DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: November 28, 2013

Fall Highweight (Aqueduct, Race 8) by Mike Beer

CAIXA ELETRONICA (#3, 7/2) is the prototypical hard-hitter having earned over $1.1 million in this game the hard way; that is, over 68 races in a career that stretches all the way back to July 14, 2007. He comes to this year’s running of the Fall Highweight as the defending champ, and while he had kept better form and much better company on his way to victory here in 2012, he has still won half of his eight starts this year, and his victory in the Duck Dance stakes last month was his best yet, earning him an 11th career triple digit Beyer.

STRAPPING GROOM (#6, 5/2) had had a career year at the age of six. After being claimed for $35k back on May 24th, he has won 3-of-6 starts, earned over $400k, and became a Grade 1 winner with his victory in the prestigious Forego at Saratoga. There is some concern, at least in this corner, as to whether he has tailed off a bit since the Forego, as he has been unable to impact his two starts since then and was particularly disappointing in last month’s Bold Ruler after getting a clear early lead.

The Barry Schwartz/Mike Hushion entry of B SHANNY and THE LUMBER GUY (#1, 4/1) is not without its merits, though there are question marks surrounding both horses. The Lumber Guy is clearly the more talented of the duo, but he has been badly off form since a gutsy effort in last year’s Breeder’s Cup Sprint; while B Shanny, who has held form over a long series of races, just appears a cut below some of his competition here, though he does have some speed which may play well in the Highweight.

For the top slot, I’ve narrowed it down to PALACE (#5, 5/1) and SAGE VALLEY (#7, 3/1), and will likely let price dictate the play. Palace has been the beneficiary of two perfect trips in a row since switching back to dirt, but he’s run well both times, and has made very few mistakes since claimed by Linda Rice last year: 7 starts on dirt, 5 wins, 2 runnerup finishes by less than a length. He’s in form and has a nice stalking style.

Sage Valley may be a more difficult call, and he’s certainly a horse I’ve had a tough time reading in the past. He’s bombed in two straight races, but they were both contested over sloppy/sealed tracks, and if you can give him the surface excuse, there are a series of 100+ Beyers on his card dating back to last October. He also drew an excellent post for an outside stalking trip, and starts for the hottest trainer on the grounds, which cannot be understated considering how Rudy’s horses have been running since racing switched to his home track.

Sidney O. Underwood (Betfair Hollywood, Race 4) by Marcus Hersh

This is a weird race. I come up with more questions than answers.

Start with the morning line: Is HANDSOME MIKE really going to be 3-1 off two 8th-place & two 10th-place finishes while MAJESTIC STRIDE is 2-1 coming of three sharp races, the last of which was a close fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint? At 2-1, I’d have no problem getting behind Majestic Stride, but the thought is he drops significantly lower than that, making straight betting less appealing.

Other questions: Did Jeff Bonde, Majestic Stride’s trainer, just toss ANILLO in to make sure this race didn’t get scrapped for lack of entries? Or is this 3-year-old sitting on a major leap forward – the sort that Majestic Stride took between his races in September and October? And another morning-line question: Could Anillo really be as short as 6-1? I don’t see how.

What about CHOSEN MIRACLE? His last 11 starts have been on turf, but he has a 3-1-1-1 record on synthetics. Why hasn’t the barn given him another synthetic look since August 2011?

COLOR OF COURAGE? Coming back for first start since July 2011, his second return from a layoff of well over one year?

A couple positions I will take. First, I’m all against ROMAN THREAT. He returned from a year-plus break a shadow of his brilliant early-career self. This looks like wishing and hoping time from the connections, and my feeling is he’ll never bounce back to his best. Second, I can’t see anything to like about Handsome Mike, especially at anything close to those published odds.

Hate to resort to the chalk, but think Majestic Stride doesn’t bounce from his BC Sprint run, and to these eyes, his pedigree looks like one that could produce a performance on synthetics superior to what he’s shown on dirt. I’d key him and fool around with Anillo and Chosen Miracle to round out exotics.

Falls City (Churchill Downs, Race 11) by Marty McGee

The first thing to know about the Falls City is that #3 Fiftyshadesofhay (the theoretical highweight with 120 pounds, considering 3-year-olds still get 3 pounds from their elders in the fall) is scratched.

The second thing to know is this race most likely will NOT set up like the Chilukki did, i.e., as a one-turn race with a blistering pace. Knowing that, perhaps it’s best to downgrade the way Don’t Tell Sophia came running past a bunch of these after being conserved early. Indeed, with the stretchout to two turns and nine furlongs, this could unfold in a dramatically different way, and we’ll give Magic Hour a big chance to fare far better than she did as one of the Chilukki front-runners.

In fact, Magic Hour defeated Don’t Tell Sophia two starts back when allowed to walk the dog out front. With the possibility of that scenario occurring again, let’s get Magic Hour (#5) a big chance at a price (12/1 M/L, although that’s without the fave out yet) to at least hold on for a share in this Thanksgiving Day fixture. Let’s also use her with the two reliable ones, Flashy American (#1) and Don’t Tell Sophia (#9) and sprinkle in the likes of My Option (#6) and Wine Princess (#8).

The bet: Key #5 up, back, sideways and any-other-ways with the other contenders mentioned here, sing her in tri’s and supers as the key play 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, such as: 5 with 1/9 with 1/6/8/9; 1/9 with 5 with 5/6/8/9; and however many other variations thereof you care to spread with.