DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Monmouth Oaks
RIA ANTONIA is the class of the field as a runner whose number was put in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, a race in which she finished second by a nose to eventual champion She’s a Tiger. RIA ANTONIA’s other notable credentials include runner-up finishes in both the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks in April and the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks in her most recent out June 28. RIA ANTONIA was the favorite in the latter race that was won on the front end by SIZE. RIA ANTONIA did well to close for second in the slop, and with a bullet five-eighths move since she seems to be coming into another strong effort for trainer Tom Amoss, who is in the midst of a memorable year at the track. RIA ANTONIA might also get a decent setup behind a handful of her rivals, and has the benefit of again facing fillies after meeting males two starts ago in the Preakness.
SIZE ran a bang-up race in her two-turn debut last out, when she rolled by a length and a quarter in the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks. It was run over the same mile and a sixteenth distance she will travel in this spot. SIZE has shown quality from the start. She won the first two races of her career between Gulfstream and Aqueduct, then was second in her stakes debut at Belmont Park before popping a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 91 in the Iowa Oaks. The number is also the best ever put up by any of the starters in the Monmouth Oaks. SIZE has natural speed, and could get an ideal tracking trip behind OFFLEE GOLDEN and CASSATT. On a few other points, note SIZE does not race with Lasix and that she will be toting eight more pounds in the Monmouth Oaks than she did in Iowa.
OFFLEE GOLDEN exits a quick-paced stakes in which she finished second and earned her best career Beyer Speed Figure, an 85. She makes the move to two turns for the first time and depending on how things fall at the break, she could take these a long way on the lead. The main concern would be that she might get hooked by CASSATT, another sprint-to-route prospect. However, like that OFFLEE GOLDEN draws outside of that rival. As for the distance test, OFFLEE GOLDEN is by Offlee Wild, a Grade 1 winner over a route of ground who overall banked more than $900K going long. OFFLEE GOLDEN’s dam registered both of her wins in sprints and to this point her three foals to race have had all of their success sprinting. The foundation of races OFFLEE GOLDEN has should serve her well at the two-turn trip.
CASSATT is stretching out in distance and on the move from five furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth, suspect she will be quite prominent. This will be her stakes debut, but not her first trip at the distance. CASSATT started her career at a mile and a sixteenth and ran a solid race in a maiden allowance at Churchill Downs. She shows some strong recent works for the return to routing, and suspect she could show the way or track arguably her main pace rival, OFFLEE GOLDEN. CASSATT is by Tapit, the sire of divisional leader Untapable and recent Grade 2 West Virginia Derby winner Tapiture.
AIBILIN is a Grade 2-placed runner that might offer some value as she seeks to nail down her first stakes win, and first victory at two turns. AIBHILIN gets pedigree support for the distance demands, and as a runner with natural speed she might get a nice tracking trip in what might prove to be a tactical advantage in a large field. AIBHILIN also might be sitting on a peak race in her third start since October.
JOINT RETURN was the favorite in the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks, but did not get the break and was also hung wide. She finished a bold second, and for this trip will add blinkers, which is a high percentage equipment move for her trainer, John Servis. JOINT RETURN is one of the most accomplished members of the field as a three-time stakes winner, and she can take advantage were OFFLEE GOLDEN, CASSATT and others to make for too much tempo up front as she has a strong closing kick. More than capable.
SAINTLY JOAN is a winner over the main track at Monmouth Park, and she’s the lone horse in the field who can make that claim. She’s also moving back to dirt after a turf stakes appearance. SAINTLY JOAN is out of the same mare as the multiple Grade 1 winner Iotapa, an earner of nearly $800,000 who is by Afleet Alex.
LADY PARADIME is from a mare who won seven races and more than $200,000. She exits the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks, finishing behind JOINT RETURN and AIBILIN.
AQUA REGIA faced divisional leader Untapable last out in the Grade 1 Mother Goose.
SPRING INCLUDED takes a stakes shot in top form, as she won her two-turn debut last out at Ellis Park. She must overcome the widest post, but she has natural speed.
RIA ANTONIA gets the nod on class, over the talented SIZE and the improving AIBHILIN.