DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: May 17, 2014

American Stakes (Santa Anita, Race 4) by Michael Hammersly

Learning to relax some while still utilizing his tactical speed has taken WINNING PRIZE to the top of the heap among West Coast middle-distance turfers. The one-time Argentinean hotshot came to the U.S. with significant press clipping and hoopla – and he’s showing now what the fuss was all about. Under the care of Neil Drysdale, who handled such middle-distance turf beasts as Labeeb and Hawksley Hill, WINNING PRIZE is primed for a big year. Heck, it’s already been a nice year as he won Grade 2 Arcadia nicely here Feb. 1 and the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile gamely here March 8. He’s been freshened a bit since as Drysdale maps out a plan to get to his ultimate goal: the Grade 1 BC Mile here in the fall.

And as the horse’s comfort level increases, so, too, does his effectiveness. Best of all, he can’t be pigeonholed into a specific style. He has speed, yes, but is by no means speed-crazy. He can pass horses, yes, but isn’t a one-dimensional deep closer who needs all the breaks in terms of pace and traffic. In fact, his heady combination of speed and stamina for this type of trip leads to trouble-free trips: he can sit close enough to prevent a rival from stealing a race while also getting first run on the closers and not having to worry about traffic issues. And his stamina has played out well in recent starts as he showed he could carry his talent all the way to the line at these middle distances. And while he can likely be effective at up to 1 1/8 miles, this particular trip (1 mile) may be his best game, too.

Tactically he should fall into another great trip here. No doubt classy OBVIOUSLY is the speed of this race, and for OBVIOUSLY to have his best chance he need use that speed – go right to the front and try to gallop them into the ground, a la Lure. PURE TACTICS, coming out of grass sprints where he showed ample speed, figures to be humming along early as well. That means WINNING PRIZE won’t have to make the running and those two speedsters almost surely will give ‘PRIZE a wonderful target to chase until rider Corey Nakatani decides to hit the gas.

There’s all sorts of good news here – style, sharpness, class, current form, versatility. Well, it’s not all good. Don’t expect to get rich on him as the word is out and he’s no secret any longer. In other words, expect something in the 6-5 range.

That doesn’t mean, however, you can’t take a $4.20 win payoff for your $2 bucks and try to turn it into a $10 or so exacta payoff for your $2 bucks.

SILENTIO has done some of his best work on this course (won the 2013 Grade 1 Kilroe Mile; rallied for third in the Grade 1 BC Mile here last fall). He kept to his task decently to be fifth in this year’s Kilroe Mile, but couldn’t catch WINNING PRIZE. Still, he was beaten just two lengths, hardly a gap he can’t overcome. He’s been working well, too.

OBVIOUSLY hasn’t run since setting a hot pace in the Grade 1 BC Mile here Nov. 2 and faltering to fifth behind Wise Dan. He’s been working lights out and is proven fresh. He won this race at BHP last spring and a return to top form can make him elusive. But his last three starts of 2013 didn’t show the same verve he’d exhibited prior. Also, there’s other speed in here and WINNING PRIZE doesn’t figure to let OBVIOUSLY get too far away.

SMART ELLIS is interesting. He hasn’t been seen in over a year and was doing the bulk of his work going longer. However, he returns as a first-time gelding with some smart works for a Hall of Fame trainer (Mandella) who could surely have opted for some other spot. The fact Mandella puts him in into such a tough spot off this kind of layoff is intriguing. He’s Grade 2-placed so he’s got some quality.

Gallorette Handicap (Pimlico, Race 9) by Michael Hammersly

So who said you can’t teach an old dog a new trick?

From day 1 SOMALI LEMONADE was a closer. We’re not just talking that she came from just off the pace. No, she would lag way back and make a big run. It worked on occasion and hinted at big things (she rallied for 2nd beaten just a head in the Grade 1 Garden City on turf at BEL in September 2012) but more often than not she was like that driver who stepped on the gas late only to get you to the airport just in time to see your plane taking off.

But things have changed. The first hint came last July when she STALKED the pace (albeit a very slow) and finished well to win a Grade 3 at PRX. Some speed was shown, too, in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. Trainer Michael Matz added blinkers for her first start this year, the Grade 3 Marshua’s River at GP Jan. 4 and that resulted in more early focus – and more late focus. She stalked in 3rd (and the pace was decent), made a smart run to grab the lead by midstretch and finished a good 2nd to sharp winner Naples Bay.

It looked as though they were on to something. They were. Brought back in an N3X on the KEE turf April 13 she went right to the lead. These were phony splits, either as she set a solid pace for the mile event. What’s more, from her position up front she blew the race wide open with a strong run into the lane, opening up a three-length lead. A couple closers narrowed the gap but the issue had already been put to bed. She won by 1 1/4 lengths.

This newfound speed is most appealing. This isn’t to say she’s now some speedball or need-the-lead type. Far from it. What it does mean, though, is she can be in a good spot from the start and that she is no longer completely reliant on pace and traffic and racing luck. She can be well positioned to stalk if someone proves quicker, or, as the KEE race showed, can take up the mantle and control things if they so desire.

A bullet work at FAI May 4 says she’s feeling good and holding her edge. And her price should be more than palatable, likely in the 4-1/9-2 range.

WATSDACHANCES was second the 2012 Grade 1 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (to Euro beast Flotilla) so big things were expected in 2013. Well, she ran decently (three-time Grade 2-placed, rallying 4th in the Grade 1 Garden City Sept. 14) but couldn’t quite get over the hump. She dropped in class and rallied from well back to win a stakes on the AQU sod Nov. 9. But then came the end to the New York turf season so she was put away and makes her first start since. She’s got loads of quality and while she rallied from well back in her last couple outings there have been other efforts where she was effective from just off the pace so she’s not some one-dimensional deep closer. She is stuck on the far outside but there is a bit of a run before they get to the clubhouse turn for rider Javier Castellano to get her over and not get hung out to dry.

STRATHNAVER has won at 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/2 miles so she can handle any trip. She finished smartly to be 3rd in the Grade 3 My Charmer on the CRC sod Dec. 7 (beaten less than a length). She got some time off (four months) came back in the Grade 3 Doubledogdare on KEE’s Polytrack, had a brutal post (No. 10), bided her time and finished smartly for 4th. That race should set her up nicely for this and while she certainly handled the synthetic well this (turf) still figures her preferred footing.

Vagrancy Handicap (Belmont, Race 10) by Marcus Hersh

Lion DNA already won the Skipat Stakes on Friday at Pimlico, and while Rudy Rodriguez likes to run on short rest, I doubt the filly will be making a 24-hour turnaround. Which is too bad, because I picked her to win the Vagrancy. That means I’m scratching into KAUAI KATIE, and I’m none too happy about it.

I have no strong or even moderate opinion about who, specifically, among her four remaining rivals, can beat Kauai Katie, but I do feel that one or more of them can beat her. Kauai Katie was once a formidable sprinter, and who knows, perhaps she will be again, but to this point, she has simply not been the same horse since her win two Januarys ago in the Forward Gal. Not even close to the same. Her brilliance is gone, and while for some horses, learning to come from off the pace is a favorable factor, it doesn’t seem that way in this case.

Unless you are a mega-whale, there is nothing to be gained by playing Kauai Katie to win or making her a single in pick-whatevers. Yes, a repeat of her most recent race would probably suffice against a very modest group, but horses in apparent decline shouldn’t be counted on to reproduce a recent race – especially at odds of 1-5.

Dixie Stakes (Pimlico, Race 11) by Marty McGee

This is a fascinating renewal of the Dixie, which most likely will stay on the grass (along with the other Sat. Pim stakes) despite quite a bit of rain here Friday morning. The M/L fave is Hey Leroy (#6), and his ascent into peak form is undeniable, but he might actually be a one-track pony (GP). With all the other alluring alternatives in here, we’ll definitely try to beat him.

If you don’t want to use the Dixie as a key event in a multi-race wager route (which might actually be preferable, especially if you have a strong Preakness opinion), then let’s line them up vertically by considering decent price plays such as Nutello (#2), who likely needed his last; Charming Kitten (#3), just plain solid at this level for TAP and Johnny V.; Roadhog (#4), a huge effort off the bench for underrated E.Merryman; Chamois (#7), who will be as ready as any of ‘em when coming out of mothballs for one C.Clement; Up With the Birds (#8), the Canadian HOY who stands to benefit in a big way from that Kee comebacker; and Utley (#9), the class-proven Sheppard stalwart who makes the third start in his form cycle.

The play: To box all 6 of these in a 50-cent tri would cost $60, which seems prohibitive, so if you’d rather key 2 or 3 of them to reduce the cost of the tickets, then the “leans” from this corner are Nutello, Chamois, and Utley. Let’s get lucky here because this race will be worth cashing on.

Red Bank Handicap (Monmouth, Race 11) by Byron King

ADMIRAL PERRY, 8-1 on the morning line for the Red Bank, is the value play of the race; he comes off a pair of competitive tries on the synthetic at Keeneland and is now returned to turf, a surface he likes perhaps as much; wish he were the type to win more often, but he’s a price. MIDNIGHT CELLO can handle the turf, but his best chance is if this race is transferred from turf to the main track; he ran a fine second at Calder recently in such a race. ROSE BRIAR, on the other hand, prefers the grass over the main track; he ran a career-best 98 Beyer in winning a stakes-quality starter allowance Mar. 9 at Gulfstream – though a fast pace in that race set it up to be run in quick time.

Preakness Stakes (Pimlico, Race 12) by Marcus Hersh

Don’t have much to add to all the handicapping discussion regarding the Preakness, and feel a little stupid as a devout chalk-opposer siding with the odds-on favorite CALIFORNIA CHROME, who, as has been widely documented by reasonable observers, is on a grand run of great racing luck. He also has a potentially difficult draw, and if things don’t go write, could end up in behind horses for the first time in several races. And being in-behind has not worked out well for the colt before.

And yet the opinion remains that he’s going to win. I don’t think any of the new players are good enough to beat him, barring really bad luck, and in my mind, there’s just little doubt that California Chrome, this week at Pimlico at least, is a better horse than Ride On Curlin and General A Rod, the two other Derby horses.

The Derby doesn’t appear to have drained him. His weight looks good, his coat looks good, he’s galloping well – holes like that just aren’t visible. He might not be a great Derby winner, but everything is relative, right?

I do believe there’s a wide range of pace possibilities here: A 46.01 half wouldn’t surprise me, nor would a 47.83. Everyone talks of SOCIAL INCLUSION and BAYERN as the main speed players, but if these two are the main speeds, the pace could well turn tepid. Social Inclusion, recall, does have an off switch, and he displayed it slowing down the pace in his allowance-race win over Honor Code. Bayern is blinkers off, with his trainer talking about running at a target and not leading this time.

Even with a fast pace, Social Inclusion could run big, and if I were the Cal Chrome camp, that would be the only horse I fear. He has brilliance and upside, and had a very good work here Monday. Social Inclusion could turn out to be a miler type, but the Preakness tends to play shorter than its actual 9.5-furlong distance. Many of the best-performance “new shooters” have come out of one-turn races, and while Social Inclusion exits the Wood, he’s that kind of speed-leaning horse.

RUDE ON CURLIN has a great chance to get into the trifecta, and the wide draw shouldn’t prove that much a hindrance. He’s better than his Derby run and has made a favorable physical impression this week.

DYNAMIC IMPACT really got whacked at the draw landing the rail. He won the Illinois Derby from post 1, but his rider said the colt never got comfortable until he was switched to the outside for the stretch run, and extricating himself from the inside in this spot will be dicey. I think he’s capable of getting a piece, but I downgraded him after the draw.

Never thought GENERAL A ROD was in the elite of the division, and don’t like his draw at all. Not using. Same with KID CRUZ. I’ve looked pretty closely at a lot of years’ worth of Preakness charts the last couple weeks, and one thing has come clear: Deep closers like Kid Cruz don’t get it done. And if you actually pay attention to what the trainer says, this race – believe it or not – is a prep for the Belmont. RING WEEKEND and RIA ANTONIA seem too slow. Ride on Curlin and Social Inclusion will land in the top slot in some of whatever I play, but I expect this trail to go on to Belmont with a Derby and Preakness winner going for the Triple Crown.