DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Delaware Park, July 5

Delaware Oaks by Kenny Peck

If the field stays intact, I'm looking for a closer in Saturday's Grade 2, $300,000 Delaware Oaks. More specifically, as long as HONEY'S RYAN (#3) and IMAGE OF ANNA (#6) face the starter, the race does figures to set up for one of the others.

Some, of course, are more appealing than others. This will mark the first dirt route for AIBHILIN (#5), who could regress of a career-best figure in her latest. VERO AMORE (#7) can rate a bit but she's at her best when close up, and she could be hurt by a quick tempo.

Perhaps PIXIE DUST (#1) is good enough, but she will need to prove she can come from off the pace. She has strong Beyers but she's never been two turns, and she gets the rail, so it's more likely she prompts the pace than benefits from it. Still, she has to be considered a threat. So too does LADY PARADIME (#2), who could fall into a perfect stalking trip from her inside post. She was overmatched in the Acorn but this is more her speed, and the Beyers she posted two and three back gives her strong credibility. JOINT RETURN (#4) is another who fits well in terms of figures. She loves to win, and if she gets the right pace set-up she has to be considered a big stretch threat.

All that said, I settled on FORTUNE PEARL (#8). She was behind VERO AMORE in the Black Eyed Susan but that was a different race flow than what she'll see her, and it could be MUCH different. She has yet to run a race on dirt where she hasn't closed effectively, and if there is an early duel she'd be one of the main beneficiaries. I'll use her over PIXIE DUST, LADY PARADIME and JOINT RETURN in exactas and trifectas.

Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes by Randy Goulding

With 13 horses entered there should be some value offered and it will be hard to stay away from AIGUE MARINE if she goes off anywhere near her morning-line odds of 6-1. She has been away for just over two months but she can fire fresh and the past five years Clement has a 19 percent strike rate with horses coming back from a layoff between 61-180 days. Just 9 percent in graded races in the same category is a bit of a concern. Nonetheless, she hasn’t finished worse than third in five starts at the distance, and while she hasn’t won a graded race yet, she just missed going 1 1/2 miles in the Grade 3 Bewitch at Keeneland in her latest. She has the best Beyer Speed Figure at the distance, which she has posted twice, and a similar figure would likely get it done here. She won’t mind what could be a soft course, and with her tactical speed she should get a nice trip sitting off speed that isn’t likely going to last.

CONCISE looks like the best of the three horses entered by trainer Graham Motion. This seems like a big step up in class after winning a first-level allowance race at Keeneland, but she didn’t get beat by much when she finished third in the Grade 1 Garden City last year. She could also be ready for a peak performance in the third start of her current form cycle. She’s worth a look at what should be a decent price and TOPIC has been installed as the 7-2 morning-line favorite, but she hasn’t won in four starts as a 4-year-old, and her best races were on much firmer courses in Southern California. She is coming off a couple of solid efforts at Churchill Downs, though, and she ran huge races both times she went this distance. Not our favorite to win this but she should be included in the exotics.

MODERNSTONE seems like an underlay at 9-2 but she could be coming up to a peak performance in her third start in North America. She was no match for Grade 1 winner Riposte in the Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay, and she didn’t have the best trip when she finished fourth as the favorite behind Grade 2 winner Caroline Thomas in an $80K optional race in her latest at Belmont.

STARSTRUCK looks capable if you toss her latest. She is another one that seems to favor firm footing, though.