DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: February 8, 2014

Suwannee River Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 10) by Byron King

Although Hall of Famer Bill Mott’s European transfers typically perform better once they have started a few times for him, RIPOSTE still rates on top in the Suwannee River based on – what the British would say – “cracking” good form. Her works on dirt at Payson have been encouraging leading up to her first start of 2014; at her best on firm ground. ABACO stretches out to her favorite 1 1/8-mile distance after being hung wide and finishing fourth in the Marshua’s River going a sixteenth shorter; being a deep closer wide trips are not out of the ordinary, though; appears the classiest of the U.S. runners. PARRANDA in good form, having won three of her last four, though the wins came vs. Florida-breds; might have the speed to make the front in what seems a paceless affair, giving her a tactical advantage. Of the rest only CAROLINE THOMAS seems worthy of more than a passing glance. She closed out last year with a third in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes in October, but hasn’t raced since.

Gulfstream Park Sprint (Gulfstream, Race 11) by Kenny Peck

This very deep edition of the Gulfstream Park Sprint drew a field of 11 but it is, surprisingly, not long on pure speed. That's probably the reason why SINGANOTHERSONG (#10) is getting so much love from public handicappers, as he does seem capable of shaking loose and controlling the tempo.

Given the attention he's getting, however, SINGANOTHERSONG is not likely to be 5-1, the price quoted on the Morning Line, and if he's much lower than that he may be an underlay, since he's meeting a strong field and this is not his best distance. This move from six to seven furlongs is not to be taken lightly, and it's a big reason why I feel like FORT LOUDON (#8), who was 2nd to SINGANOTHERSONG in the Mr Prospector, will move way up today.

FORT LOUDON was no threat in the Sunshine Millions Sprint last time out but a slow start cost him, leaving him with too much to do. Positioning is a big part of his game, and once he lost that he was really up against it. Today's race flow figures to work to the advantage of those horses with some early zip, and with a clean break FORT LOUDON will be involved early. His proven ability at this distance, and the expected price, make him a horse that's easy to like.

LAUGH TRACK (#1), the 5/2 favorite on the Morning Line, is the one to fear late. He's been unraced since late November, when he was off the board following some trouble in the Cigar Mile, but he runs well when a little fresher, as evidenced by the fact that he posted career best figures the last two times he returned from breaks. He comes from off the pace but, despite the closing effort in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, he has the ability to stay close early on. That will be a plus here, if the pace is controlled, and given a clean inside trip there's no reason to think he can't win this. The main concern is the expected price.

JACKSON BEND (#2) fits, as usual. He rallied into a mild pace when 2nd in the Hal's Hope last time, and he now returns to his favorite distance. Race flow is the main concern for this 7-year-old but if he gets some help up front he's always eligible to make the last run, as he has posted Beyers good enough to win this in the past.

BRUJO DE OLLEROS (#6) ran well for the show in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile despite running into trouble and against the grain of the racetrack, which was favoring speed. He is proven at this distance and he has respectable Beyers, making him a threat to run then all down late. Like JACKSON BEND, though, he'll spot position to the speeds.

CATRON (#9) is a close 2nd choice on the ML despite the fact that he spots a wealth of experience to his rivals, with only two starts under his belt. He's also never tried seven furlongs, and he hasn't faced a field of this caliber. He does have Pletcher in his corner but if he's as low as that 3-1 price that's quoted in the program he's certainly one to try to beat.

THE PLAY: Betting FORT LOUDON to win, and using him in exotics with SINGANOTHERSONG and LAUGH TRACK. -Kenny Peck

San Antonio Stakes (Santa Anita, Race 5) by Michael Hammersly

No matter how you look at this race, GAME ON DUDE dominates in every way shape and form. That won’t be lost in the least on bettors who figure to hammer him at the windows, probably taking him down the 1-2 range. There’s little to be made from a straight wager but as we discussed last week with heavy favorite Secret Circle in the Grade 2 Palos Verdes, with the right combination you may be able to turn a 2-5 favorite into a 3-1 or 4-1 exacta payoff, with the right other horse.

Again, GAME ON DUDE is a standout. He’s been routinely beating up on this caliber of runner the fast few seasons. He’s 7 for 9 over this track, the only two losses coming when in the deepest end of the pool, the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic, the past two years. He faces no one like there here and won’t face the hardship of such a tough pace scenario. He can go back to what works, either make the running or stalk an inferior foe and take over when ready.

Assuming he does the expected, the tougher handicapping puzzle is to find a potential runner-up that can buoy your exacta price. Surely BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS comes here in the best form of his life and figures a solid second choice. But there’s little to be made from using him underneath ‘DUDE in the exacta. It will be you and everybody else sharing the dimes. The only chance is to try and beat BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS for the 2nd slot. BLINGO looked like a new horse when moved back to dirt at Belmont Oct. 14. In the I’m a Banker he sat back off a fast pace (:45.80, 1:09.60) and came home strongly to win. He was freshened, returned here for the Grade 2 San Pasqual Jan. 11 and was well regarded, going off at just over 7-2. Alas, after sitting back early, as is his want, he made a mild move into the far turn but failed to sustain it. Trouble was, he was chasing fresh horses. After all, the pace that day was nothing like the I’m a Banker as the speed horses dawdled :47.80 and 1:12.20. He had no chance with those types of fractions.

That shouldn’t be the case today as GAME ON DUDE, whether he’s on the lead or pushing, will almost surely force faster splits. While ‘DUDE figures to keep on keepin’ on, those hotter splits may wreak havoc with a couple other speed types, meaning a much friendlier pace picture and race-shape for BLINGO. That type of pace may allow him to do what he does best – come running and to go past tiring speed. He opens at 6-1 and surely with ‘DUDE taking so much money and BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS a firm second choice his price should remain in that vicinity.

San Marcos Stakes (Santa Anita Race 7) by Michael Hammersly

As the old Spike Lee/Michael Jordan commercial said, “It’s gotta be the shoes.” In this case, VAGABOND SHOES. VAGABOND SHOES was entered in last Saturday’s Grade 2 Arcadia, in which he figured to be a major player. Trainer John Sadler opted to scratch for this longer spot so he feels good about this guy and this longer 1 1/4-mile trip (the Arcadia was at one mile).

And why wouldn’t he? VAGABOND SHOES blossomed in the summer. A near-miss 2nd on the Hollywood Park sod May 25 was the springboard. He was then a good 2nd in the Grade 1 Eddie Read at Del Mar. His connections took an interesting tact from there – instead of keeping him at a mile or so they opted to go longer, reasoning that they did not want to run into reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan. The move worked. VAGABOND SHOES then won the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap Aug. 24. He followed that with a good 2nd to top-class Indy Point in the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship here Sept. 29. That was enough to convince his connections to try the deepest end of the pool – the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf here Nov. 2. In that tough, tough 1 1/2-mile event VAGABOND SHOES stalked the pace, moved up to challenge on the far turn, was still in the thick it (2nd, only a head behind) at the eighth pole before finally succumbing to the world-class opposition, finishing 5th. He lost nothing in defeat, however, as he was beaten just 2 1/4 lengths with four thoroughly world-class performers in front of him.

That validated his ability and after that busy stretch he earned a break. Well, he’s been working smartly of late, looking primed and ready for this return for Sadler. Again, while his success the second half of last year came going longer and while he came here as a miler this distance in between those games may be right in his wheelhouse.

Tactically he may fall into a great trip, too. He’s got the versatility to give rider Victor Espinoza options, and that likely means here sitting a few lengths off what figures a solid pace set by SLIM SHADEY, SEGWAY and BIO PRO. He can then pounce, getting first run on the main antagonist and likely favorite JERANIMO. The presence of that rival, and some other tough foes, should keep VAGABOND SHOES’s price more than palatable, probably somewhere in the 4-1 to 5-1 range.

JERANIMO is, no doubt, the one to beat. The 8-year-old looked good as ever blasting home to win the Grade 2 San Gabriel here at 1 1/8 miles Jan. 4. As is his want he bided his time, gathered himself and powered home to win going away. Heady stuff.

That being said, he’s always struck me as most effective when using that big kick at up to 1 1/8 miles. His experience playing this longer game is limited; in fact, he’s yet to race 10 furlongs on turf. But you’ve seen many a horse who can ignite late going short does not necessarily have that same punch over longer ground. This isn’t to say JERANIMO won’t; he may well be as effective at this trip. However, he’s yet to prove it and you’re taking a short price with that question remaining to be answered. He won’t get the type of hot pace and pace collapse that he’s often received in shorter trips, which allowed his big late kick to be more effective. Also, VAGABOND SHOES has more tactical speed, meaning he’ll be like white in chess: he gets to move first. It means a headstart and first run for ‘SHOES, who IS proven at this trip. Still, JERANIMO is a must-use in the exotics.

A couple others can be employed exotics-wise with VAGABOND SHOES. LUCAYAN and TEMERAINE, one-two finishers in the Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup at 1 1/2 miles Dec. 14, are proven as classy stayers. TEMERAINE figures a better price of the two and may have a right to move forward, particularly at this trip. In that longer Hollywood Gold Cup he stalked the pace and made a smart move to grab the lead into the lane, but couldn’t fend off LUCAYAN in the final yards. He may be better suited to this slightly shorter trip. That was also h is first run in nearly two months and first action out West, so he’s now had a chance to get fully acclimated to his new surroundings.

LUCAYAN is a bit like VAGABOND SHOES. Not only is he proven at a mile (2nd in the Grade 2 American, to top-class Obviously, last May 25) but he was a sharp 2nd to ‘SHOES in the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap (at about this trip, 1 3/8 miles) and 3rd (again, just behind ‘SHOES who was 2nd) in the Grade 2 John Henry on this course at this trip Sept. 29. He shipped to Canada and failed to thrive in a Grade 1 on yielding turf Oct. 27 but returned to SoCal to win the aforementioned Hollywood Gold Cup at 12 furlongs. In other words, he handles any trip and has shown the gap between him and ‘SHOES is minimal to say the least.

Robert Lewis Stakes (Santa Anita, Race 8) by Marty McGee

Pretty much the first task in any handicapping endeavor should be to see if the favorite is beatable. In the Lewis, there’s little doubt Midnight Hawk is a deserving favorite off those two impressive races to start his career.

That said, the other six 3-year-olds in this 1 1/16-mile race are going to have a very tough time Saturday outrunning this gray ghost, who surely has Baffert thinking about a fourth Kentucky Derby. The eye-catching debut was validated by his 95 Beyer in winning the Sham; looks like onward and upward for this promising colt, and we’re not going to try to get fancy and try to beat him at something in the even-money vicinity.

That said, let’s try to extract at least a little value out of this one by keying Midnight Hawk (#3) in tri’s and supers over Cool Samurai (#5), who already has developed the patented Shirreffs kick in two tries. The plays: 3 with 5 with 1, 2, 4, 7 and 3 with 1, 2, 4, 7 with 5 … and then go on and get even a little more creative if you must. Good luck.