DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: October 13, 2013

Nearctic Stakes (Woodbine Race 8, 4:24 ET)

The Grade 1, $300,000 Nearctic for 3-year-olds and up going six furlongs at Woodbine Sunday appears to be a wide open race with the morning line favorite EXCAPER never having won a stakes race. We’re not going to hold his sixth-place finish behind Wise Dan in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile against him in his last start, but he’s come up short ever time he’s tried stakes company. This isn’t the toughest Grade 1 field and he finished second in the Grade 2 Play the King before being overmatched in his latest. He’s never gone this short on the turf but he won his debut on Polytrack going six furlongs so he should be fine with the cutback in distance. He could win this if he clears early but he’ll have to overcome a possible wide trip and there are other options at what should be better prices.

BEAR TOUGH TIGER offers good value at 12-1. He finished third in this race last year and he showed his big effort was no fluke when he came back to win the Grade 3 Jacques Cartier in his next start on Polytrack. He hadn’t shown much in his first three races this year but he was impressive winning a $62K optional claiming race in hand Aug. 11 and could be primed for a big effort. With speedy stablemates BEAR NO JOKE and FATAL BULLET in the field he should have an honest pace to work with. His trainer Reade Baker has solid numbers with horses coming back in this time period.

STRONG IMPACT looks playable if he goes off anywhere near his morning line odds of 8-1. He earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure for his win in the $100k Fiddlers Patriot at Saratoga July 21 and he might not have cared for the yielding turf in his next two starts. He actually ran a pretty good race in the Troy behind Hogy who came back to win a $250K stakes on Tapeta at Presque Isle in his next start. Toss his latest where he got off to a poor start and he looks like a major player.

LONGHUNTER is coming off a sharp win at Kentucky Downs and should get a nice trip from a stalking positing. He was claimed by trainer Michael Maker for $16K earlier this year and has won four races since for his owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey who seem to be winning with everything lately. Not sure why he didn’t show up in the Fiddlers Patriot but if you toss the race he looks like a major player.

MR. ONLINE has improved dramatically lately and the 97 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for finishing second in the $100K Laurel Dash in his latest is the best last-race figure in the field. He has good tactical speed and if he continues his progress he could get a piece.

It is a great betting race and we wouldn’t try to talk anyone off any of them. We are going to key BEAR TOUGH TIGER on top over LONGHUNTER and STRONG IMPACT in the exotics. We’ll also use MR. ONLINE and EXCAPER on the bottom half of the exotics. Anyone playing 20 cent supers should consider using the all button in the fourth spot.