DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: January 4, 2014

G2 Jerome at AQU (race 8, post 3:48 ET) by Dan Illman

CLASSIC GIACNROLL earned the Jerome’s top Beyer Speed Figure when a rallying third traveling seven furlongs in the mud Dec. 7. After saving ground at the back of the pack for the first half-mile, Classic Giacnroll advanced while widest turning for home and finished well to be third. He galloped out nicely after the wire and was flattered when two of his rivals returned to win stakes (Joint Custody prevailed in the Maryland Juvenile Championship by 5 1/2 lengths with an 84 Beyer, while Extrasexyhippzster shipped to New York to win the Don RIckles by five lengths with a 93 Beyer). This will be Classic Giacnroll’s first start around two turns, but he should receive sufficient stamina from his sire, Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo. He can work out a nice stalking trip under new rider Alex Solis.

NOBLE MOON looms the horse to beat for trainer Leah Gyarmati. A longshot gate-to-wire debut winner over a speed-favoring Belmont surface Sept. 14, Noble Moon broke poorly in his first start against winners, the Grade 2 Nashua on Nov. 3. Although placed behind the eight ball early, Noble Moon received a hot pace to rally into and made an eye-catching wide move into contention on the turn. He flattened out a bit in the final furlong, but still finished a good third behind Cairo Prince, a colt that acquitted himself wonderfully when narrowly beaten by the highly regarded Honor Code in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Nov. 30. Noble Moon was entered in the Remsen, but was forced to withdraw after suffering from hives. Given an alert break from the inside post, Noble Moon should be forwardly placed, if not outright on the lead. Note that Gyarmati is only 1 for 31 over the past two years with horses returning from 61-180-day layoffs, according to DRF Formulator (She is 1 for 27 over the past five years with similar layoff horses in route races).

SCOTLAND is still a maiden, but he’s always shown promise. He sold for 124 times his sire’s stud fee after breezing three furlongs in 33.1 at OBS in April and finished ahead of two next-out graduates when finishing behind the promising Surfing U S A at Aqueduct on Nov. 30. Scotland took a strong Beyer leap that afternoon and has been working quickly at Fair Hill for trainer Tony Dutrow.

MASTER LIGHTNING didn’t do much in both the Nashua and Remsen, but took advantage of a tepid pace when besting only three others in an entry-level optional claimer over the inner track Dec. 22. He has enough speed to be in the early mix for Todd Pletcher and may appreciate a wet track.

Conversely, MATUSZAK has zero early ability and will likely need a strong pace and good racing luck in order to adequately set up his late flurry. Forgiving handicappers will note that he was stymied by glacial fractions in the Remsen, faced a very promising runner in Almost Famous at Churchill Downs, and may not have cared for the Polytrack during the Keeneland meet. Perhaps his form is sufficiently “dirtied up” in order to merit consideration for the exotics.

LAWMAKER closed resolutely to handle Buck n’ Ham Lane when scoring first out at Laurel. While that one returned to graduate by 9 1/2 lengths in his next start, he was subsequently drowned by Joint Custody in the Maryland Juvenile Championship. Lawmaker is bred for distance success as a half-brother to long-winded Last Gunfighter and trainer Chad Brown excels with maiden winners returning in dirt routes (14 for 36, 39 percent, $2.53 return on investment over the past five years, according to Formulator).

MENTAL ICEBERG was vanned off after upsetting a turf field in his debut and didn’t make a dent in the Remsen. After breaking well, he was stoutly rated despite the lack of pace up front. Perhaps he’ll be allowed to show more in the opening furlongs this time around. PIN AND WIN’s lone victory came against $25,000 maiden claimers at Calder, and his Beyers pale in comparison to those of the top contenders. He may play a part in the pace as he stretches out in distance, but he needs a career-best performance in order to threaten.

Selections

1. Classic Giacnroll
2. Noble Moon
3. Scotland

G2 Santa Ynez at SA (race 2, post 4:00 ET) by Michael Hammersly

It’s not much of a betting race with just four entrants but maybe you can utilize TASTE LIKE CANDY as a linchpin for some of your multi-race wagers early on the card.

The daughter of Candy Ride took all the worst of it in the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet. Not only was it her first route, but it was her first try against winners, first try on synthetic and she faced all that after a incurring a slight injury. On top of that, in the Starlet itself she went right out to duel on the lead, and then had the misfortune of hooking a potential Bob Baffert beast in winner Streaming. Despite all that TASTE LIKE CANDY ran splendidly, staying on well to be a smart second. Well, there are no such hardships here, though obviously there is still quality opposition. There’s no layoff to worry about. She’s already proven sprinting and on dirt and in fact proved it here (romped in her dirt sprint debut here Oct. 20). And her fine Starlet try validates that a) she’s got significant talent, and b) there are no lingering issues from what ailed her after her maiden win. She’s continued to work strongly and the fact trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wheels her back for this (he could have waited for, say, the Grade 1 Las Virgenes at a mile here Feb. 1) speaks of confidence and tells you the filly must be doing so well he doesn’t want to just sit on her for another month.

What can also help would be a return to the tactics of her debut, when she patiently stalked, took over into the lane and drew off to win with authority. There’s ample other speed signed here, primarily in the form of two more Baffert weapons CRUSHED VELVET and AWESOME BABY.

But the style of her debut win would suit her ideally here, and if by chance the pace isn’t that hot she’s shown push-button acceleration, so rider Rafael Bejarano can move early if need be. And the way she kept going in the Starlet shows she’s not likely to pack it in once they hit midstretch just because she was prompting the pace.

You’re likely not going to get rich on her, but at least the presence of big maiden winner CRUSHED VELVET may mean the price on ‘CANDY stays palatable.

CRUSHED VELVET came out smokin’ as she set the pace under pressure in her debut at BHP Dec. 8, and drew off to win in a romp. That win looks all the better when you note third finisher Fashion Plate came back to win smartly here the other day. All that being said, here it’s first time dirt and first time against winners, and you’re talking about a REAL nice winner in TASTE LIKE CANDY.

Then there’s a question of style. She led all the way to win her debut. Well, speed and being on the lead early is the forte of her stablemate AWESOME LADY right next door. Surely Baffert will instruct his two riders to NOT go toe-to-toe but if ‘BABY is indeed quicker then that means this gal also has to prove she can sit and go past horses. So, as you can see, she has a number of hurdles in her path. And while Baffert beat TASTE LIKE CANDY with his leading lady Streaming in the Starlet, can he also beat her with maybe just his No. 2 and No. 3 gals, hmmmmm? AWESOME BABY was just that winning her debut at DMR Aug. 4. She dueled and fizzled in her next two, both Grade 1 races, but has been freshened since, is back sprinting and down a notch and maybe all that can get her back on track.

G2 San Gabriel at SA (race 8, post 7:00 ET)by Marty McGee

With all those Grade 1 races on his PPs, there’s little doubt Jeranimo (#9) should and will come favored in this 9-furlong turf fixture. And even though he gets viable excuses for his last three races – the Pacific Classic was on synthetic, the Awesome Again was on dirt, and he was running against some of the world’s fastest turfers in the BC Turf Sprint – he still hasn’t been close to the front for quite some time.

So will it be worth accepting the 8-5 or so that he figures to be? Well, yes and no. Surely he’ll make his presence felt on what amounts to a sizable class drop, so he’s a must-use in the verticals – although not necessarily on the top of the ticket. That said, our search for a mild upsetter landed us on Artic North (#3), who is a nifty 1-for-1 at this course/distance and who figures to get a nice stalking trip under Talamo. Several other inside-drawn runners appear similarly capable, i.e., Te Rapa (#2), Dubai You X Y Z (#4), and Fire With Fire (#5).

The play: key #3 (and the others listed, if you must) on top in tri’s and supers while depending on #9 to rally for second or third while also mixing in a few other price plays, i.e., 2/3/4/5 with 9 with 2/3/4/5/6/11, and other desired variations thereof, including flipping the ticket so that the 9 can be third as well.