DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: February 17, 2014

General George Stakes (Laurel, Race 9) by Kenny Peck

Looking for a price in this Grade 3, $250,000 General George Handicap, and one horse who fits the bill is JAVERRE (#8). He won this race last year, at just under 7-1, but he'll be a much bigger price than that today, coming off a couple of sub-par Beyers. Handicappers willing to overlook those running lines, however, will like him based on his back form.

JAVERRE's latest try came in the Native Dancer, a 1 1/16 mile event, but a slow start cost him, as he had to rush up into contention. He understandably tired and finished well off the board, but given the trouble he had at the start, and the fact that he's proven himself to be better sprinting, it's easy to forgive that effort.

The race at Parx, two back, didn't result in a big figure, but with a very slow pace it was going to be difficult, if not impossible, for him to post a representative Beyer. He was game in defeat, and it was his first start off the layoff, but the fact that he lost both of his two starts back from the layoff while posting low Beyers means many handicappers will be off his scent in the General George.

So what's to like? Well, that most recent work, at Parx last week, was exceptional, the 2nd consecutive strong breeze he put in since his last race. He has solid back figures, and he now returns to his preferred seven furlong distance. That's an important consideration, as several of his main rivals are not proven going this far, including PALACE (#6), the 8/5 Morning Line favorite. That runner is of course a strong contender, as he has some of the better figures in the field, and he has won at 7 1/2 furlongs, but that was with the aid of a perfect trip and the Beyer was a little light (for him). I'll use him, as he can win this on sheer talent, but value could be tough to come by.

TENANGO (#9) is interesting if he's at or near his Morning Line price of 7/2, though he does have a tendency to run 2nd, which dampens the enthusiasm some. He has to be strongly considered off that game win in his latest, and he has put up some strong Beyers at this distance, but he's also run 2nd in three of five starts at seven furlongs.

I'll play JAVERRE to win and place, and in exactas with PALACE and TENANGO.

Buena Vista Stakes (Santa Anita Race 7) by Marty McGee

Every race should be as good as this renewal of the one-mile Buena Vista. There are some terrific turf mares in here but no clear-cut favorite, although clearly Egg Drop and the uncoupled Proctor duo of Pontchartrain and Customer Base belong among those taking the most play.

Where to start? Well, value can usually be had in a deep spot such as this, and we’ll look toward the rail with Bejarano taking the call for Hall of Fame trainer McAnally on Miss Serendipity (#1), who was so well-prepped that she came favored in her North American debut five weeks ago, only to have a legit excuse when blocked at a critical venture. Yes, she will have to step it up Beyer-wise and otherwise, but Bejarano is riding with great confidence and skill, and the rail draw can’t hurt; let’s look for her to benefit greatly from that last out and the move to the grass and figure highly into the mix with a big late run.

The play: key 1 first and second (and third, if you must, given how nicely any of these exotics figure to pay) in tri’s and supers with a handful of the other contenders, those being Egg Drop (#2), the popular, nearly-white mare who sure isn’t camera shy; Appealing (#3), who will be a price with the ever-dangerous Blanc aboard; Moone’s My Name (#5), another price play who can do better than her last; and Stormy Lucy (#9), who has never been better. (OK, OK, sprinkle in either or both of the Proctor horses if you must.) Good luck with what really should be a Presidents Day treat.