DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: March 22, 2014

Excelsior Stakes (Aqueduct, Race 8) by Mike Beer

LONG RIVER (#1, 2-5) and entry mate ROMANSH (#1A) have been installed as the odds-on morning line favorites for the Grade 3 Excelsior, and it’s hard to argue with that reading of the race. Long River appears to be the more fancied half of the coupling, as he enters the Excelsior on a three race winning streak and with a solid new Beyer top of 107 for his convincing Evening Attire win over PERCUSSION (#4, 6-1), who will take another shot at him here. Long River has the pedigree and connections to be a player in some of the bigger races going forward, assuming he continues his current upward trend, and appears to have found a spot here to enhance his credentials. I believe him to be a clear horse to beat, whether his entry mate starts or not, and am unlikely to oppose him.

His entry mate Romansh makes for a capable backup, although he is, to me at least, a bit of a tough read. It would be difficult to find two races that are more dichotomous than the two most recent efforts put forth by this horse. His 110 Beyer blowout of the Grade 3 Discovery two starts back made Romansh appear to be a horse on the cusp of breaking into the upper echelon on the handicap division, but when given that chance in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap in early February, he was a complete no show finishing far back in last. Obviously, he didn’t have to win the Donn, but that effort left much to be desired and puts Romansh in the position now of having to prove it all over again. Unfortunately for those who remain believers in this horse, he is coupled with the horse to beat, so they will have to await another day to express that opinion at the windows.

Percussion is the most likely horse to pull an upset in the Excelsior as he figures not only to be the clear speed in the race, but he enters in fine form of his own. After giving Long River a run for his money in that fast edition of the Evening Attire, Percussion returned to run a huge race in the Stymie, dueling the pace every yard before succumbing right at the end.

San Luis Rey Stakes (Santa Anita, Race 4) by Michael Hammersly

Everything here points to a classic European-style race: slow early, fast late.

After all, there isn’t much speed signed up here. FIRE WITH FIRE may be the speed, though no one will call him quick. In other words, you’re looking at a small field in which he who possesses the strongest late burst can prevail, because the likely slow pace means he won’t be too far away and have too much work to do.

Such a trip may play well for LUCAYAN, who looks to give his trainer Neil Drysdale a sixth win in this race. LUCAYAN is something of a dawdler early, as he routinely leaves himself with a lot to do. Again, the way this race may shape up that won’t be an issue, that his normal early lollygagging won’t put him so far behind. And with a likely slow pace it leaves him closer to the leaders an dif this turns into a quarter mile sprint this guy may possess the best late engine in the field.

While VAGABOND SHOES beat him in the Grade 2 San Carlos at 1 1/2 miles Feb. 8, that was not only LUCAYAN’s first start in nearly two months, but he was well back early (11th) while ‘SHOES stalked in seventh. When the real racing began, ‘SHOES was white in chess – he got to move first and with his headstart it was too much to overcome. Besides, LUCAYAN had to pitch out very wide into the lane to commence his run. By that time ‘SHOES had pretty much sealed the deal.

Again, today’s likely pace picture may mean LUCAYAN can be JUST behind ‘SHOES early, not a half-dozen lengths behind that foe as was the case early in the San Marcos. LUCAYAN also gets another two furlongs with which to work, and that could be pivotal, too. After all, LUCAYAN nearly caught VAGABOND SHOES when second to that rival in the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap Aug. 24 when ‘SHOES won and LUCAYAN was second but only a half-length separated the two at the wire. LUCAYAN was closing in on ‘SHOES with every stride that day and that was at 1 3/8 miles so today’s added furlong would only seem to play to his favor.

VAGABOND SHOES won’t be easy to topple. With Indy Point sidelined there’s little doubt this guy is the best distance turf horse on the West Coast. But as noted above there wasn’t much between these two in the Grade 2 San Marcos and LUCAYAN’s trip didn’t help. So there’s reason to believe the tables could be turned. Another good reason to taking that viewpoint is what figures a significant price difference as ‘SHOES figures to go off around even-money while LUCAYAN may be in the 3-1 range.

Inside Information Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 10) by Kenny Peck

The Grade 2, $200,000 Inside Information Stakes features a competitive field, one which is a little tough to figure in terms of race flow.

I'm going to side with the theory that the speeds will have the edge, though much of that depends on what jockey Joe Bravo does with ZIA ZIA ZIA (#5), a possible pace factor. If she runs with expected frontrunner FIVE STAR MOMMA (#1) in the opening stages she will likely compromise the chances of that runner, who seems to need a fairly comfortable trip if she's going to last going seven furlongs.

Either way, WILDCAT LILY (#4) should be ideally spotted just off the pace. She's quick enough to get involved in the early stages but she can also rate and make one run. She was no match for Groupie Doll in the Hurricane Bertie last time -- obviously no disgrace -- and though she was three lengths behind FIVE STAR MOMMA in that race she didn't run badly, making a mid-race move before flattening out. That was WILDCAT LILY'S first start off a layoff of over four months, and her works indicate she's going to come back firing with that race under her belt. Quoted at 6-1 on the Morning Line and she should be every bit of that, and at that price or better she's worth a win bet.

Bourbonette Oaks (Turfway, Race 10) by Marty McGee

What a betting race, huh? All but maybe a few of these 12 fillies can be considered contenders, but we’ll also throw a couple more on that trashpile before digging deeper – Stormy Novel, who faces the double whammy of first route and first sprint, and the “unbeaten” Sloane Square, who will offer depressed wagering value for TAP/JV and has something to prove off those relatively weak SoFla Beyers.

That still leaves us with a mess … but have a strong hunch that the outside filly, Katie’s Eyes (#12), will run a big one under CLan. Forster told me she stands to move up in a big way with the move to the Poly, and there’s sure to be some value there because of the tough post.

Let’s key her vertically every which way possible (in first, second, and even third if you must) by also salting in the other plausible players, #2, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10 … and if that’s just too many to use, then dispose of what you wish.

It seems like these exotics could really blow up the Turfway toteboard in time for the Spiral.

Spiral Stakes (Turfway, Race 11) by Byron King

WE MISS ARTIE might appear inconsistent when viewing his form at first glance, but forgivable losses when ambitiously tried in major stakes on dirt explain his hit-or-miss race record.

Looking solely at his turf and Polytrack form, he has what it takes to win the Spiral. Take note of how he ran second in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes earlier this winter on the Gulfstream turf behind a game Storming Inti, and the manner in which he won the Breeders’ Futurity last fall over Keenland over Polytrack there.

Turfway, like Keeneland, also has Polytrack surface – conditions that should suit WE MISS ARTIE – as should the race shape, which would appear to benefit a stalker like him.

TAMARANDO, like WE MISS ARTIE, is a Grade 1 winner and high-class performer. A versatile horse that performs well on dirt and synthetic tracks, he should prove a factor. He seems likely to go off favored, however, and backing a deep closer at a short price is typically not a strategy for favorable wagering returns, even on a synthetic surface. Often deep closers are pace dependent, and troubled trips.

Those digging for value should give a look to HARRY’S HOLIDAY, who won the 96Rocks Stakes at Turfway in fast time before being carried wide in a made scramble for the lead in the opening stages of the Battaglia, the final prep for this Spiral.

Not surprisingly he performed below expectations as a result, finishing a well beaten third, but with that route behind him, and seemingly with the ability to rate off the pace, a better trip is in order.

Compared to favored Tamarando, a horse that shows up every time, We Miss Artie is an inconsistent horse. Capable of competing against the best one day, he returns the next time only to finish in the middle or rear of the pack.

But examine his past performances a little closer and it is clear his form has been clouded by fevers – first Breeders’ Cup fever at 2, and then Derby fever this year at 3 – which tempted his owner, Ken Ramsey, to try him in dirt races that didn’t suit the horse as well as races on turf and synthetic tracks.

He simply could not keep up with the best dirt 2-year-olds of last year in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and with some of the elite dirt 3-year-olds of this year at Gulfstream in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.

But he did perform quite nicely in his race before the Fountain of Youth, running second in a head-bobbing photo finish in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes behind a game Storming Inti on the Gulfstream turf. That quality race was representative of his ability.

Now for the second time in his career he races on Polytrack, and his first attempt on it went quite well, with him winning the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity Oct. 5 at Keeneland, even after he was steadied into the first turn.

Although the Breeder’s Futurity didn’t rate well in terms of final time or speed figures, it was run over a rain-soaked Polytrack surface that had puddles all over it. The conditions may have contributed to the slow time.

Beyond a return to Polytrack, the other reason to like We Miss Artie is his style. He figures to stalk the pace under John Velazquez, who has been up for both of his two victories.

That should work out well with a lively pace expected from frontrunners Solitary Ranger and Almost Famous, and being tactical, he ought to get the jump on the late-running Tamarando.