DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: November 30, 2013

Demoiselle Stakes (Aqueduct, Race 6) by Mike Beer

Demoiselle got only six, and figures to have a heavy favorite at post time in Pletcher’s STOPCHARGINGMARIA (#6, 8-5). She’s pretty talented and comes here directly off of a 10+ length win in the Grade 3 Tempted going a flat mile, but that 78 figure assigned has to make you think that her competition was lacking, and she’s no cinch to handle the extra distance here. Horse to beat? Yes. Impossible mountain for these to climb? No.

One of Pletcher’s other entrants (he has half the field) is the maiden GOT LUCKY (#1, 5-2), and while she can certainly be given a chance to improve significantly off of her debut, she was a bit of a suck up 2nd in there after a couple of horses who were doing the racing up front, including PENWITH (#3, 3-1), who I will take to post a mild upset. I was impressed with the race Penwith ran that day as she made all the pace while chased by U.S.S O’Brien, the 3/2 favorite, and gamely kept her at bay. She was a bit late to change leads in the stretch, but continued on once she did, and she has the pedigree to handle additional distance with no problem. - Mike Beer

Comely Stakes (Aqueduct, Race 7) by Mike Beer

WEDDING TOAST (#3, 8-5) has flashed plenty of potential at the outset, and enters her biggest test to date with three straight convincing wins in tow, including last pair in which she handled several of these with ease; the nine-furlong distance figures to play more to her advantage than some of the others based on her maiden win, as it is rare to see a second time starter get her final 3/8ths in 36 seconds flat over that trip on dirt.

Main danger to her figures to be MY HAPPY FACE (#4, 7-2), who has the requisite ability, but may be better going shorter. She ran fine in the Cotillion last time while not good enough, and her only prior try at this distance was a second best performance in the CCA Oaks at Saratoga, but racing against Princess of Sylmar in there may have had more to do with the defeat than the distance did.

For a longshot include, I would look to FLASH FORWARD (#1, 20-1), who has run well over this distance a couple of times and has a good post to pull a ground saving trip. - Mike Beer

Cigar Mile (Aqueduct, Race 8) by Mike Beer

Impressive cast assembled for Cigar Mile, including a couple of Breeders’ Cup winners a few weeks ago. Of those two, GOLDENCENTS (#8, 7-2) was the more impressive performance (at least in my opinion) as, although he raced on the Friday card which saw every race being run and won over a front-end conveyor belt, he still went an almost unbelievably quick pace while in a duel, and still never gave them a chance. He has displayed this kind of talent from day one, and the flat mile feels like his best game.

I’ll be the first to admit that the classy GROUPIE DOLL (#4, 3-1) made a fool out of me in the Filly & Mare Sprint, as I was convinced that she just wasn’t the same this year and paid the price. She’s clearly a danger in here, but I’ve been against her all year, and with the story that follows her into her final career race she figures to be something of an underlay, so she will beat me again.

Instead, along with Goldencents, I will use FLAT OUT (#9, 6-1) who has been something of a forgotten horse following his failed bid for three straight Jockey Club Gold Cups, but he’s capable over the one-turn mile and will be running late. VERRAZANO (#10, 8-1) is a much tougher call in what will now be his career finale (he was initially going to retire after the BC Dirt Mile). The ability is there, but he’s a little dressed up by blowout wins over suspect competition, and has yet to overcome any adversity at all on the racetrack. I could use him at the right price, which would be the morning line, or above. - Mike Beer

Remsen Stakes (Aqueduct, Race 9) by Mike Beer

Remsen goes through HONOR CODE (#4, 9-5), who has been just about everyone’s 2014 Derby horse since making up an acre of ground in eye-catching debut, and he backed that race up every well in late-running runnerup finish in the Grade 1 Champagne. I’d feel better about him if he’d begin showing at least some positional speed at some point, but more distance figures to suit him, and this field just did not come up that deep.

I’m still not sure how I feel about the Nashua as a race, and that complicates things for me in evaluating this race as both the 1st and 3rd place finishers from that race are here, and they appear to be the main threats to Honor Code. CAIRO PRINCE (#9, 2-1) is 2-for-2 to start, and he was a convincing winner of that Nashua after staying up close on the outside of a pace that completely fell apart at the top of the stretch. I’m still not sure if I think he’s a potential top runner in this crop, or if he simply looked good beating a bad field last time. I guess I’ll find out for sure on Saturday.

Nashua 3rd finisher NOBLE MOON (#1, 6-1) was last early and made a wide run to be a no threat 3rd, but I guess ran well enough (though the race did fall apart at the top of the stretch); his debut was also a solid performance, though it should be pointed out that he was just rolling along on a gold rail that day. Again, I guess I’ll find out more on Saturday, but I’m inclined to take a negative position on the Nashua horses based on expected price.

The other horse for me will be WICKED STRONG (#7, 8-1) who I thought showed marked improvement in his one-mile maiden win after a green debut and will be a price in here. - Mike Beer

Generous Stakes (Betfair Hollywood, Race 2) by Michael Hammersly

As the old axiom goes, ‘Speed kills’. Well, you may get another example of that in its racing context here as PABLO DEL MONTE not only appears to have considerable talent, but his considerable speed may translate to him dictating things from the bell here and playing keep-away all the way around in this mile turf race.

His first two starts, both sprints on Keeneland’s Polytrack, were splendid – a 5-length debut romp April 7 and then a 7 1/2-length laughter over N1X foes there Oct. 13. Obviously the layoff wasn’t an issue, and neither was facing winners for the first time. There’s another layoff here, albeit much shorter. There are, however, some significant new hurdles – it’s first time turf, first time routing, he’s up in class and he had to ship across the country for the privilege.

However, the colt is bred to love this game. Daddy, Giant’s Causeway, was a European monster, a six-time Group 1 winner on grass, and he certainly throws grass runners. Mom, One Hot Wish, wasn’t as distinguished but she won on grass nonetheless, so this game is in his blood.

It’s first time routing, yes, but we’re only talking a mile, and the way he blasted home in that 6 1/2-furlong sprint win at Keeneland Oct. 13 indicates he can surely handle the added furlong and a half. After all, he’s not being asked to go 10 furlongs or anything like that; just 8 furlongs today, thank you. He’s up in class indeed but not significantly. And while he had to get on a plane his trainer Wesley Ward has shown he can pick his spots, can ship and win. Heck, the past couple years he’s shipped to Europe and won.

And with his speed, and no one lined up against him with close to his amount of early gas, he figures in line to be in command from the start. Ward has superb numbers off a freshening and he pumped a strong 6-furlong bullet work into this guy at Keeneland Nov. 5 (1:13.40B) before shipping here.

In other words, there’s a lot to like here. Well, except the expected short price.

But maybe you can turn a 6-5 shot into a decent an exacta that pays off at 4-1 or 5-1. AOTEAROA has done something the top pick hasn’t. Not only has he won on turf but he’s won at this trip, and in fact that win came in a stakes (the Zuma Beach at Santa Anita Oct. 6), defeating the until-then unbeaten Diamond Bachelor in the process. That was enough to earn a shot at the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and while those waters proved too deep he doesn’t deal with that kind of opposition here – unless PABLO DEL MONTE is of that ilk. He is legitimate candidate to support the exacta and if you feel PABLO DEL MONTE could be vulnerable come furlong number 8 is a most viable alternative. Another option is GLOBAL VIEW. This son of Galileo, not only a beast on turf in Europe in his heyday but one of the world’s elite grass sires, cost a pretty penny at auction ($500K). He moved to turf for the first time at Santa Anita Oct. 27 and finished well down the hill to beat maidens so he’s heading the right way to be sure. He is up in class and routing for the first time but with that pedigree and price tag there’s every reason to be optimistic. They didn’t pay that kind of money to get an allowance horse now did they?

Miesque Stakes (Betfair Hollywood, Race 4) by Michael Hammersly

CLENOR and NESSO knocked heads a couple times this fall with CLENOR getting the better of those two outings. There’s little reason to think that won’t be the case again here as despite the fact both found the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies waters too deep they still loom the main protagonists here.

CLENOR came from Ireland with forward-moving form this summer and promptly flourished in the States. She easily won her U.S. debut, her first win, at Del Mar Aug. 7, and then easily won the Juvenile Fillies Turf there Sept. 2, easily beating NESSO back into second (3 1/4 lengths). To show she wasn’t just a Del Mar specialist she next shipped to Santa Anita and rallied to win the Surfer Girl Oct. 6 (NESSO was again second, this time a closer three-quarters of a length).

That was enough to earn her a shot at the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Fillies Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita Nov. 1 but a tough post (No. 10) and sluggish start (was 13th early) had her on the outside looking in, and she wound up a well-beaten eighth. Still, those were some of the best 2-year-old fillies turfers anywhere. She faces no such opposition today and so long as there are no ill effects from that run she figures tough to handle here.

It’s most encouraging that since that BC try she’s posted two strong works (4 furlongs in :48.40B Nov.15; 4 furlongs in a bullet :48.20 here Nov. 21) to indicate she’s doing well and that there are no ill effects.

NESSO was no match for CLENOR when second to her (beaten 3 1/4 lengths) in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar Sept. 2. Remember, though, not only was that her first try on turf, but it was her first route, first try vs. winners and it came after over two months off. She was then a sharp second to CLENOR (beaten less than a length) in a turf route stakes at Santa Anita Oct. 6. Like CLENOR, that earned her a shot at the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf but like that rival found those waters too deep. She ended up on the lead that day setting a brisk pace and paid the price. Well, she’s well down in class and showed in her good second in the Surfer Girl at Santa Anita Oct. 6 she may be best from just OFF the pace. A return to those tactics certainly puts her in the mix. There’s not much between these two.

SAVINGS ACCOUNT cost a pretty penny at auction ($310K) and ran on gamely to beat maidens on turf at this trip on this course Nov. 8. She takes a hefty step up in class but may be ready for such a move. SUSHI EMPIRE is a maiden facing winners, yes, but she finished just a nose behind ‘ACCOUNT in that turf mile race here Nov. 8 so if that gal is a player here – and she is – then doesn’t it follow that this filly can be a player here, too? Darn tootin’ it does.

Hawthorne Gold Cup (Hawthorne, Race 8) by Marcus Hersh

The Grade 2, $350,000 Hawthorne Gold Cup really comes down to this: Are you with LAST GUNFIGHTER or against him?

Last Gunfighter is 9-5 on the morning line and could well go off closer to even money. If the race were run in a vacuum with all horses at optimal health and condition and a fair pace on a fair track, sure, one might be hard-pressed to stand against the horse.

But this is a classic case of “Breeders’ Cup Afterthought.” It happens regularly: A horse exits a Breeders’ Cup race initially intended for a winter break. But the horse appears to have come out of his Breeders’ Cup race in decent enough shape, the connections get to looking around, and there on the racing calendar sits a lucrative spot too good to pass.

That’s in essence Last Gunfighter’s story here. I’m not suggesting trainer Chad Brown doesn’t know his horse, or that Last Gunfighter can’t win. Just that in weighing circumstance against price, I have to look elsewhere in the Gold Cup. I have never been much of an ALPHA fan, but at perhaps three times the odds, I actually like him better than Last Gunfighter here. He’s fresher and has a lot more speed, and could take early control of the Gold Cup if things fall the right way.

Maybe I’m misreading, but I don’t think FORDUBAI is more than half his 30-1 morning line odds when the gate springs. But even at 12-1 or so, I’d be interested. This is a late-season 3-year-old with talent who almost certainly has not yet found his ceiling. Fordubai’s Polytrack form is decent, but watching him run on the surface it’s obvious he’s far more comfortable on dirt, and for that reason, his development this summer was stunted. And then, when he got back on dirt in the Indiana Derby, he was steered while rallying onto the rail, which was most definitely the wrong place to be that day. Getting him home on top would be a coup, but his price should be good enough to boost exotic payoffs even if he just nabs second or third.

MISTER MARTI GRAS is consistent but almost 7 – what you see is what you get. Five-year-old DERBY KITTEN hasn’t even run a dirt race good enough to contend. HATTASH got very good over the summer, but I have to think we saw his very best in the Washington Park ‘Cap. SUNS OUT GUNS OUT has a touch of upside; his best play surely is to make for the front end. STREET SPICE looks comparable to his stable-mate, Fordubai, and beat him last winter at Hawthorne, but Fordubai almost certainly is the better colt.