DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: John C. Mabee Stakes

MISS SERENDIPTY isn’t the first horse to come to the U.S. from South America with big-time form and take a while to get acclimated and comfortable. The 6-year-old mare was good enough to be twice Grade 2 placed on turf in Argentina in 2013, twice Grade 3 placed on dirt there in 2012 and 2013 and then came to the U.S. after a smashing win in a Grade 1 on turf in June 2013. Her first three U.S. starts, all stakes, weren’t bad, including a solid third in the Grade 2 Santa Ana at Santa Anita March 16. But things have taken off from there. She was a sharp second, beaten just a neck (by Sunday foe Stormy Lucy) in the Grade 3 Santa Barbara there April 13. She followed that with a game nose win in the Grade 1 Gamely there May 26, defeating Grade 1 winner Emollient and Grade 2 winner Parranda. In other words, she’s got her groove back. While all her U.S. has come at Santa Anita that includes a race on dirt as well as four on turf. And as noted above, she ran well on turf (firm and heavy) and dirt (fast and wet-fast) in her native Argentina so she should have no issues with the footing here.

It’s also noteworthy she’s not only shown ample tactical speed but the ability to finish and pass horses. Her Gamely win was from off the pace. It also came at this same 1 1/8-mile trip.

She’s been freshened since and with many of the big West Coast turf gals skipping this or just not quite as sharp these days she looks well situated. It’s been reported trainer Ron McAnally envisions a potential start in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf for her, the deepest end of the pool. Of course, her Gamely success and the lack of top competition mean she may well go favored here, but she doesn’t figure to be hammered as the windows, so something along the line of 5-2 seems in the offing. That looks good from here. As far as potential supporting players for the exacta the first gal to come to mind is WISHING GATE. The 4year-old daughter of Indian Charlie packs quite a wallop in the lane and is no stranger to success here. Last summer she came here and easily won the Grade 2 San Clemente and was then a sharp second to top filly Discreet Marq in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. After inexplicably pressing the pace and wilting to fifth in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf at Gulfstream Park Jan 18 she was given plenty of time off. She returned five months later in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine at Santa Anita June 28 and after a sluggish start finished well for fourth. That should set her up nicely for this. MOULIN DE MOUGIN is another exotics candidate. She finished third in the aforementioned Royal Heroine, a half-length ahead of WISHING GATE. She seems to have a bit more tactical speed than WISHING GATE meaning she can be closer early and get first run.

Also of interest is new face EVERY WAY. The 4-year-old filly invades from the Midwest where she did good work on turf at Arlington, Churchill and Sam Houston and on wet tracks at Sam Houston and Canterbury. She comes off a very nice fourth, beaten just a half-length, in the Grade 3 Modesty on the Arlington turf July 12. The gal who won that race, I’m Already Sexy, thinks she owns the Arlington turf course (she’s 5 for 5 there) and might next be seen in the Grade 1 Beverly D. there next week, to give you an idea about the type of gal this filly nearly beat.