DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: November 23, 2013

River City, Churchill (Race 9, 4:37 ET)

by Marty McGee

Obviously there are a multitude of angles from which to attack the River City, which with its incredibly well-matched field of 14 shapes up as a sensational betting race. Where to begin …

Clearly there are a number of proven entities in here, such as the defending champion, Keep Up (#4), and the 118-pound highweight, Daddy Nose Best (#9), but there are at least a half-dozen sleeper types whose best efforts would put them right there, such as Villandry (#1), Exothermic (#6), and Seruni (#8). Of those, maybe Villandry has the most upside; he was disappointing on the Kee Poly in the Fayette, but he gets Leparoux and the rail when moving back to the grass and stands to rebound with a huge one.

Even with all that, what about Coalport (#7)? Throw out his off-the-turf effort in the Shadwell Mile on that weird Saturday at Keeneland, and he certainly fits with these. Even with the Ramseys and Catalano on his side, he’ll be a big price, and if he runs back to his Arlington and Kentucky Downs efforts, he stands to make his presence felt.

Wagering-wise, this just has to be a spread race, but for a key in the verticals, let’s lean most heavily on Coalport.

The bet: Key #6 up, back, sideways and any-other-ways with the other contenders mentioned here, i.e., 1, 4, 6, 8, 9. For back-up tickets, it might not hurt to also use #1 mixed-and-matched with the others, too.

Delta Jackpot, Delta (Race 9, 5:15 ET)

by Marcus Hersh

In case you hadn’t noticed, this is not a very strong field for a $1 million race. In fact, it’s much easier to pick holes in the form of nearly all these horses than it is to find favorable qualities.

Let’s start at the top: RISE UP is very much the horse to beat here, but might not be bet accordingly, which would make him somewhat appealing as a straight wager, and even more so as an anchor for multi-race bets. The 10 post is a good draw for this horse, as the run to the first turn in the 8.5fs race around a bullring goes on and on and on. Rise Up does not want to be caught inside other speed horses, and from here he and Delta ace Gerard Melancon can sit and spy what the other speeds want to do. The horse has pulled hard early in the past, but Melancon is good at anchoring a tough horse, and Rise Up settled decently last time. Very impressive that he shook off a rival at the quarter-pole and finished with good energy after contesting such a hot pace. He’s since worked sharply, I think he’s ready for a big performance, and he’s almost certainly good enough to win this if he delivers one.

Morning-line favorite COASTLINE doesn’t have as much going for him as Rise Up. He’s drawn inside, never has been two turns, and is a Delta newcomer. He won solidly last out at Churchill but got a perfect trip in so doing, and the horse he shrugged off in the stretch came out only a $50K maiden-claimer. Using him, but not loving him.

CASIGUAPO will get betting support & no doubt comes out of the toughest races of anyone in this field. My feelings about him have changed for the positive since first seeing the past performances, and he did not have the best of trips from the rail while racing without Lasix last time in the Champagne. He looks like a fairly athletic horse with some pace, and he might suit the Delta strip, though jockey Luis Saez has only one ride on a bull ring in his career, albeit a win at Charles Town.

Trainer Doug O’Neill has had Jackpot success before, but I’m not feeling RUM POINT. He supposedly got the wrong trip in the Breeders’ Cup, but even excusing that performance, how much is there to like about his previous four starts?

Of the longshots, I’d give WHYRUAWSOME the longest look. He’s better than his last two races, and with luck can save ground and rally past tiring horses from the rail. His debut win suggested there’s enough talent inherent there.

RANKHASITSPRIVILEGES and his 1-1 record might garner some support, but that KEE MSW score did not impress. The colt was under a hard drive while failing to change leads, and won a race where two of his six rivals barely lifted their feet.

Canadian shipper BIG BAZINGA was not flattered when the horse that beat him in the G3 Grey, Ami’s Holiday, ran flat last weekend at Woodbine.