DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: February 15, 2014

The Very One Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 8) by Marty McGee

For the 11-furlong distance, there seems to be plenty of pace in this renewal of the The Very One, especially with a few of these fillies and mares returning from layoffs of varying lengths. That may or may not mean a late-kicker will prevail, but it does mean the pace should be honest.

Preferential (#5), off her come-to-hand efforts on the Kentucky circuit, has been ready to run for quite a while now, having been prepped for the G3 La Prevoyante at Crc in late December, only to have the race canceled. The Juddmonte Farms mare has ticked right along on her work schedule, and if she runs her race from just off the pace, she’ll definitely be the one to beat here.

Let’s key her in some vertical plays (i.e., trifectas and supers) with some others who should be able to rally off a pace contested by Inimitable Romanee, Viva Rafaela, and maybe a couple of others when lining up a ticket this way: 5 in the first and second holes with 1, 2, 4, 7. Good luck.

Barbara Fritchie Stakes (Laurel, Race 9) by Kenny Peck

While many snow-weary residents of the Northest head down south, CENTRIQUE (#3) ships up from Florida for the Grade 2, $300,000 Barbara Fritchie Handicap. And she seems perfectly spotted to make it a very productive trip.

A winner of last last two starts, CENTRIQUE comes off an allowance score going a mile, but she is also proven at the seven-furlong distance of the Fritchie, which drew a field of 10 fillies and mares. Among them is Morning Line favorite LA VERDAD (#4), a high-speed New York shipper who figures to be the one to catch and beat. But there is other speed in this lineup, including VILLETTE (#2) and WINNING IMAGE (#6), and that could make LA VERDAD's task a difficult one. Also, this is her first start beyond six furlongs.

The expected race flow figures to favor CENTRIQUE, who should be ideally spotted behind those speeds from her inside post. She has never been over this particular strip but that shouldn't be a concern, as her 10 career wins have been earned over five different main tracks.

THE PLAY: Strictly a win bet on CENTRIQUE (minimum odds 5/2).

Mac Diarmida Stakes (Gulfstream Race 10) by Byron King

TWILIGHT ECLIPSE won the off-the-turf McKnight by 7 lengths after a sixth in the Breeder's Cup Turf in which he was beaten only 2 1/4 lengths. He is one of the top turf marathoners in the country when he catches a firm turf course - conditions expected Saturday. He won the Pan American here last year on rock-hard Gulfstream course in world record time for 1 ½ miles, 2:22.63. SLUMBER could must only a belated rally in the Fort Lauderdale Jan. 11, finishing fourth, beaten four lengths, but has the potential to move forward in his second race of the year; he ran well to be a close fourth in the Grade 1 Turf Classic last September when going 1 1/2 miles. Still, one gets the impression looking at his form that his best distance is 1 ¼ miles. So the three turns of this 1 3/8-mile race may result in regression. SUNTRACER never fired in the off-the-turf McKnight but is a consistent performer on the grass and should rebound with a quality effort; doesn't have a lick of early speed and seems more likely to rally for a minor award than to win. As for the others, AMEN KITTEN has a nice turf resume but is merely a two-time winner from 16 starts despite facing mostly 3-year-old opposition last year. ALPHA is the wild card, being untested on turf but a multiple grade 1 winner. He should get the clear early lead he craves, but not a supporter of first-time turf runners competing in such demanding races as this one.

El Camino Real Derby (Golden Gate Race 8) by Kenny Peck

Interesting edition of the Grade 3, $200,000 El Camino Real Derby, as the key to unraveling the race may be to solve the pace puzzle.

There's a relative dearth of early zip in this 1 1/8 mile route on the main track, and that works to the advantage of race favorite ENTERPRISING (#5). But that runner comes off a narrow loss in the California Derby and is now reunited with jockey Gary Stevens, which translates to a short price. He's plenty capable, especially with a pace advantage -- that, in fact, makes him the most likely winner -- but if the question is value, the answer may be "No".

I'll take a shot with I'LL WRAP IT UP (#7). The Beyer he posted in his maiden score three back gives him credibility, and though he was no threat in the Sham in his only main track start since, that was a tough little group there. Most importantly, that was a different pace scenario than what he encounters here, as the fractions don't figure to be as quick, and that should work to his advantage. He should be every bit of the 10-1 he's quoted at on the Morning Line, and if he gets a forward trip and mild splits he may be tough in the lane.

INFOSEC (#3) was behind ENTERPRISING in the California Derby but he didn't run badly when third there, making a mid-race run but flattening out in the lane. That was his first start around two turns and he has license to move forward here with that race under his belt, especially if he can keep it close early and the race flow develops as expected.

The horse I'm looking to beat here is TAMARANDO (#4). He'll take a good deal of money, especially with Russell Baze in the saddle, despite the fact that his lack of tactical early zip will leave him with a lot to do in the lane. He'll need to pass most of these, certainly his main competitors, and if the tempo is on the slow side he'l be spotting key position to those rivals. I'll look to keep him out of the exacta.

THE TICKETS:

$5 EXACTA 5, 7 / 3, 5, 7 ($20)

$2 EXACTA BOX 3, 5, 7 ($12)

$2 EXACTA BOX 5-7 ($4)

Total Play: $36

Santa Maria Stakes (Santa Anita Race 8) by Michael Hammersly

The absence of the likes of champion Beholder and much-ballyhooed Eblouissante actually makes this a very intriguing test. After all, you can make a case for every gal in this field. FIFTYSHADESOFHAY is no doubt the one to beat. She’s a proven commodity having knocked heads with some of the best of her peers and her last two outings, while losses, were still very good. When fourth in BHP’s Grade 2 Bayakoa Dec. 7 she blew the start and ran into perfect trip alone-on-the-lead Broken Sword but still ran on well to be a clear second. She then got squeezed back at the start of the Grade 2 La Canada here Jan. 19 but kept to her task nicely to be beaten just a length. She has ample tactical speed to be in a better position early on, and as those last two races attest, she can make up ground as well.

That being said, her overall strong form likely means she’s the favorite and there’s very little between these gals so it’s time to look for someone who may be ready to peak. That could come in the form of IOTAPA. The daughter of Grade 1 Preakness/Grade 1 Belmont winner Afleet Alex won sprinting here a year ago and was second to champion Beholder in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks last April 6 (beaten FIFTYSHADESOFHAY by a neck, no less). She ran well on BHP’s synthetic and DMR turf before going to the bench for six months. When she returned in the Grade 2 Santa Monica here Jan. 25 at 7 furlongs she broke slowly but after biding her time ran on well for second to the talented Scherzinger, beating Grade 1 winner Teddy’s Promise in the process.

That looks like the ideal tightener and while all three of her wins have come sprinting she’s shown ample route ability. Her tactical speed can have her in a good spot stalking the pace until she’s ready to pounce. And two smart works since, including a snappy 5 furlongs in :59.80 here Feb. 10 (second fastest of 47 at that distance that day) says she’s feeling spry. The depth of contention here likely means she can still go off at an attractive price, somewhere in the 7-2/4-1 range.

As noted above, FIFTYSHADESOFHAY is a proven commodity. She’s been unlucky of late but with a better start can be in a good spot from the start and dangerous all the way to the line. She’s handled herself well against the likes of Beholder and Princess of Sylmar.

There are other options exotically speaking as well. If you can get IOTAPA home in one of the top two spots you can possibly get a nice reward if you can get FIFTYSHADESOFHAY to finish out of the exacta. The likes of LET FAITH ARISE and ONDINE are prime candidates. Not only did they finish a neck apart when second and third in the Grade 2 La Canada (meaning they beat IOTAPA by just under a length) but they’re both eligible to improve. LET FAITH ARISE was making her first start on this main track and first start in 2 1/2 months. She stalked the pace and kept to her task gamely to be beaten just a neck. That was a most encouraging first local try and it was also her first route so she can certainly move forward with that under her belt. Oh, she’s worked lights-out twice since (5 furlongs in :59.80 here Feb. 1; 6 furlongs in 1:11.80 here Feb. 9).

ONDINE, third in the La Canada, was making her first start in over four months that day. Two of her three wins have come on dirt and she’s won twice at this 1 1/16-mile trip. She has the speed to be forwardly placed form the start and with that first run out of the way after the layoff she can certainly improve and be even tougher.