DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: February 22, 2014

Davona Dale Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 9) by Marty McGee

As usual, a discussion of this Grade 2 race starts with a guy named Pletcher and how tough his uncoupled favorites, Onlyforyou (#3) and Stopchargingmaria (#8), will be for the other six fillies to overcome.

The thinking here is Stopchargingmaria is the more vulnerable of the pair, given that she’s just now starting out toward the long-range Oaks goal; hasn’t raced in nearly 3 months, and is saddled with the tough outside post; would be more inclined to give Onlyforyou a bigger edge in terms of speed, recency, and post.

That said, who else can seriously challenge? The Darley filly, Penwith (#6), comes well-prepped for this by Kiaran and has been targeted for this precise spot for quite some time. Furthermore, even the Tampa invader Abou (#1) and the Jerkens filly House Rules (#5) rate long-priced chances, given further improvement apiece.

Let’s tie Onlyforyou and Penwith together in some tricks with those price plays while also acknowledging Stopchargingmaria by playing these exacta and trifecta boxes: box 1-3-6, 3-5-6, 3-6-8.

Canadian Turf (Gulfstream, Race 10) by Marty McGee

What a race this one is! A quick once-through of the 12-horse field tells you there is no clear-cut favorite and a bunch of live longshots. Getting a handle on this one and making some dough by catching a gimmick is a very demanding task, but we’ll sure give it a go.

Let’s start by being skeptical of the nominal 3-1 M/L fave, Mr. Online (#1), who clearly has come to peak form but nonetheless gets a major class test today. Quite a few are more stakes-seasoned than him, and moreover, they also may be a little more reliable at this two-turn distance at this level.

That said, let’s focus in on the colt who was all the rage at this time last year: Rydilluc (#3). Regrouped by Contessa, he’s bound to come out running, and we’re thinking this could be his first step on the way to a big year. The M/L of 6-1 probably isn’t attainable, but something in the vicinity is more than acceptable.

Let’s tie him up in exactas and tri’s by using him first and second with a handful of others, all of whom bring a little something to this Canadian table: Fredericksburg (#4), in off big back-to-back tries for Michael Matz; Salto (#6), always there or thereabouts; Bad Debt (#9), whom Rosario sees fit to ride; Guys Reward (#11), perennially underestimated; and Abtaal (#12), a real sleeper off that stateside debut for Shadwell and Kiaran.

Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 11) by Kenny Peck

On Saturday at Gulfstream Park, a deep, contentious field will contest the Grade 2, $400,000 Besilu Fountain of Youth Stakes, the centerpiece of an excellent 11-race card.

TOP BILLING (#12) is the close second choice at 7-2 on the Morning Line but accepting a short price in a race like this is not normally recommended when the horse in question is clearly facing the best field of his short career, and he'll have to overcome post 11. He has a strong late kick, and there may be enough speed to set up a closer, but while he can certainly win if he runs to his best figures, and no one else steps up big, he doesn't figure to offer enough value.

The speed figures to come from stretch-out sprinter C. ZEE (#7), the quick ALMOST FAMOUS (#8). The former has shown early zip in shorter races and goes long for the first time, making him a likely factor from the start, while the latter is apparently a one-dimensional speed who will try to steal it under any circumstances. If those two hook up, it should benefit the closers and stalkers.

Going through the field, it seems that MEDAL COUNT (#3), CASIGUAPO (#6), OUR CARAVAN (#10) and HESINFRONT (#11) lack the Beyers to win this. Further, EAST HALL (#13) was behind a couple of the top contenders in the Gulfstream Park Derby two back, with no apparent excuse, and now he has the added burden of post 13. BEST PLAN YET (#9) was well beaten in that same race.

The others -- COMMISSIONER (#1), WE MISS ARTIE (#2), WILDCAT RED (#4) and GENERAL A ROD (#5) -- are the top contenders. COMMISSIONER is the Morning Line favorite at 3-1 on the strength of his win in an optional claimer over this track at the start of the year, and he has the added benefit of the rail, no small consideration with the short run to the first turn. But the 91 figure he earned in that victory last time was with the aid of a forward trip on top of some slow fractions, and while he was flattered when TOP BILLING -- the horse he beat by a neck there -- returned to win his next start easily, that runner may have been best, as he closed nicely into those slow fractions. And he has his own hooves full here. I'll take a shot against COMMISSIONER in all pools, on the theory that he doesn't get another ideal set-up.

WILDCAT RED is the wildcard in the Fountain of Youth. If he can rate off the pace and make one run at this distance, he's going to be a handful. His Beyers are on the rise, he's very consistent, he loves to win and he's game as can be. But the only time he went as far as a mile he was head and head on the lead, and he's been close-up in his sprint tries. I like his chances if he can sit just off the expected pacesetters and make one run, but if he's too eager early he could be cooked in a duel.

GENERAL A ROD has won two of three starts, and that debut score does signify that he has more of a rating gear than WILDCAT RED, though he also has the tactical speed to stay close. He has turned in a couple of sharp works since his victory in the Gulfstream Park Derby, including that most recent breeze, and he has improved with each start in terms of Beyers. He'll likely win this if he's able to take another step forward.

My top pick, though, is WE MISS ARTIE. He may be overlooked in the wagering a bit, as it does appear that he's at his best when on the turf and on synthetic surfaces. But he has turned in exceptional works since his narrow miss in the Kittens Joy, on the turf, and his effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, when against bias and pace, was better than it may appear on paper. He could approach double digits on the board, and that cements the deal.

I'll play WE MISS ARTIE (#2) to win, and use him in an exacta box with WILDCAT RED (#4) and GENERAL A ROD (#5), and also press him on top and on bottom of exactas with both of those two runners.

Fair Grounds Handicap (Fair Grounds, Race 10) by Marcus Hersh

First off: Mister Marti Gras and Ground Transport are in this for dirt, and the race will almost certainly remain on turf, so figure those two will be scratched.

Secondly: I can’t see the turf being rated any firmer than good – and more likely yielding – after significant rainfall Thursday night.

That’s the housekeeping. As for the race itself, it’s soft, and after the scratches, there will be just seven horses left. Daddy Nose Best is in the midst of an excellent meet, and despite the fact his trainer says the horse prefers firm turf, he managed to overcome a very negative setup and win the G3 Bradley last out on a yielding course.

Listen, just handling the Fair Grounds grass course is half the battle, and I doubt the course will be much wetter Saturday than it was when DNB won last month. The horse came to hand nicely in the second part of last year, and I see no reason he doesn’t maintain his form Saturday.

That said, I have a hunch that running down Gentleman’s Kitten could prove a more formidable task than catching Adios Nardo, the horse DNB passed in the stretch to win his two races this winter. Adios Nardo, who is passing this spot, has been in excellent form, but I don’t believe he’s ever run as well as Gentleman’s Kitten ran winning a Jan. 9 allowance over the wet Fair Grounds turf. Making his first start for trainer Mike Maker, Gentleman’s Kitten just skipped across a surface over which several horses in the race appeared to flounder. He has only one pace rival, the out-of-form Skyring, in the FG Handicap, and is almost certain to get first run on DNB.

If the odds spread is anything close in reality to what the morning line says – 9-2 on Gentleman’s Kitten, 5-2 DNB – Gentleman’s Kitten is the play.

Beyond that, I suppose Unitarian has a shot. He’s only 4, and though it’s taken him a long time to progress through allowance conditions, the colt appears to be coming into this start in peak form. The allowance race he won last time was decent, but only that, and Unitarian needs another forward move to actually win this. I’m relatively skeptical.

Risen Star Stakes (Fair Grounds, Race 11) by Marcus Hersh

Here are my strongest opinions on the Risen Star, the Grade 2 $400,000 3-year-old race Saturday at Fair Grounds.

- Flat Gone, Vigorish, Interchange, Quick Indian, Extra Luck, and Son of a Preacher can’t win. That’s six of the 14 to toss right off the bat, and the only one I’d vaguely consider for 3rd or 4th is Son of a Preacher.

- I’m againt Rise Up. As I wrote in the weekly Fair Grounds handicapping report, the Delta Downs Jackpot has generally not produced either true route horses or horses that transfer their Delta success to Derby prep races at more traditional racetracks. Of the last eight Jackpot winners, only Goldencents and Rule returned to win their next start. Rise Up might have distance limitations and is totally unproven in routes on a conventional track. He’s back from a winter break and is not getting an easy lead.

- It’s been a long, long time since a horse coming off a maiden win won the Risen Star. There are two such horses this year: I’m somewhat with Hoppertunity & against Commanding Curve. Hoppertunity might well be the most talented horse in the race. While he never had to leave the rail in his Santa Anita 2nd-start maiden route win, he was explosive in the final half-furlong and galloped out literally a furlong in front of any rival. But he’s back on short rest while shipping a long distance and jumping into a 14-horse field. If he wins he’s really, really good.

Commanding Curve has flashy works and caught the eye in his maiden score last fall at Churchill, but the race he won has started looking like a stinker. Fire Starter is the only one of 11 horses coming out of it to have won a non-claiming race, and he was just buried in the Southwest Stakes.

- Vicar’s In Trouble might wind up being a sprinter-miler, but I’m not overlooking him this time. He moves into post 13 with the scratch of Bond Holder, but with a good break, the wide draw isn’t going to get him beat. He’s going to be faster than the six horses drawn inside him and will secure a decent position before the first turn. Rise Up will be there, and since noted front-end rider E.T. Baird is on Interchange, it’d be no surprise if he’s hard-sent enough to make an early impact, too. But Vicar’s In Trouble turned off enough in the Lecomte to rate behind a pace that might have been slower than what he’ll see today. He small and athletic and has a lighting turn of foot, and probably will be heard from at some point.

- I came to New Orleans ready to pick Gold Hawk to win on a rebound performance off his one-paced Lecomte finish, but wound up not being sold. For some reason (he was good, not great, in his local allowance win) and went off at a crazy 13-10 in the Lecomte. The price is going up, but I’m not sure he’ll offer value. I’m using him, but not leaning on him.

- Intense Holiday is better than the meh form emanating from the surface of his running lines. Go back and watch the replays of his races & you’ll find a horse for whom things haven’t quite gone right since his MTH maiden win. He’s not good enough to overcome negative scenarios – but today’s might finally work out.

Mineshaft Handicap (Fair Grounds, Race 12) by Kenny Peck

There's other speed in the field, and GROUND TRANSPORT (#4) does not figure to have an easy time of it in the Grade 3, $150,000 Mineshaft Handicap. Still, given the way he's working, and given the fact that he's versatile enough to lead or rate, he could prove too good for these in his current form.

GROUND TRANSPORT comes off an easy win in an optional claimer in his latest, where he led gate-to-wire after establishing the lead through mild fractions. Nothing earth-shattering on paper, to be sure, but the works in the interim were superb, strongly intimating he not only retains his form but that he could be on the verge of running an even bigger race here. He has proven in the past that he does not need the lead to win, and with GRAND CONTENDER inside him that could prove an important point, but regardless of race flow he appears to be sitting on a big step forward.

PRAYER FOR RELIEF (#7) was behind both FORDUBAI (#9) and GRAND CONTENDER in the Louisiana Handicap when last seen but he was clearly up against the race flow, which favored the aforementioned pair, both speeds. He should get a much better set-up here, and if GROUND TRANSPORT is caught up in a needless duel he'd be the one to benefit most.

BRADESTER (#8) faces the toughest test of his career but it will be interesting to see if he's up to the chllenge, especially if the pace is quick and he's close-up from the start. He has the ability to rate a bit but he's not going to come from the clouds; if the fractions are swift that's going to be a difficult situation for him; tepid splits mean he has a serious chance at posting the mild upset.

I'm betting GROUND TRANSPORT to win. He's cross-entered in the Fair Grounds Handicap, which is race 10 on this card, but that race is on the turf, and if it stays on the green he'll run in this spot for certain. I'll use him in exotics with BRADESTER and PRAYER FOR RELIEF.