DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: October 26, 2013

G3 Bold Ruler Handicap (Belmont Race 8, 4:34) by Mike Beer

Not much speed lining up in six-pack Bold Ruler, which plays to the strength of well-posted STRAPPING GROOM (#6, 9/5), who surprisingly enough has become one of the top sprinters on the east coast this summer, even picking up a Grade 1 winner in the sloppy Forego, a race in which he dueled his way clear early. He’s the horse to beat, but I’ve thought all year that the older sprinters were weak, and have been waiting for the chance to play the 3yo’s against them. I’ll take that opportunity now, and try CLEARLY NOW (#5, 6/1) to post a mild upset. Clearly Now is very unlucky to only be 1-for-6 to this point in the year, as demonstrated by the fact that since his Grade 3 win in the Swale at Gulfstream, he has been right there in all four starts, coming up short by about 2 lengths – COMBINED. I could argue that he was best in each of his three losses on the dirt, contesting fast paces while wide in both the Bay Shore & Woody Stephens, and getting stuck on a four-wide chase at Parx last time.

Clearly Now has the positional speed to keep the pace in range here, and I’ll bet him to win and in exactas with Strapping Groom, and use mostly those two in the multi’s.

G3 Turnback the Alarm Handicap (Belmont Race 9, 5:06 ET) by Mike Beer

Another short field for this Grade 3, and one lacking in any true graded stakes quality performers, but there is, at least, some speed on paper. In theory, that is supposed to help ML favorite CENTRING (#6, 2/1), but I’m going to shoot for a better price with a horse who looks like a speed, but in reality should be able to make a run from somewhere off the pace. That horse is LADY COHIBA (#3, 6/1) who has made the pace in both starts since returning from the layoff, but was effective from off the pace throughout her 3yo season, and will be well served by reverting to those tactics Saturday.

I’m betting that she does that, and will play her to win, and in exactas with both Centring and ROYAL LAHAINA (#7, 6/1) who can win, but figures to be underlaid due to the trainer change to Pletcher.

G2 Fayette Stakes (Keeneland Race 9, 5:21 ET) by Marty McGee

It’s quite fitting that a meet filled with delightfully inscrutable stakes races with sizable and wide-open fields would conclude with a race such as the Fayette, which has Willcox Inn (#7, 5-2) and Lea (#8, 3-1) as lukewarm (and vulnerable) morning-line favorites.

Both of those program choices have their merits, for sure, and it’d be foolhardy to leave either off your vertical plays, assuming both will put forth his usual effort. Still, there could be value to be had here, especially when one looks close at Villandry (#1, 8-1), who will be our key play here.

Charlie LoPresti of Wise Dan renown certainly knows a good horse when he sees one, and that’s why he did not hesitate to enter this 4-year-old in this spot. With 3 wins from 5 starts since coming under the LoPresti shedrow, this guy is ready for stakes competition and stands to run a huge one with that much-needed last race under his belt. He’ll stretch out when favorably drawn to the rail with the ever-underrated Castanon aboard; quite possibly a lifetime-best is forthcoming here.

The bet: Key #1 on top and in the second spot in tri’s and supers with the two favorites (#7 and #8) while also salting in a few longer-priced contenders such as Nikki’s Sandcastle (#4) and the Poly-loving Winning Cause (#9) in this fashion: 1 with 7/8 with 4/7/8/9, and other variations thereof.

G3 Autumn Miss Stakes (Santa Anita Race 8, 7:30 ET) by Michael Hammersly

WISHING GATE

Sometimes as a handicapper you need to be smacked over the head more than once before something registers. That’s sort of the way I was with WISHING GATE. Oh, she’d run some good races (2nd in a stakes here last October) and flashed talent in Chicago this spring, including a smart optional claiming win at AP June 23. But when she came back West for the Grade 2 San Clemente you counted me among the non-believers. She rallied strongly to win by 1 ¾ lengths at 5-1, but I remained unconvinced, so when she returned in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks Aug. 17 I had no trouble aligning my loyalties elsewhere.

Well, WISHING GATE didn’t win the Oaks, but her superb 2nd to top-class NY shipper Discreet Marq, while leaving some top-class girls behind her, did win me over, so it’s with enthusiasm I move to her corner for this hillside grass sprint.

Yes, it’s a much shorter trip, but the hillside has always played well for those who can keep coming. WISHING GATE has that trait. Also, she’s not some one-dimensional deep closer. She showed ample tactical speed in those aforementioned wins at AP and DMR this summer. In other words, rider Stevens can put here wherever he sees fit, likely midpack, and with ample speed signed up here to give him the right kind of pace and target he can be licking his chops when they come over the dirt crossing and he hits the gas.

It’s another dropper who has appeal as well. NEED YOU NOW easily won the Le Cle at a mile on turf at BHP July 7 and has speed. She then set the pace in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks under pressure before faltering to 6th. That race-shape, class level and distance were all likely too much for her but that’s not the problem here. She drops and routers with speed often do very well on the hill as they have the speed to get position and the stamina to finish. She poses a big threat to ‘GATE as she figures to get a headstart and first run on that foe.

JOURNEY ON has won three straight, the last two being turf routes. It’s no surprise she loves the sod being a daughter of Grade 1 turf winner Good Journey and like ‘NOW she’s shown speed routing so she can be prominent early and still keep on coming. Note, too, her maiden win came sprinting (on DMR’s synthetic). A potential price play is HEIR KITTY. The filly has won sprinting on turf and while she found the Unzip Me too tough here Sept. 28 she’s shown before she’s got the requisite ability to be a player here. Oh, and it’s no small matter that leading rider Bejarano takes the call and trainer Miller is pushing all the right buttons this meet (11 for first 47, 23%).