DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Gardenia Stakes

1. Molly Morgan 2. Ocean Bertie 3. Quiet Success

Molly Morgan is the class of a weak renewal of the Gardenia. The lone graded stakes winner in the field, she also tops the field with $390,739 in earnings.

After a second in the Grade 1 La Troienne and a win in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis at Churchill, she was a little ambitiously placed in her latest in the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap. And then, with the race developed, she essentially had no shot.

A late runner, she was forced to sit closer to the pace as victorious Bell Gallantey stole the race by setting slow fractions up front. Molly Morgan ran fifth.

Now in the Gardenia, she is drawn on the rail, a position she doesn’t find the least bit intimidating. She won with a rail-rail to take the Fleur di Lis.

Ocean Bertie is a 10-1 outsider to throw into the exotics. On the board in 10 of 13 races on dirt, she is among the most consistent entrants. And though she doesn’t rank on par with Molly Morgan classwise, she does fit pretty well with the others. Her tactical speed is another plus.

Quiet Success is very similar to Ocean Bertie in that she is a frontrunner and one that regularly runs Beyers in the mid 80s, but she has lost two straight as the odds-on favorite, making this handicapper question her will to win.

She won’t be favored in the Gardenia, but the point is that she has a recent history of letting down her backers. This handicapper is therefore inclined to restrict use of her to the bottom of the exotics.