DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: March 1, 2014

Tom Fool Handicap (Aqueduct, Race 4) by Byron King

CANDYMAN E ran down a loose-on-the-lead frontrunner in the Toboggan, winning in fast time, and is an older classy runner with 10 wins from 21 starts; likely not of the same class as uncoupled stablemate STAPPING GROOM, but the latter missed a start this month with a foot injury and might not be ready for his best. Regardless, the price will be better on CANDYMAN E, who is 5-2 on the line, compared to even money on STRAPPING GROOM. The latter, winner of the Grade 1 Forego last year, earned a flashy 110 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Gravesend on the inner track in late December but then missed training – as noted from the gap in his works from Jan. 21 to Feb. 12; in a must-send position from the fence and DADS CAPS appears as fast as him early. As for DADS CAPS, he nearly held off CANDYMAN E in the Toboggan, just getting run down late after drifting out. He is an honest sort who has never been worse than fourth in seven starts.

Top Flight Handicap (Aqueduct, Race 8) by Michael Hammersly

SUMMER APPLAUSE isn’t a sprinter. Yes, she broke her maiden sprinting in her second career start, at Woodbine in December 2011, but that was more a case of her simply being much the best horse, not that she likes the trip. She didn’t sprint again until this past fall when her connections tried something different – take on champion Groupie Doll in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at 7 furlongs at Santa Anita. ‘APPLAUSE was no match for that big gal but after a slow start she ran on very well for fourth. It was one of her best efforts.

Well, Saturday she finds two things very much to her liking in the Top Flight – first, she’s back to routing, surely her preferred game, and second, there’s no one like Groupie Doll lined up against her here. It’s no small matter, too, that this 5-year-old mare won this race fairly easily last year. She’s always been good; maybe just a cut or two below the best gals in the game. She hasn’t run since that Nov. 2 Breeders’ Cup engagement but trainer Chad Brown showed with Normandy Invasion at Gulfstream last week that he’s extremely good off the bench. His mare has been working in smart fashion the past month and a half or so at Palm Meadows, she’s proven here, has the versatility to give her rider options and as noted above, doesn’t face a real division heavyhead here. So what’s not to like? Well, because of those aforementioned factors you can’t expect to get rich on her, as she figures to go off in the 6-5 range. But there are too many things on the asset side of her ledger to ignore.

One reason her price won’t be even shorter is the presence of inner-track specialist TEEN PAULINE. The daughter of Tapit showed ample promise as a 2-year-old but by the time the calendar turned to 2014 she had just a Grade 1 placing and Grade 3 placing to her credit. That changed Jan. 1, however, when she came here and blitzed foes, including a couple of these, in the Affectionately, earning a 95 Beyer. That seemed a revelation so trainer Todd Pletcher brought her back against some of those same gals in the Jan. 25 Ladies Handicap and she did even better, winning a laugher by 10 3/4 lengths, geared down, for a 97 Beyer.

Either she’s turned the corner or has found her sandbox; or a combination of the two. Regardless, she’s suddenly very scary and her speed means they have to go and get her. SUMMER APPLAUSE does, fortunately, have tactical speed so she doesn’t have to lose touch with ‘PAULINE. There’s also the presence of speedster FLORES ISLAND who is quite capable of keeping TEEN PAULINE honest from the bell.

And while those last two big efforts point to ‘PAULINE turning the corner, note they don’t give her any real edge against SUMMER APPLAUSE, who Beyered 93 in this race last year and posted figs of 98 and 97 in her last two starts of 2014.

Gotham Stakes (Aqueduct, Race 9) by Michael Hammersly

Is the clock striking midnight on New York-breds SAMRAAT and UNCLE SIGH?

The two went at it tooth-and-nail for the entire 1 1/16 miles of the Grade 3 Withers, with SAMRAAT prevailing to stay unbeaten in four starts. UNCLE SIGH lost nothing in defeat, finishing 10 1/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field. Both colts seem at their best when utilizing their speed, and they figure to do so again here. That could lead to another spirited duel. What’s more, toss in Grade 2 Futurity (6 furlongs) winner IN TROUBLE who has sprint speed, and EXTRASEXYHIPPZSTER, who isn’t exactly slow early, and you may have even more pressure up front. Can either SAMRAAT or UNCLE SIGH win that pace battle – and still have enough to win the war?

In other words, this looks as it could set up well for HARPOON. The $500,000 son of Tapit makes his first start here but he’s run well in Saratoga mud, on Belmont dirt, on Aqueduct (big track) dirt, Gulfstream dirt and Tampa Bay dirt, so odds are he’ll handle this place. His second in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa last time out (Feb. 1) was very nice. He bided his time, got shoved out very wide into the lane but finished strongly to just miss by a nose to stablemate Vinceremos. In fact, if that race had been 1 1/16 miles and one jump then HARPOON likely would have won. Alas, that’s not the way the race was written up in the condition book.

It’s noteworthy, too, that trainer Todd Pletcher opted to wheel him back for this. After all, he could have waited another week and stayed at Tampa for the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, particularly as he already had MASTER LIGHTNING and MONOPOLIZE slated for this. That likely tells you HARPOON is doing awfully well, and two big recent works at Palm Meadows (4 furlongs in :48B Feb. 16, 4 furlongs in a bullet :47.80B Feb. 23) back up that assessment.

He’s on the far outside, yes, but this field may string out quickly, meaning his rider can likely avoid getting hung out to dry – he can move up and over, likely sitting midpack while the aforementioned speedsters go at it early.

His Sam F. Davis Beyer was just 82, but he’s been slowly inching up the Beyer scale and may be ready for a more significant forward move. He’ll need it against SAMRAAT and UNCLE SIGH who have been posting Beyers in the mid-90s but it’s in no way out of reach for a horse who’s run just give times.

Exotically speaking the two Empire-breds still merit a ton of respect. Each has shown speed and courage, and the ability go at least this far. Still, each knows the other’s strength (speed) and may well view this as something of a match race, meaning come that final furlong could they have been softened up enough to be usurped late by a horse like HARPOON?

Another potential beneficiary of a hot pace and some tiring speed is FINANCIAL MOGUL. He rallied well to be second in the Grade 2 Nashua on the big track here Nov. 3, a run that looks even better when you note the horse he was gaining on was Cairo Prince, who came back to be an excellent second to top-class Honor Code in the Grade 2 Remsen and then romped in the Grade 2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Jan. 25.

‘MOGUL tried the Holy Bull as well but was far back and was unable to make an impact in the lane, finishing sixth. That was not only his first start in almost three months but the Gulfstream strip has not been friendly to closers. And this guy’s sprint maiden win in the slop at Saratoga Aug. 31 shows he doesn’t have to come from the clouds, either. A bullet 1:00.60B at Fairhill last Saturday says he’s feeling pretty spry and usually when trainer Rick Violette Jr.’s horses go fast in the a.m. they tend to go fast in the p.m., too.

Swale Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 9) by Kenny Peck

Lots of horse racing fans are anticipating Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream, to witness the respective returns of HAVANA (#1) and NO NAY NEVER (#3). Those looking for races with betting values, however, will likely look elsewhere.

That's because these two favorites do look very tough, and it should be one or the other. I do feel it will be NO NAY NEVER, as he's been a personal favorite since his exceptionally sharp debut score, but HAVANA can certainly win, of course, especially if the former isn't ready off the layoff, and upon shipping from Europe. As for the others...it looks like an uphill climb.

None of them has posted a Beyer over 85, and HAVANA's "worst" figure to date is an 86, earned in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last time out. NO NAY NEVER doesn't have an official Beyer -- his debut was his only U. S. start thus far, and figures are not computed for 2-year-olds going 4 1/2 furlongs -- but if you were to apply the sprint variant from that day to his raw figure he would have earned a 96. Both have speed but can also pass horses, making them unlikely to fall victim to race flow, and though they're both back from layoffs they hail from barns which win at high rates with absentees.

So which one? If I were genuinely able to get 2-1 on NO NAY NEVER I'd take it, but I'm expecting he and HAVANA to be more like 6/5 and 7/5, one way or the other. I won't likely be betting but I will be watching with interest, as these are two extraordinary horses.

Palm Beach Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 10) by Marty McGee

Wow, what a great betting race, huh? Just soooo many possibilities here. Most intrigued by the Dania Beach romper, Mr Speaker (#10), who returns after the failed try on dirt while adding first Lasix for Shug … if there are any favorites in here, he’d have to be one.

Otherwise, this looks like a textbook shotgun-approach race, with a handful of live longshots deserving attention in both the horizontal and vertical plays. Have to summarily dismiss one of the Chad runners, Storming Inti (#1), partly because of his odds (3-1 M/L fave), partly as a front-runner who just won’t be getting away with anything ease, and partly on general principle – and as an added bonus, Chad seems to have a real sleeper in here in the French colt, Pleuven (#4), who found his best stride too late in his stateside debut in December.

That said, let’s also throw in some longer-priced horses in with decent chances and make up some trifecta and superfecta boxes with Mr Speaker and Pleuven. Those price plays include Morning Calm (#6), Smart Cover (#7), Can’thelpbelieving (#11), and Cabo Cat (#12). Tie them up, roll them up, link them up, scatter-shot them … use a little imagination, depending on the size of your bankroll, and most of all, get a little lucky.

Santa Ysabel Stakes (Santa Anita Race 8) by Michael Hammersly

At first glance it would appear trainer Bob Baffert might hold the strongest hand here with AWESOME BABY, winner of the Grade 2 Santa Ynez here Jan. 4, and Be Proud (easy winner of the California Oaks at Golden Gate Feb. 8). Trouble is, both utilize speed as their primary weaponry. AWESOME BABY surely seems quicker and coming out of a sprint where she led wire-to-wire she figures to be on the lead but BE PROUD won’t be far behind. At least she’s shown she can sit and finish and pass horses.

But another may reap the benefits of a solid Baffert pace – SWEET BLISS. The John Shirreffs trainee comes off a maiden win only, so it’s a big step up in class here but it’s no small matter that the win came on this track at this trip. She also showed professionalism as she stalked the pace (after a slow start to be sure), bided her time and put in a solid sustained run which got her home on top. That was her first route and first dirt try as well so she can surely improve.

She’s bred for this, too. Daddy (Street Cry) was a multiple Grade 1 winner routing on dirt and has produced such top-class dirt runners as Zenyatta (Grade 1 route winner on dirt, Horse of the Year) and Street Sense (Grade 1 route winner on dirt including taking the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby; champion 2-year-old). Her lone sib to race is Saint Vigeur (8-2-4-1 record, 2 wins routing on dirt, 2-time Grade 2 stakes-placed routing on dirt) and mommy’s lone win came routing on dirt.

Yes, she’s going to have to do better than that 71 Beyer but again, it was just her second career start so she can surely move forward and two nice recent works say she’s doing well.

While she runs into some nice gals here this is hardly the cream of the crop as there’s no Streaming (hurt), She’s a Tiger (champion 2yo filly; just back to work tab) or Taste of Candy (2-time Grade 1 placed but awaiting the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks). And the presence of the two nice Bafferts can help keep your price buoyed on this gal.

Surely the two Baffert girls command respect and can surely be used underneath in the exotics. Remember, ‘BABY is a question mark routing (faded badly in her only prior route, ending up a well-beaten 5th in the Grade 1 Chandelier here Sept. 28) and BE PROUD beat a weaker bunch at GG Feb. 8.

One gal of interest is SWISS LAKE YODELER. She looked super whipping Cal-breds in the Golden State Juvenile routing here Nov. 1 and then rallied to win the Soviet Problem (a sprint) over Cal-breds at BHP Dec. 21. She next tried turf in the California Cup Oaks here Jan. 25 but had a brutal post (13) and was never able to get involved, finishing 11th as the tepid 3.30-1 favorite.

She’s back to dirt today and it’s noteworthy not only that leading rider Rafael Bejarano stays with her but that she’s been working splendidly on this dirt since then (bullet 5fs in :58.40 here Feb. 21). The surface switch may be just what the doctor ordered and it’s most encouraging not only that Bejarano stays but that there’s no panicky drop by trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.