DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: January 25, 2014

Forward Gal Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 7) by Marcus Hersh

Todd Pletcher has a surprisingly salty $2.46 win ROI in graded stakes races, but ONLYFORYOU is not going to help that number much, even with a victory. She’s 7-5 on the morning line and could easily go off as an odds-on favorite.

I’m not a fan of Onlyforyou. She did improve from her debut at Aqueduct to her N1X allowance win at Gulfstream, and showed a different off-the-pace dimension in her second start. But both trips were ideal, and the competition less than fierce in either spot. Her stable-mate Sweet Whiskey’s win in the Old Hat struck me as significantly superior to either of Onlyforyou’s performances, and with the Forward Gal coming up just 21 days after that race (Question: Why would GP do that?) one has to think the connections saw a chance to slot this filly in, hope for a soft spot, & pick up a G2 win with a filly who might not be close to elite. Well, on paper, at least: Mission accomplished.

I would very much like to oppose Onlyforyou on top, but that would require a suitably appealing alternative, and all I can find among the other quintet are stabs.

Second-choice AURELIA’S BELLE did nothing to catch the eye in the Old Hat and would have been third but for an unfortunate deep-stretch breakdown. She worked back sharply and could have moderate upside. Unbridled Forever might be the top 3-year-old route filly in the country (remains to be seen) and credit to rail-drawn RESISTIVITY for running second to her two back at Churchill. But she was dusted in that race, and looked mediocre at best winning a maiden race over the local strip last out. Don’t like her at all.

If it came down to it, were I forced to play the race on its own, I supposed I’d try to partner Onlyforyou with one of the three outside-drawn fillies -- STATELY DEFENCE, MY DEAR REGINA, AND FLASH ENCOUNTER – in exactas and trifectas, but there does not appear to be a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow.

Endeavour Stakes (Tampa Bay, Race 8) by Kenny Peck

One of the keys to the Grade 3, $150,000 Endeavour Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs is the choice made by trainer Tom Bush, who cross-entered the late-running WHOLELOTTASHAKIN (#10) in this race and an optional claimer at Gulfstream on Saturday.

If WHOLELOTTASHAKIN goes in the Endeavour, she figures to be the one to fear late. She comes off a narrow loss in her latest, her first start off a short layoff. She took over in the lane in that race, against optional claimers, but was run down in the late stages by Quay. Some would view that as a negative race -- after all WHOLELOTTASHAKIN was in a prime spot behind the pacesetters and blew a clear lead in the lane -- but it wasn't that easy a trip. She had to be used to get position from post 12, and jockey Jose Lezcano probably moved her to the lead too soon. Given a better-timed run, she would have likely won the race. The resulting Beyer does give her strong credibility in the Endeavour, and she should once again be nicely positioned behind the speeds.

The horse to beat in the 1 1/16 mile Endeavour may be LEFT A MESSAGE (#11). She's unraced since running third in the Grade 3 Long Island Handicap back in November but she's been training well toward this race and she fits well on her figures. The main concern with LEFT A MESSAGE may be that this distance may be a little short for her -- she's posted her best figures, and run her best races, when she's gone longer --- but given enough pace she could be up in time.

FINAL ESCROW (#6) doesn't have the turf experience of the above-mentioned pair, having run on the grass only three times, but she ran very well in all of those races. She also fits the expected race flow as a closer, since there does seem to be ample speed to set up a horse from off the pace, and though her Beyers are a little light, and this is the best field she's faced on the green yet, she also has not gotten quick fractions up front, and she could improve if that's the case on Saturday.

SCA DOODLE (#4) and SEATTLE ME UP (#2) are the runners who are expected to set the table. Neither runner is capable of winning this, it seems, even if the other scratches, but if both stay in the pace should be better than average.

MOMENT IN DIXIE (#1) has some of the best figures in the race, and she's another who is likely to get an ideal set-up. But while she's listed at 7-2 on the Morning Line she doesn't seem likely to be that high, and she's yet to win on the grass. She'll also need to work out a trip from her inside post. She's certainly capable -- the question is whether she offers enough value under the circumstances.

I'm just playing WHOLELOTTASHAKIN to win if she's at or better than he Morning Line price of 9/2, since I can't make a strong case for any "price" horses to include in exotics.

Santa Monica Stakes (Santa Anita Race 4) by Michael Hammersly

Obviously we’re not going out on a limb here by touting TEDDY’S PROMISE as the one to beat in this 7-furlong event. After all, she won this last year and the really the only horse she hasn’t been able to threaten playing this type of game is two-time distaff sprint champion Groupie Doll, who would likely humble this field at even half-strength.

But there might be a way to turn an even-money shot into a 5-1 exacta payoff, and that’s if you can get the right outsider to take the second spot. Oh, there’s little reason to believe TEDDY’S PROMISE will be beaten here. Not only does she love this track (5 for 10 here) but is proven at the trip (3 wins) and comes off a smart stakes won at BHP Dec. 15. That day she beat Judy in Disguise back into second fairly easily. That gal went into that Dec. 15 stakes on the strength of a sharp second to Groupie Doll in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint here Nov. 2 so she wasn’t going into that BHP race as some pipedream. She was a proven commodity. And yet TEDDY’S PROMISE handled her easily.

There really isn’t anyone even as tough as ‘Judy’ in here so on paper TEDDY’S PROMISE holds all the aces. And if that’s the way it plays out on the track then the trick is to find who can run second.

Well, SCHERZINGER may fit the bill. The daughter of Tiz Wonderful has won three of her last four and that includes two wins in two starts over THIS track. The lone loss in that stretch came the only time she’s ever tried turf. Between not dealing with the footing and then having a sluggish start she was no factor, so draw a line through that race. She was freshened and came back firing, rallying to win here Jan. 2.

Obviously she’s quite comfortable on this footing and while this marks her first 7-furlong try the way she’s won going 6 furlongs bodes very well for handling the added furlong. Also, that Jan. 2 win earned a big career-top Beyer (96), which puts her right in TEDDY’S PROMISE’s neighborhood. In other words, if that gal fires that big again or improves even slightly, well, that means ‘TEDDY’ has little if any margin for error. Other possibilities underneath in the exacta are SOCIALBUG, who set the pace before finishing second to SCHERZINGER in that aforementioned Jan. 2 race here. Not only was that a good run for the daughter of 2-time Horse of the Year Curlin, but it was her first run in three months so she can surely improve. And with her speed she may be able to dictate things from the start.

HEIR KITTY is noteworthy as she goes for a third straight win. After beating some nice optional claimers at BHP Nov. 29 she rallied to beat fellow 3-year-old fillies in the Grade 1 La Brea here Dec. 26. While she goes from a Grade 1 to a Grade 3 it may still be a class hike as she goes from 3-year-olds only to facing elders. But it’s obvious she’s doing well, likes it here and the La Brea came at this same 7-furlong trip.

Another of interest is LEXINGTON PEARL. The 5-year-old mare invades from Florida where she had good results but was always facing lesser. However, she comes here for new trainer Peter Miller, off a nice second which has been flattered (the 3 to exit that race so far ALL won their next starts), she gets blinkers, has worked well and may be at her best at this trip. It’s a hefty step up in class but hey, that’s why you’ll get double-digit odds, right?

Holy Bull Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 10) by Byron King

Saturday’s Grade 2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream drew a field almost worthy of a Florida Derby, with at least six or seven legitimate Kentucky Derby prospects among its 11-horse lineup.

A narrow edge goes to CAIRO PRINCE, who won his first two starts, including the Nashua, before finishing second, beaten a nose to Honor Code in a slow-paced Remsen after idling upon making the lead and being ridden overconfidently by jockey Luis Saez. He appears well drawn in a position to stalk the leaders and power past on the outside – just the style he has prefers.

ALMOST FAMOUS dominated in a first-level allowance around two turns at Churchill in November, quickly overcoming a tardy start and leading at every call. Off that powerhouse performance he was made the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill, only to be scratched due to an abscess in a hind foot; well regarded by his connections.

Late-running FINANCIAL MOGUL comes off his best effort in four race, a runner-up finish behind CAIRO PRINCE in the Nashua – a race in which he finished in front of third-place Noble Moon, subsequent winner of the Jerome this winter in New York. ‘MOGUL has been away the longest of any horse in the field, potentially putting him at a bit of a fitness disadvantage.

Beyond the top three, others that warrant consideration, particularly for use on the bottom of the exotics, include WICKED STRONG, COUP DE GRACE, MR SPEAKER, and CONQUEST TITAN.