DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: March 29, 2014

Rampart Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 4) by Michael Hammersly

They thought enough of her last year to try her against the boys in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. OK, so she’s not Rags to Riches but this is still a quality, quality filly. After a busy spring they put her away and she worked very nicely this winter. They brought her back in a sprint here March 8 and she fizzled as the heavy favorite, but that was the first time in her life she’d sprinted, so that’s not her game. Maybe that run should be best viewed as a sharp 7-furlong workout. If it wasn’t a race and you saw that kind of 7-furlong work time-wise you’d say she’s locked and loaded.

Not only is it a great sign trainer Todd Pletcher brings her back fairly quickly, but surely the move back to routing plays to her strength. She didn’t run terribly in that sprint, either; she ran like a horse who needed the race. Well, she’s had her race, has a strong work since and with none of the division heavyheads lined up against her she can move forward and prove very tough to handle. And maybe that sprint loss will scare some potential suitors away, keeping her price palatable, say in the 5-2 range.

Another reason her price may still playable is the presence of in-form DEVIL’S CAVE, who figures to be favored. She’s likely never faced anyone like UNLIMITED BUDGET but unlike that rival she comes here with recency, sharp current form and proven ability over this track. It may be enough to make her a significant favorite over ‘BUDGET, possibly in the 7-5 range.

She has eight top-2 finishes in her last nine starts. That includes two victories in four starts here. She took a state-bred stakes Dec. 29, was second in the Sunshine Millions Distaff here Jan. 18 and then a dazzling winner (set a track mark) in the Grade 2 Sabin here Feb. 16. Of course, in the Sabin she dictated the pace. But she’s no need-the-lead type as two of her four wins were from off the pace (though both were sprints).

The trouble for ‘BUDGET and the others is that again there isn’t much speed signed up here to hinder DEVIL’S CAVE early. TRIPLE ARCH has speed, yes, but try as she might she was unable to keep pace with ‘CAVE in the Sabin. MOLLY MORGAN has shown speed at times but there’s no reason for them to send her hard to help the others. Her best chance is likely to stalk so it’s hard to envision ‘MOLLY’ as the one who hounds DEVIL’S CAVE.

In other words, it may well be déjà vu all over again, that DEVIL’S CAVE sends, clears and leads them on a merry chase. The good news for the UNLIMITED BUDGET backers is that she has shown speed before – one of her wins came wire to wire and she was chasing a :44 and change half-mile split in that March 8 comeback sprint. So it may well fall to her to do her own heavy lifting, that she’ll have to be close enough to DEVIL’S CAVE to pressure her and that when she pounces her class can tell the tale.

Gulfstream Oaks (Gulfstream, Race 6) by Marty McGee

Just on general principle, this seems like the right kind of spot to take a stand against the (presumed) favorite, that being the TAP filly, In Tune (#6, 2-1), who makes her stakes debut as the M/L choice versus some fillies with more seasoning. Yes, she’s been fairly impressive in both starts, but it’ll take a best-yet effort to turn back all these, and we’ll be skeptical as we take a different approach.

Let’s go to the far outside with The Chief and his on-the-improve Distorted Humor filly, House Rules (#8), who figures to get a nifty stalk-and-see trip on the stretchout. Let’s tie her up in some vertical plays with a couple of other fringe horses, America (#1) and Whomping Willow (#5) while knowingly taking a calculated risk that In Tune just won’t pass her first major test.

Orchid Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 10) by Ron Gierkink

It would be surprising if VIVA RAFAELA isn’t on a clear lead in this 12-furlong marathon, and she could make all the running, regardless of the course condition.

VIVA RAFAELA shook loose up front in the 11-furlong The Very One Stakes at Gulfstream Feb. 15, but appeared to lose a little momentum when two geese got in her way on the second turn. She stayed on well until deep stretch, but got caught on the wire for second while ending up just a length and a quarter behind the sharp winner INIMITABLE ROMANEE.

VIVA RAFAELA has never run this far, but is capable of staying the trip at a square price if things go her way. There’s rain in the forecast, and she won the Group 1 Brazilian Oaks over a course labeled soft in 2012. She also prevailed over good ground in an optional event at Gulfstream in November. Her trainer, Todd Pletcher, has won the Orchid four times.

Use INIMITABLE ROMANEE underneath in the exacta. She raced three-wide most of the way in a stalking position in The Very One, before kicking in strongly through the lane. The pace she set en route to a victory two back in the Grade 3 Long Island at Aqueduct was pedestrian, so it seems unlikely that she’ll challenge for the early honors here.

Other prospects for the bottom of vertical wagers are AIGUE MARINE, ANJAZ and ANTONIA AUTUMN, who is competing beyond nine furlongs for the first time with ample stamina in her bloodlines.

Fair Grounds Oaks (Fair Grounds, Race 7) by Byron King

A field of five, in which there only appear to be three legitimate candidates to win, makes this race a tricky race to get much of a return in the win pool. The focus will then be to hit the exacta, with the angle being to try to beet UNBRIDLED FOREVER out of it. UNTAPABLE is the most likely winner, having won the Rachel Alexandra in the top performance of the year by a 3-year-old filly; a repeat of that race would make her difficult to defeat, and even with some degree of regression, she could still prevail yet again.

FIFTYSHADESOFGOLD, the probable third choice in the wagering, is the key to betting this race. If she can crack the exacta, a little money can be made. She impressed in her comeback, and despite a sprint pedigree, her size and body type hints of route success; use her beneath UNTAPABLE in the exotics, and go with a smaller “saver” exacta ticket with FIFTYSHADESOFGOLD on top. As for UNBRIDLED FOREVER, she has won two in a row, including the Silverbulletday, but she beat little in the latter race; perhaps not as good as the hype. -Byron King

Appleton Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 11) by Byron King

MR. ONLINE, who raced for $25,000 last summer at Parx, has blossomed into a stakes-winning turf miler this winter at Gulfstream. Although naturally speedy, he has shown that he is a horse capable of being rated if needed, which he showed in winning a race two starts ago; admire his consistency. TETRADRACHM gave the classy Summer Front a brief scare in the Fort Lauderdale in January when second to him, before coming back and finishing fourth in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf; slight cutback in distance should be to his benefit. SALTO rallied to be third recently in the Canadian Turf at this mile distance, finishing 1 ¾ lengths behind the top choice; well drawn in post two and should get a favorable stalking trip under leading rider Javier Castellano.

Mervin Muniz Handicap (Fair Grounds, Race 8) by Ron Gierkink

To put the finishing handicapping touches on this Grade 2 fixture, one must note any scratches, which could help to determine the pace scenario.

AMIRA’S PRINCE was cross-entered in Saturday’s Pan American at Gulfstream, but he won the 2013 Muniz as the favorite and has come back to New Orleans to defend his title. He can lead or stalk, and his workmanlike win last year came after he helped to set a slow pace. He never started again until Feb. 9, when he was a prominent third in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, an effort which should set him up nicely for this engagement. Money rider Mike Smith, an excellent judge of pace, has the call for trainer Bill Mott. They have been a highly productive combo in stakes going back to when they took the 2010 Belmont with Drosselmeyer.

The versatile veteran MISTER MARTI GRAS was cross-entered in Saturday’s Grade 2 New Orleans on the dirt. The plodder won’t have much speed to run at in the Muniz, unless AMIRA’S PRINCE and SKYRING go tooth-and-nail from the outset. Perhaps the most likely pace set-up is SKYRING setting the fractions, with AMIRA’S PRINCE in close proximity.

REAL SOLUTION, who captured last year’s Grade 1 Arlington Million by disqualification, is making his first start since a five-length loss while ninth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf. Superb layoff trainer Chad Brown, who won the 2012 Muniz off a two-month break with Casino Host, has lured leading rider Rosie Napravnik on this prime contender.

A sleepy tempo may also hinder the stretch runner POTOMAC RIVER, but he could be along to complete the trifecta behind favorites AMIRA’S PRINCE and REAL SOLUTION if the turf is firm. AMIRA’S PRINCE will be my key in horizontal wagers.

Skip Away Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 12) by Ron Gierkink

Trainer Ken McPeek, who has been mired in a slump at the current Gulfstream meet, could have a sneaky-good longshot here with WAR DANCER, a late-running turf expert.

WAR DANCER’s dirt form isn’t as bad as his record on that surface would indicate. In last year’s Grade 1 Travers, he made up some ground on the outside from the back of the pack to finish six lengths behind the victorious future champion Will Take Charge, earning a 98 Beyer Speed Figure in the slow-paced contest. WAR DANCER is making his second start following a layoff, a 20 percent angle for McPeek. If the field remains intact, he should have ample speed to run at in the Skip Away (GRAND TITO and CSABA are also entered in Saturday’s Appleton, in which CSABA is an MTO). Downgrade WAR DANCER’s chances if the track is favoring runners who are forwardly placed early.

CSABA is a viable contender, even though he’s questionable going the mile and three-sixteenth distance. The steady 5-year-old is also switching from turf/dirt for his second start off the bench, and has been facing the likes of Lea, Jackson Bend and River Seven. His tactical speed is one of his most effective weapons.

Other possibilities include MICROMANAGE, who’s adding blinkers; and NORUMBEGA, who has been idle since running a distant second to the good Romansh in the Nov. 2 Discovery. Romansh eventually won another Grade 3 stakes at Aqueduct, the Excelsior.

Pan American Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 13) by Marty McGee

Let’s start off by noting that Bill Mott sent Amira’s Prince (#7) to Fair Grounds for the Muniz and will scratch from this spot; all M/L prices should be scaled down accordingly.

There are still some attractive options left – and that’s just in the Mott barn. Slumber (#1) and Newsdad (#10) both bring interesting form to this turf marathon, and you could probably do a lot worse than throwing both into a spread-out vertical mix and seeing what happens.

Assuming Joe’s Blazing Aaron starts as an outclassed longshot with the purpose of setting a realistic pace for his Ramsey/Maker stablemate, Admiral Kitten (#5), look for both of the Mott horses to come running late. Let’s tie them up with Admiral Kitten, the obvious class of the race and deserving favorite, while also sprinkling in some fringe players in some super part-wheels or boxes, those being Vertiformer (#2) and Suntracer (#4).

Florida Derby (Gulfstream, Race 14) by Byron King

CAIRO PRINCE, a nose away from being unbeaten in four starts, galloped in the Holy Bull in his only race over this track, leaving horses such as eventual Risen Star winner Intense Holiday in his wake; was freshened by trainer Kiaran McLaughlin after that race, no doubt the best of his career, leaving him less susceptible to regression; sits the perfect stalking trip. Little obviously separates GENERAL A ROD and WILDCAT RED, who were heads apart in the Fountain of Youth and Gulfstream Derby this winter. Although WILDCAT RED edged GENERAL A ROD most recently in the Fountain of Youth, ‘RED is the more imposing horse and his pedigree is filled with more stamina; so he he is the second selection over the hard-trying WILDCAT RED.

Tokyo City Cup (Santa Anita, Race 8) by Michael Hammersly

His Argentine form stamped him a proven stayer, so when EVER RIDER came here for the Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Marathon Nov. 1 he ended up going off the tepid 4.80-1 favorite.

Unfortunately it was a disaster. He prompted the early pace but then retreated and was basically pulled up by rider Gary Stevens. According to Mike Puype, now his trainer, the saddle wasn’t right in the Marathon so Stevens just protected the horse. The 6-year-old added blinkers, stalked the pace in a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer here Jan. 1 and stayed on well to be a good third, just 1 ¾ lengths behind winner and Saturday’s foe AMERICAN BLEND.

They then tried turf here March 6. The horse didn’t fare well in two turf tries in Argentina but they opted to give it another go.

Oops.

With blinkers still on the son of Rider Stripes went far too fast too soon, setting a brisk pace under pressure in the 1 1/8-mile grass race, eventually giving way to fade to eighth (last).

Puype is convinced that not only does EVER RIDER not want turf but that is the wrong style for him. So Saturday they go back to what brought him to the U.S. in the first place – going long on dirt. Puype moves him to this marathon 1 1/2-mile trip at which he’s won twice in three tries (ran second in the lone defeat). Wins in Argentina at 1 9/16 miles and 1 3/8 miles stamp him a proven commodity playing this game.

Puype also removes the blinkers. This horse has enough natural speed (at least for this type of trip) that he can in the race from the start; he won’t be coming from miles out of it. He must deal with a couple rivals who have beaten him here but there’s a sense of urgency to this move – it’s almost as if he’s being returned to what he does best and if he’s still got ‘it’ he can be a big player. And if he doesn’t have it, well, maybe it’s time to home.

But toss that March 6 turf run and toss the BC Marathon and you’re left with a very nice third on this track going shorter than he prefers. That shows he handles this place and there were no ill effects from the BC debacle. He’s also worked in solid, steady fashion for Puype so the feeling here is we may be the best he can be. And you may see that at 6-1 or so.

The downside is his best still may not be enough. As noted, a couple of Saturday’s rivals have beaten him before and figure in the exotics picture. BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS is the deserving favorite having finished a smart second in the BC Marathon and then going on to win the Grade 3 Native Diver at BHP and Grade 2 San Pasqual here, both on the front end. He figures on the lead trying to play keep-away once more. That being said, he dueled in the Grade 2 San Antonio here Feb. 8 but gave way readily to finish sixth. He had been earmarked for a possible tilt at the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap but after his fade in the San Antonio those plans were scrapped and he instead has been freshened and pointed for this. The fact he didn’t get a crack at the Big ‘Cap makes you wonder if there were any ill effects from his San Antonio run, and whether he’s the same horse who was so sharp prior.

TIZ DYNAMIC comes here sharp and while he’s stepping well up in class here and trying a brand new ballgame distance-wise he has tactical speed to be in it from the start, has current form and being by two-time Grade 1 BC Classic winner Tiznow appears bred to go this long.

SEGWAY is intriguing. He’s proven he can handle this 1 1/2-mile trip well (third in his one try at this distance). All his work, including that good third, came on turf so we’re talking about new footing here. But he’s got class (comes out of two Grade 2s) and is bred for dirt: daddy Giant’s Causeway ran second to Tiznow in the Grade 1 BC Classic in his only dirt try, and damsire Seattle Slew only won the Triple Crown.

Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds, Race 9) by Marcus Hersh

Here are my strongest opinions on the Risen Star, the Grade 2 $400,000 3-year-old race Saturday at Fair Grounds.

- Flat Gone, Vigorish, Interchange, Quick Indian, Extra Luck, and Son of a Preacher can’t win. That’s six of the 14 to toss right off the bat, and the only one I’d vaguely consider for 3rd or 4th is Son of a Preacher.

- I’m againt Rise Up. As I wrote in the weekly Fair Grounds handicapping report, the Delta Downs Jackpot has generally not produced either true route horses or horses that transfer their Delta success to Derby prep races at more traditional racetracks. Of the last eight Jackpot winners, only Goldencents and Rule returned to win their next start. Rise Up might have distance limitations and is totally unproven in routes on a conventional track. He’s back from a winter break and is not getting an easy lead.

- It’s been a long, long time since a horse coming off a maiden win won the Risen Star. There are two such horses this year: I’m somewhat with Hoppertunity & against Commanding Curve. Hoppertunity might well be the most talented horse in the race. While he never had to leave the rail in his Santa Anita 2nd-start maiden route win, he was explosive in the final half-furlong and galloped out literally a furlong in front of any rival. But he’s back on short rest while shipping a long distance and jumping into a 14-horse field. If he wins he’s really, really good.

Commanding Curve has flashy works and caught the eye in his maiden score last fall at Churchill, but the race he won has started looking like a stinker. Fire Starter is the only one of 11 horses coming out of it to have won a non-claiming race, and he was just buried in the Southwest Stakes.

- Vicar’s In Trouble might wind up being a sprinter-miler, but I’m not overlooking him this time. He moves into post 13 with the scratch of Bond Holder, but with a good break, the wide draw isn’t going to get him beat. He’s going to be faster than the six horses drawn inside him and will secure a decent position before the first turn. Rise Up will be there, and since noted front-end rider E.T. Baird is on Interchange, it’d be no surprise if he’s hard-sent enough to make an early impact, too. But Vicar’s In Trouble turned off enough in the Lecomte to rate behind a pace that might have been slower than what he’ll see today. He small and athletic and has a lighting turn of foot, and probably will be heard from at some point.

- I came to New Orleans ready to pick Gold Hawk to win on a rebound performance off his one-paced Lecomte finish, but wound up not being sold. For some reason (he was good, not great, in his local allowance win) and went off at a crazy 13-10 in the Lecomte. The price is going up, but I’m not sure he’ll offer value. I’m using him, but not leaning on him.

- Intense Holiday is better than the meh form emanating from the surface of his running lines. Go back and watch the replays of his races & you’ll find a horse for whom things haven’t quite gone right since his MTH maiden win. He’s not good enough to overcome negative scenarios – but today’s might finally work out.