DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Lake Placid Stakes

It’s a four-horse race if V V GOODNIGHT opts for the Hatoof at Arlington on Saturday, and really, it’s a three-horse race even if all five turf-meant entrants line up. Of course it’d be nice if a $300,000 (!) grass race for 3-year-old fillies drew a little more interest, but the trio of MINORETTE, XCELLENCE, and CROWN QUEEN form a salty core.

Obviously she can win, but the time to bet Minorette was in the July 5 Belmont Oaks, when she was 6/1. She’s 7/5 on the morning line here, and that’s a realistic number. Minorette flashed ability as a 2-year-old in Ireland but has been more consistent in her three U.S. starts, which perhaps is attributable to the legality of race-day Lasix here. In the Belmont Oaks she got a perfect trip racing close to a moderate pace while outside and in the clear, and while she is well drawn for a similar journey, 9 furlongs around tighter turns at SAR is a different kind of race than 10fs at sweeping Belmont, and Minorette probably is an underlay.

Xcellence was cold on the tote for the Belmont Oaks and somewhat one-paced, though being held well behind those slow splits could not have helped her cause. Former trainer Francois Doumen said on multiple occasions he questioned her suitability to one and one-quarter miles; turning back to a mile and an eighth and adding Lasix could easily allow her to turn the tables on Minorette.

But I think Crown Queen could be the most exciting prospect of all. Royal Delta’s little sister was all right in two starts at 2 but has come back a different horse this summer. Her maiden win at Belmont was good, but her N1X score last month on the SAR course verged more toward brilliant. The move that propelled her to the front was flashy, and she admirably sustained it through the wire. The guess is she’s still on an upward swing and I like her to win her stakes debut.