DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: January 18, 2014

Colonel Bradley Handicap (Fair Grounds Race 6) by Byron King

A little more than a year and a half after running 10th behind I’ll Have Another in the 2012 Kentucky Derby, DADDY NOSE BEST has developed into the top turf horse in this region. A winner of four of his last five, including the Diliberto in dominant fashion Dec. 21, he could not be in better form. Over that stretch he has rallied successfully from behind fast and slow paces – only faltering on wet ground.

Conditions have been dry in New Orleans since Monday, but the troubled Fair Grounds turf does not dry as quickly as other courses….so keep an eye on the condition of the grass.

STRING KING, in contrast, has no problem with give in the ground. He is 4 for 8 on the turf at Fair Grounds, a record that includes a win over a yielding course Nov. 23. He impressed with a near miss in the Louisiana Champions Day Classic with a nose lost to Sunbean, a quality colt, on a sloppy main track that he seemingly doesn’t like as well as the turf.

SPEAKING OF WHICH rallied to win the Tropical Turf Handicap at Calder Dec. 7, running down Tetradrachm, a horse that would go on to run a clear-cut second to heavily favored Summer Front in the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale at Gulfstream.

SPEAKING OF WHICH did not perform as well in his other races last year, though he did come to the U.S. in 2012 with a reputation as a quality horse.

At least two in this race – GRAND CONTENDER and AGENT DI NOZZO – seem to have been entered with the hope this race comes off the grass. But that seems an unlikely scenario, as Fair Grounds will not want to potentially risk losing the Grade 3 standing for this race by moving it to the main track.

Lecomte Stakes (Fair Grounds Race 9) by Kenny Peck

SMARTY'S ECHO (#5) will be overlooked a bit in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes despite coming out of consecutive efforts against Grade 1 company, including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in his latest. Why? Well, a bit of trouble in that race cost him his best chance, and though he was 2nd in the Breeders Futurity two back the figure didn't come up all that strong. But the allure comes from the figure he posted in his maiden score, a game victory going a mile at Arlington, and a string of very strong works for his first start in about 10 weeks.

Best as a closer/stalker, SMARTY'S ECHO should get a favorable race flow in the Lecomte, as there is proven two-turn speed on the rail in ROMAN UNBRIDLED (#1) as well as a couple of stretch-out sprinters in ALBANO (#6) and VICAR'S IN TROUBLE (#7). The former is has shown a bit of a rating gear and is thus dangerous, as he could work out a nice trip behind a rapid pace, but it does seem that VICAR'S IN TROUBLE will need a clear lead to win. He was most impressive in that open-length score against Louisiana-bred maidens when last seen but the water gets much, much deeper today, and that kind of running line -- and Beyer -- is sure to attract attention. He's certainly capable but his 9/2 ML price is about as low as one might want to go.

GOLD HAWK (#4) is the tepid Morning Line favorite in the Lecomte on the strength of a relatively easy score in an optional claimer in his latest, and a professional win against maidens in his career debut. He has the right running style, he's tactical enough to stay close to the pace, and he's proven at the track and distance, all of which makes him easy to like. But that's part of the issue -- he'll take his share of money, and this is easily the best field he's met yet. I'll use him but only "underneath" in exotics.

RAINBOW TRIP (#2) seems at his best on the turf. GOT SHADES (#3) has done nothing but turf thus far, so he's an unknown on the main track. He did work well for this, and his pedigree suggests he'll handle dirt just fine, but he would need to post an improved Beyer to win this, and horses' figures are generally higher on the grass. SILENT RULER (#8), still a maiden, doesn't seem fast enough, and PLUG CATCHER (#9), while not without a shot, had no real excuse when behind GOLD HAWK in their last meeting.

The key for me is SMARTY'S ECHO, and I'll key him in exactas and trifectas over two of the speeds, ALBANO and VICAR'S IN TROUBLE, with a little GOLD HAWK as well. SMARTY'S ECHO also merits a win bet if he's at his ML price of 8-1.

Strub Stakes (Santa Anita Race 8) by Michael Hammersly

HEAR THE GHOST has finished first or second in his first five starts. Is there reason to believe Saturday’s Grade 2 Strub will be any different?

No.

After all, the son of Ghostzapper has not only hinted at big-time ability but has done so routing. That includes a big win in the Grade 2 San Felipe on this track at this trip last March 9. After injury took him off the Triple Crown trail he was sidelined quite a while but came back to be a decent second in a sprint at BHP Nov. 7 before finishing an even better second (beaten just a half-length) in the Grade 3 Native Diver at BHP Dec. 14. Oh, and the winner of that race, Blueskiesnrainbows only came back to impressively win the Grade 3 San Pasqual here last Saturday, so that surely flatters this guy.

He’s back in with peers only (4yos) and is not only proven on this track but proven routing. He has the versatility to be placed wherever rider Corey Nakatani sees fit, and with a number of runners here coming out of sprints that should amount to a solid pace, which would play right into his hands. Five nice works since add to the enthusiasm.

HEAR THE GHOST looks like a must-use on top and underneath in the exotics, though it’s not as if he comes into this holding a handful of aces, that he has to finish on top.

ROOKIE SENSATION tries dirt for the first time, but being a son of Unbridled’s Song that shouldn’t be an issue. He’s shown big-time ability, storming through between horses to win the Grade 2 Twilight Derby on turf here Nov. 1, off a layoff similar to the one he faces today. Yes, he faded in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby Dec. 1 but not only was that at 1 1/4 miles, which may be pushing it for him, at least at the highest level, but he ended up on the pace. He surely seems best suited to sit back and finish and moving to dirt, with some quicker rivals lined up against him he figures to revert to that style, which may be a boon.

ZEEWAT is a real pro. He rallied from well back to be third in the Grade 1 Malibu at 7 furlongs here Dec. 26, that after winning the 7-furlogn Damascus here Nov. 2. But he’s not strictly a sprinter by any means. After all, he won the Golden Nugget at a mile at GG in November 2012 and won the Cal Derby there at this distance (his only try at this trip) last Jan. 12. And if anything he looks like a better horse now than he was then. SHAKIN IT UP won the Grade 1 Malibu here Dec. 26 with a gaudy Beyer (106). That was his first start in 9 months, too, so he’s eligible to improve. That being said, his only route resulted in his poorest finish (4th, beaten 9 1/4 lengths in the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby last March 24…though that also preceded that 9-month hiatus so maybe something went amiss that day and his finish wasn’t a function of distance).

GOVERNOR CHARLIE gamely beat maidens routing here last Feb. 17 and then looked super blasting foes in the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby by 5 lengths March 24. That was enough to earn a shot at the Grade 1 Preakness May 18 and while he ran poorly there he’s worked splendidly for his first start since for Bob Baffert, who of course is strong off the bench.