DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Longacres Mile
That leaves us with STRYKER PHD who finished second in this race last year and appears to be right on top of his game. He is 2/2 this year and both of his races were over this track. The only knock is that he is a deep closer running over a speed-favoring surface. Last year Herbie D led the whole way in his win, in the Mile and in 2012 Taylor Said was never more than a length behind. The good news is that there is a ton of speed in the field, and it should set up perfectly for him. He’s also had three sharp works since he won the Mt. Rainier on July 20 and appears to be peaking at the right time for trainer Larry Ross. According to Formulator, the past five years Ross has won with 21 percent of his starters running in stakes races at Emerald. The veteran trainer took over training Stryker Phd this year and so far he is perfect with him.
PROHIBITION is coming off a fourth-place finish in a $200K NY-bred stakes at Belmont May 31 that turned into a super key race when the first three finishers came back to win. The winner, Zivo, upgraded the race when he won the Grade 2 Suburban in his next start with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. Big Business, second, earned a 103 Beyer when he won a $80K optional race in his next start at Belmont June 28. Weekend Holiday, third, won his next two including a $100K stakes race for NY-breds at Saratoga Aug. 15. Prohibition wants to be involved early and the shape of the race might not work in his favor. He’s also been off since May 31, but he has been working well enough, and the past five years Puhich has a 19 percent strike rate with horses coming back between 61-180 days. He also won this race in 2012 with Taylor Said. If Prohibition can stalk, he could win this.
The last two Mile winners were coming off wins at Hastings and TITLE CONTENDER looked good beating TWISTGRIPS in the Dave Forster Hall of Fame Handicap in Vancouver on Aug. 4. Like Herbie D and Taylor Said, he is the dominant older handicap horse at Hastings. He has the right kind of style, fast but doesn’t need the lead, and he should get a perfect trip sitting just off speed that doesn’t figure to last. His trainer is also winning races at a 44 percent clip this year and he will be ridden by Rico Walcott, arguably the best rider in Western Canada. The big concern is that he can be a handful to saddle at Hastings, and it is hard to say how he is going to handle dealing with new circumstances. If he looks good leaving the paddock, he could be the winner.
TWISTGRIPS looks like a longshot with a chance. He moved much too soon when he finished fifth in the one-mile Budweiser won by Stryker Phd, but he came back with a sharp second behind Title Contender in the Dave Forster with Amadeo Perez aboard. It was the first time the leading rider at Hastings had ridden him, so he should know him a little better and Perez was also aboard Herbie D when he won last year’s Mile. Following a trend, he is the only British Columbia-bred in the field and if he wins he would be the third straight B.C.-bred to win the most prestigious race in the Pacific Northwest.