DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: February 1, 2014

Toboggan Stakes (Aqueduct Race 6) by Mike Beer

Hard to take too big a stand against heavily favored STRAPPING GROOM (#1, 3-5), a Grade 1 winner last year at Saratoga, who enters here off of 110 Beyer demolition of the Gravesend Handicap over this track. He faces some classy old sprinters in this spot, but will have little trouble beating them with his best race.

The horses that I want to play with him in this spot are DON TITO (#3, 8-1), who kept good company in Southern California for most of his career, and did well to overcome a slow pace despite a four-wide trip last time; and back-classer CANDYMAN E (#7, 5-1), a game winner of the Spooky Mulder stakes when last seen.

Withers Stakes (Aqueduct Race 9) by Mike Beer

Pair of NY-breds enter this Grade 3 event (with Derby points on the line) with layover figures in tow, and are clearly the two horses to beat. Of the two, I’ll prefer UNCLE SIGH (#1, 9-5), who has put up two big figures already, and showed in his debut that he can overcome some trouble and still run big. SAMRAAT (#5, 7-5), meanwhile, coasted along on an uncontested lead to put up a 95 last time; he’s done nothing wrong, and comes here 3-for-3 lifetime, but I’ll look for some confirmation of that last figure in this tougher spot.

For wagering purposes, I will try to split the two favorites in exactas with HONORABLE JUDGE (#6, 15-1). He will benefit from what should be an honest pace, and this well-connected, well-bred 3yo has flashed some potential while still appearing to be a bit green. They’ve shown confidence in him from day one, shipping to run in the Grade 3 Iroquios directly off a maiden win, and now coming to NY to look for some Derby points after he took the step forward last time.

Sam F. Davis Stakes (Tampa Race 9) by Marcus Hersh

The Sam Davis basically is a $250,000 one-other-than allowance race, as seven of the eight entrants (Asserting Bear is the exception) are one-time winners.

COUSIN STEPHEN is the 3-1 morning-line favorite, but I’d guess he, HARPOON, and NOBLE CORNERSTONE will fall into the same general odds slot, with a decent drop off to the fourth choice in the race.

Cousin Stephen appeared to be exposed as a second-tier (at best) 3-year-old in his most recent race, which is not to say, even if that’s true, that he can’t win the Sammy Davis. I would not be rushing to back Cousin Stephen. He lost some ground three wide but generally got a great trip beating just five in a slow-paced Aqueduct maiden race, and his journey hardly could have been easier in the slow-paced GP N1X allowance. The two horses that whizzed past Cousin Stephen in the final furlong, Commissioner and Top Billing, would each be a defined favorite in this race, but Cousin Stephen didn’t finish third – he faded to fifth. He’s been nine furlongs twice and stays on decently, but he lacks great early speed and has so far not showed much turn of foot.

HARPOON does not strike me as much more appealing than Cousin Stephen. It took some tinkering for Pletcher to get the colt a maiden win – no blinkers in debut, blinkers for two starts, blinkers off last time – though in his defense he broke from the rail twice and ran into Cairo Prince once. Harpoon’s somewhat overdue first victory came at a one-turn mile (he’s yet to run two turns) and with a perfect pressing/stalking outside trip. He was slow to change leads in the stretch, winning easily nonetheless, and his way of going didn’t come close to wowing me.

So, among the big 3, I’d side with the New York-bred by the modest stallion Noble Causeway, NOBLE CORNERSTONE. The Springboard Mile at Remington (2-turn mile) was faster in 2013 than in recent seasons, though we don’t really know how strong it was, as neither of the top two have yet run back. Noble Cornerstone, off a NY-bred maiden-sprint win on debut, showed more, I thought, finishing second than Harpoon and Cousin Stephen did in their wins. The pace in the race was moderate, and he made a sharp rally while wide on the turn to reach contention, and sustained his momentum past the wire. Interesting that trainer Wesley Ward sheds blinkers for this start, and one can assume the post-Remington drills have come sans hood. I wouldn’t think the price will be especially attractive, but Noble Cornerstone is plausibly playable.

Tampa can be a funky track where on-paper form has minimal meaning, but I’m not getting a great feeling from any of the longer prices. Among them, I’d pick out MATADOR as the most appealing option. He beat Asserting Bear on turf before finishing a troubled seventh in Asserting Bear’s Coronation Futurity win, a performance one could forgive Matador. The Mark Casse-trained colt has only raced on synthetic and turf, but has a dirt-leaning pedigree and a very solid-looking Palm Meadows work pattern for his 3-year-old bow.

Tampa Bay Stakes (Tampa Bay Race 10) by Kenny Peck

The Grade 3 Tampa Bay Stakes looks like it's SALTO'S (#6, 2-1) race to lose, and though I wanted to try to beat him in this spot he just looks too tough. SALTO not only has the best figures in the field but he earned that last one despite a tough trip, as he had to rally into a pace that was slow and controlled by the eventual winner, Mr. Online, who was loose on the lead. That should not be an issue today, as the presence of MELLOW FELLOW (#12), and possibly SUPER CHUNKY (#2), should ensure that no one is able to steal it.

The latter is intriguing, and may help to get us some value in this race, if he can crash the trifecta. He comes off a very good effort, albeit against lesser, as he was with the pace from the start in a race which set up well for the closers. This time, he may have the race flow in his favor, and if he can get first run at MELLOW FELLOW he would thus get the jump on the stone closers. He would probably need to run the race of his life to beat SALTO, and that may or may not be forthcoming, but under the circumstances SUPER CHUNKY is one to consider for exotics.

RIDING THE RIVER (#4) has put up figures good enough to win this race in the past. His latest two were sub-par but the most recent race he was in featured a slow pace, and the race two back was a sprint. His route Beyers are consistent, and if he can run his best race in his first start off the layoff he fits here, and he should be a square price.

SALTO is too short to take on the win end so I'll try to get lucky with SUPER CHUNKY, who should offer double-digit odds. I'll make a small box with those two and press much harder with SALTO on top, and I'll do something very similar with SALTO and RIDING THE RIVER.

Hutcheson Stakes (Gulfstream Race 10) by Byron King

C. ZEE is an overlay at his 5-1 morning line, coming off a runner-up finish in the Spectacular Bid and having a stalking style that sets him up for a favorable trip. He has continually improved with each raceand now looks ready for a peak performance in the third start of the meet. He does not have the flashiest pedigree or connections of, but his performances on the track have been excellent. WILDCAT RED, the Gulfstream Park Derby runner-up, was scheduled to go in the Fountain of Youth but had to miss the race due to a short bout of sickness. Trainer Jose Garoffalo said he is pleased with how the colt has done since the setback, but sometimes horses will regress after sickness and getting treated with antibiotics; would have been the top selection were it not for the sickness news. TRAIL BLAZE ran like a budding star in his debut and then broke poorly and was dusted when fourth, beaten 10 lengths, in the Spectacular Bid. Trainer Todd Pletcher keeps the faith by running him in a stake when he could have opted for more conservative placement in an allowance. Others worthy of attention for use on the bottom of the exotics include speedy maiden graduate GAMBLER’S GHOST and PABLO DEL MONTE, who is cut back to a sprint after an even fourth in the one-mile Gulfstream Park Derby.

Arcadia Stakes (Santa Anita Race 9) by Michael Hammersly

WINNING PRIZE came from Argentina with a gaudy reputation (multiple Grade 1 winner) and quickly showed what the fuss was all about. He blasted some real nice foes in a turf mile event at Del Mar Aug. 22, his U.S. debut. They thought enough of him to ship to Kentucky for a most daunting task – take on HOY Wise Dan in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland Oct. 5. Well, Mother Nature had other plans as a torrential downpour took that race off the turf onto the synthetic track, a surface ‘PRIZE had never seen. He was no threat when 4th but all things considered that wasn’t a bad run at all.

He returned West, set the pace and finished a game 3rd (beaten less than a length) in the Grade 2 Citation Handicap at Hollywood Park Nov. 29. His speed should have him prominent from the start, though he likely isn’t as quick as REGALLY READY or UNBRIDLED’S NOTE. Actually, that may be a good thing as it will likely force him to stalk. He has the speed to keep those 2 speedsters in his sights and can still finish, and whereas two might not be considered as proven as ‘PRIZE at this trip so furlong No. 8 could play well for him. SUGGESTIVE BOY is the defending champ and like WINNING PRIZE he’d come from South America all the rage and showed why. Alas, after his big win in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile here last March he had a splint injury. He hasn’t been seen since. Trainer Ron McAnally originally mentioned the Breeders’ Cup Mile here Nov. 2 as a goal but obviously you can see ‘BOY didn’t make that, and in fact it’s another three months after that before he resurfaces here. If he’s ready to come back at full strength he can surely be scary again…but that’s no small ‘if’, is it?

REGALLY READY was at one time maybe the best turf sprinter in the land. Alas, things fell off for him playing that game the past couple seasons but you can teach an old gelding new tricks. They moved him to a mile at Keeneland Oct. 18 and he won. He was then fourth on non-firm turf going a mile at Churchill Downs Nov. 9 but was freshened, came here and led all the way to be an impressive winner at this trip, earning a 100 Beyer. He may be the quickest here and if he’s able to dispatch with the other speed could be in the thick of this every step of the way.

Another interesting possibility is a bounce-back for NO JET LAG. Just three or four months ago he looked like he might be among the premier milers on this circuit as he came from England, won a smart race at Del Mar, and then won the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile here Oct. 5. That earned him a shot at Wise Dan and company in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile. Alas, after prompting a very fast pace (probably not his preferred style) he gave way. He came back in the Grade 2 Sir Beaufort here and again was on top of a brisk pace – and again paid the price.

He’s mired on the far outside here, which is no bargain, but his first 2 big U.S. starts came with an off-the-pace style so maybe rider Corey Nakatani will cut in behind, save ground and save some fuel for a last burst. The pace should be strong which should serve him well. And those last 2 dull outings help your price.