improved since she came back from a two-month break. She does seem questionable at the distance but her half-brother Seismos, entered in the Canadian International, is a Grade 1 winner going 1 1/2 miles so she might be able to go this far.

Tannery and Minakshi look pretty solid and I am going to key them in the exotics as well as using them in the Pick 4. Irish Mission, Fitful Skies and Moment of Majesty will be the main horses used underneath. In the Pick 4 I would consider adding Fitful Skies and Irish Mission on a secondary ticket.

Canadian International (Woodbine Race 10, 5:44 pm) by Marcus Hersh

Europeans have won the last three editions of the Canadian International, a trend I expect to continue Sunday at Woodbine.

JOSHUA TREE has become the recent pillar of this 12-furlong turf race, winning the Canadian International in 2012 and 2010. He is a 6-year-old and has failed to win in five starts this year, but I see little reason he can’t contend again. His poor showings in 2013 all came on courses softer than he’s likely to encounter on Sunday, and his last-start 13th in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe has the look of a pure prep for this lesser spot.

I see one major impediment to Joshua Tree capturing his third Canadian – the German horse SEISMOS, who I would take to win this race. Five-year-old Seismos has run two races this year that I think are better than anything Joshua Tree has put up: His blowout win in the G1 Grosser Preis von Bayern at Munich, and his close second to Prince of Wales’s hero Novellist in the G1 Grosser Preis von Baden at Baden-Baden. Novellist would have been one of the favorites in the Arc had illness kept from running, and Seismos finished in front of the good horse Meandre in the von Baden. He has gone left-handed with success, and his sub-par Oct. 6 performance in a 2.5-mile stayers over soft ground should not be held against him.

Among the North Americans, I would take SLUMBER. Away for more than one year, Slumber won well in a comeback start short of his best distance and was not beaten much with a wide run in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic last out at Belmont. A case can easily be made that the Turf Classic run will propel him to a seasonal peak, but whether that is sufficient to defeat an in-form Seismos or Joshua Tree is another matter.

Admirable 7yo FORTE DEI MARMI is 3-3 this year and was third in the 2012 Canadian Int’l, but he has faced suspect competition this season & can’t be expected to improve much over his recent form. HYPER has been well managed through a good year but is taking a step up in class, is unproven at the distance, and almost has to be an underlay with the popular jockey and trainer in his corner. TEMERAINE already has improved significantly over the last few months, & it is hard to see him coming farther forward. I seriously doubt LUCAYAN, until recently a miler, slogs through the 12 furlongs with much success, and the others – on paper, at least – appear overmatched.