United Nations Stakes by Marcus Hersh

Looks like a field of nine for the Grade 1 United Nations with Lochte apparently going instead for an allowance race next week.

Trainers who have won the race six out of the last 10 years – Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, and Graham Motion – have horses in the race, which has a major European component. There is one actual international shipper, SIDE GLANCE, but two other Euro imports, GHURAIR and MAIN SEQUENCE, who could have a say. North Americans TWILIGHT ECLIPSE, CHARMING KITTEN, and KAIGUN all rate a chance in a very difficult race.

I sided with the 5-year-old gelding Main Sequence on top, but that is obviously only a guess. Main Sequence is unraced since October, when he finished eighth facing top-class competition in the Group 1 Champion Stakes, but long layoffs are no impediment to successful performances from Graham Motion-trained runners. Motion also does very well (27% wins from his last 22 starters) with overseas imports, and Main Sequence clearly is good enough to contend if he can adapt to American grass racing. His good race two summers ago at York, an English course more similar to American racetracks than many European tracks, is a positive sign, and Main Sequence appears to have a touch of pace, a plus in a race lacking much speed.

Ghurair was mentioned by John Gosden as a Secretariat Stakes possible last summer but he neither made the trip here nor raced again after May in his 3-year-old season, and when Ghurair returned to the races this year he was with Chad Brown in New York. He needed every yard to win a second-level allowance race last out, but check out how he rallied into a slow pace going nine furlongs. It was a good performance and one that could lead to something better if, as seems possible, Ghurair suits this longer distance. Side Glance has run against some of the best horses in the world during an ambitious campaign the last year, but he won only once the last two calendar years and is poorly drawn wide this race. His somewhat troubled third last summer in the Arlington Million shows he handles North American racing and is good enough to get a piece of this.

American turf horses almost always get stomped in Dubai, and Twilight Ecplise was no exception. He can be forgiven a late fade last out in the two-mile Gold Cup at Belmont and figures to try and win this on the front end – and that’s a plausible scenario.

Charming Kitten won the aforementioned Gold Cup, but stayers’ race is an anomaly in American racing, and his form in more typical spots – like this one – is far less convincing.

Kaigun might well have run the best last race of the whole bunch, finishing second in the Manhattan, biut he has been more a miler type through his career, and the addition of still another furlong today probably hurts more than it helps. Moreover, Kaigun has turned in three peak performances in fairly short order and seems more likely to regress than repeat.

Salvator Mile by Marty McGee

Assuming this big field holds together, this should be a terrific betting race, with the “name” horse Itsmyluckyday (#7) a tepid 3-1 M/L fave in what’s a well-balanced field with sleepers aplenty.

Besides Itsmyluckyday, there’s the Jacobson entry (7-2 M/L, although at least one will probably SCR) of the suddenly surging Stormin Monarcho and the ol’ NY-bred stalwart Spa City Fever. The former clearly is a danger off those huge Delaware BSFs; the latter, not in career-best form. If ‘Stormin stays in, he’s a major consideration, especially with that nice rail draw.

Otherwise, we’ll take a pass on Itsmyluckyday, knowing he didn’t face much in those back-to-back wins in overnight stakes, and try for something a little more imaginative, that being Bradester (#2, 10-1 M/L), who adds Lezcano after a sparkling series of works at Churchill for Kenneally. This one has been known to run the occasional big one, and given how fresh he’ll be, look for him to be up close throughout.

The play: Key #2 in 1st and 2nd in verticals with these other contenders, #1, #3, #5, #9, #10.