DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Indiana Derby, Indiana Oaks
I’m not getting cute in the Indiana Derby. The two favorites, ATREIDES and VICAR’S IN TROUBLE, look the most likely winners. I’m not saying I could play either horse straight, or that any semblance of value will be had, especially on Atreides, who is bursting with hype and is being asked to do several new things all at once. In fact, this is the type of horse you’re supposed to play against, but I’m not going to take a swing just to take a swing.
This is a mile-and-a-sixteenth derby, and the stretch at Indiana Downs is a short one, both characteristics that work in favor of Atreides and Vicar’s In Trouble. The latter exits a blowout win in the nine-furlong Super Derby, and he won the nine-furlong Louisiana Derby in March, his signature win of the season, but look also at his maiden win, where he set a very fast pace going six furlongs. The horse is very fast, and probably meant more to be a sprinter-miler than a nine-furlong horse. It’s just that there’s big money in nine-furlong 3-year-old stakes, and he has enough talent and gameness to win at a trip likely beyond his best.
Vicar’s in Trouble’s trainer, Mike Maker, runs a string at Indiana Grand, and the ship from his Louisville base is short. It all should work smoothly for a colt who already has banked a cool $1.1 million for his connections in 2014. Yet I’m not certain Vicar’s in Trouble will be able to handle Atreides. There are several horses in this race better than anything Atreides has beaten, but man has Atreides looked good in three easy wins at Gulfstream. Most impressive – and boding well for the stretchout to a short route – was the way he relaxed off a moderate pace going beyond a strict sprint trip for the first time last out. If he proves similarly tractable, and the thought is he will, this race should suit him extremely well.
If you think the two favorites might knock each other out on the front end, you probably don’t like C J’S AWESOME either. His fourth in the Pa. Derby was not bad at all, and he has come forward since blinkers were removed, but he’s back on short rest here, could get hung wide on the first turn, and has to date never passed a horse in a race.
Of the longer prices, JUST CALL KENNY holds the most appeal. He was somewhat rushed into the Haskell after a decent run in the Long Branch, and he wound up on the wrong part of the track, and perhaps too close to the pace, last out in the Smarty Jones. He’s quite possibly sitting on a peak performance. The race flow might appear to work well for EAST HALL, but his win in the Ohio Derby has not aged well, and I doubt his clunk-along closing style will net more than a minor award.
INDIANA OAKS
I’m against the favorites, UNBRIDLED FOREVER and MISS BESILU in the Indiana Oaks. Miss Besilu never has run an especially strong race and is shopping for any sort of graded-stakes win to enhance her high-end pedigree (she cost $2.6 million at auction). Unbridled Forever looked like a solid Kentucky Oaks candidate when she won her first start of the year, the Silverbulletday, but while she made the Oaks, and even finished a distant third to Untapable, I’d argue the Silverbulletday remains her best race at age 3. And since she has made six starts this year, that’s not a positive sign.
A freshening might do Unbridled Forever good, but I’m betting against that, and think GEORGIA and TIZWINDY might be the right ones. GEORGIA has made five starts but only two on dirt, and both produced blowout wins. Her last start, her first for trainer Marty Wolfson, came around one turn at Gulfstream, but her maiden win was a two-turn route at Santa Anita, and the stretch in distance might only be of benefit.
Tizwindy raced four times as a 2-year-old and didn’t show much, and she clearly has improved with maturity. She had a productive four-race cycle in spring and early summer, catching sloppy tracks in her last two starts in that spring, and returned from a break with a career-best performance, beating older second-level allowance horses at Churchill. If she’s able to move forward in this race, look out.
PENWITH won the same kind of race last out as Tizwindy, a second-level allowance vs. older rivals, but she is a front-running type stuck down in post 2. I’m uncertain she’s good enough to withstand a pressured trip all the way around, and as with Miss Besilu, connections are likely fishing for a spot where a filly with potentially great residual value but not elite ability can knock off a graded stakes score. Perhaps they’ve found it, but maybe not.