DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Eclipse Stakes

FRAC DADDY won both times he ran on Polytrack at Keeneland so he should be comfortable running over the Poly at Woodbine for the first time. He earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure for his win over STEALCASE in the Grade 3 Ben Ali at Keeneland two back and the horse that finished third won a Grade 3 at Arlington in his next start. Frac Daddy attended the pace before tiring to finish fourth in the Grade 1 Man Of War in his latest start and should appreciate the easier company, the shorter distance, and being back on a synthetic surface. If he comes close to repeating his impressive performance in the Ben Ali he’s going to be the winner. His five-furlong move at Belmont in :58.20 seconds May 26 is a strong signal he’s ready for another big outing.

ALPHA BETTOR won this race last year and two other graded stakes at Woodbine. He tuned up for this with a front-running win over Stealcase where he was allowed to set very slow fractions. He probably won’t be allowed the same luxury here but he’s versatile and can stalk speed that might be a bit suspect. That would be REALLY SHARP who upset the Grade 3 Vigil going seven furlongs and figures to be the one they have to catch. He has only tried a middle distance three times and he did hold on to finish second in the Grade 3 Bourbon on turf last year but was disqualified for causing interference in the stretch. Still, it wasn’t a bad performance and he also finished third behind Fountain of Youth runner-up Violence in the one mile Grade 2 Nashua. Not sure if he can take them all the way but he might be able to stick around long enough to spice up the exotics.

STEALCASE was no match for Frac Daddy in the Ben Ali but he could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of his current form cycle after just missing to Alpha Bettor in his latest.

HIS RACE TO WIN looked good winning a conditional allowance race on the turf at Keeneland and he won the Grade 3 Ontario Derby on Polytrack here last year so he won’t mind the surface switch. He seems to be a cut below the main players but he just might be an improving 4-year-old.

Frac Daddy is clearly the one to beat off of his win in the Ben Ali and if he is anywhere near his morning-line price of 7-2 he’s an overly so the main play will be to bet him to win. We’ll also key him in the exotics to Alpha Bettor and Stealcase. We’ll use Really Sharp and His Race to Win as the main ingredients on the bottom half of the exotics.

NOTE: Anyone that has only seen the first set of past performances issued should be aware that Alpha Bettor is not taking the blinkers off.