DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Del Mar Oaks

I fully realize I run the risk of repeating myself here. I was all-in on MY CONQUESTADORY when she shipped West for the Grade 2 San Clemente here July 19, only to again see her hung out to dry with a wide trip and left with too much to do, though she gamely ran on for third behind front-running winner ISTANFORD. She must deal with that foe again, as well as some other tough gals but there are a few things that may lead this to fall her way, so we’ll stick with her again.

One aspect that may help her is pace. ISTANFORD is mighty quick and ran her foes into the ground in the San Clemente. She surely figures to try such tactics again since they’ve worked so well for her. But this time the bull’s-eye is squarely on HER back. The other riders know they can’t just let her loose out there. The feeling before the San Clemente was that while ISTANFORD is fast and good that they could still reel her in. They were misinformed.

They don’t figure to let her go today, and there’s another sixteenth of a mile for ISTANFORD to negotiate as well.

The other aspect on the asset side of MY CONQUESTADORY’s ledger is she finally gets a decent draw. She showed big ability last year, winning the Grade 1 Alcibiades on Keeneland’s Polytrack, then finishing a good fourth (from a dreadful post no. 14) in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. After a lengthy vacation (over five months she was a strong second (beaten a nose) in the Grade 3 Selene on Woodbine’s Polytrack May 18. That was a superb return run but she somehow ended up dueling on the lead. That isn’t how she wants to run. Two months later she came here for the San Clemente, had a dreadful draw (post 12) and after biding her time came with a smart wide run. But winner ISTANFORD was already long gone.

Today’s draw (post 6) is a different kettle of fish. Also, there’s no layoff this time and she does have enough speed to keep ISTANFORD in her sights from the get-go. A strong 5-furlong work here Aug. 3 (:59.40, fourth fastest of 101 5-furlong works that day) say she’s sitting on ‘go’.

The fact she got beat in the San Clemente, and that the gal who beat her (ISTANFORD) is lined up against her, as is scary East Coast shipper SEA QUEEN means the price figures much healthier this time around, possibly in the 7-2/4-1 range. We’ll take it.

She’ll be our key on top and there is no dearth of candidates qualified to fill in the supporting role in the exacta/tri.

SEA QUEEN looks awfully scary as she invades from the East Coast. The daughter of Lemon Drop Kid won a stakes on the Belmont turf at this trip May 25. She then tried the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks July 5 and after setting the pace stayed on well for second to the highly promising Minorette. It’s most encouraging trainer Christophe Clemente opted to ship her all the way across the country when he could easily have stayed at Saratoga and run Saturday’s Grade 2 Lake Placid. Not only is shipping a big issue but he knew who he’d be running against. And still he came. He’s also shown numerous times that when he ships here he’s not here for the camaraderie, that he means business.

ISTANFORD’s assets have already been touched upon. She not only has speed but it’s QUALITY speed. After all, she led all the way to beat boys in the Grade 3 Arlington Classic on the Arlington turf May 24. She sizzled and fizzled in the Grade 3 Regret on Churchill grass June 14 but bounced right back with her superb gate-to-wire win in the San Clemente. She’s the real deal and will take some catching.

DIVERSY HARBOR has likely been SoCal’s second best 3-year-old turf filly (behind now-sidelined Nashoba’s Gold). She’s Grade 1 placed (second to top-class Room Service in the American Oaks at Santa Anita May 31) and then after a sluggish start ran on well to be fourth in the San Clemente. She doesn’t have to come from that far out of it so she’s a good fit.

PERSONAL DIARY ran on strongly to be a sharp third (moved up to second via disqualification) in Churchill’s Grade 3 Regret June 14. She came here July 27 and in a race moved off the turf validated that run, finishing a strong second (beaten just a head) July 27. If anything she figures better on this ground. TEPIN bided her time early in the San Clemente and ran on well to be second, showing she’s got the necessary quality to be a player at this level and that she handles this course.