DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Del Mar, August 24
He may not be the horse he once was but GAME ON DUDE is training as if he still has some bullets left in his holster.
While he was something of a question mark on synthetic prior his win in this race last year was one of the best efforts of his career. Again, his form since hasn’t been what it was prior as age is taking its toll but the way he’s been working of late for Bob Baffert hints he has one last big hurrah left in him. Tactically he’s always been a free-running horse. Often that has meant he ends up on the lead but it’s not so much that he needs the lead, more that he gets into his wonderful gallop and stays clear. There may be a couple quicker in here but so long as rider Martin Garcia can get him into that smooth, free gallop you know the track suits, you know the distance suits and you know he likes it here.
And best of all, for those who still believe, you’re going to get a much better price than usual. After all, he probably won’t even go favored what with unbeaten hotshot 3-year-old SHARED BELIEF lined up against him.
As far as that foe goes he’s obviously wonderfully gifted, as he’s not only unbeaten in five starts he’s untested, with winning margins between 4 1/4 and 7 3/4 lengths. But there are some significant hurdles here. It’s his first time on this track, though that doesn’t figure a hardship (after all, he’s been stellar on Golden Gate Tapeta, Betfair at Hollywood Cushion and Los Alamitos dirt). What are issues are distance and the level of competition. He won going 1 1/8 miles superbly at Los Alamitos last time, yes, but it’s another furlong today of uncharted waters, and he must negotiate that against by far the best competition he’s faced. Speaking of which, who is the best horse he’s defeated? Yes, he’s been winning easily and has already beaten elders, though that was just an allowance sprint at his home base of Golden Gate; that’s nothing compared to facing these guys away from home going 10 furlongs. And what’s more because of his sterling record, he’s going to get bet, so you’re embracing all the hurdles and doing so at a short price.
He may be absolutely be good enough, yes, but you can see there are some concerns.
Some may say rider Mike Smith has already done the handicapping for you as he opted to ride this guy instead of GAME ON DUDE. That may only partially be true. Surely Smith must like his chances here but his choice is also an investment in the future. GAME ON DUDE’s career is winding down; SHARED BELIEF is a gelding so not only does he have this year on his docket but probably 4-year-old and 5-year-old seasons, maybe more, to come.
There are a couple options if you want to try to defeat the two favorites. MAJESTIC HARBOR looked super blasting many of these in the Grade 2 Californian. A repeat of that performance level can surely make him a factor and with so many flocking to the top two he figures to remain a generous price.
IMPERATIVE could be your bomb. He looked on his way this spring, topped by a smashing win in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic when easily beating GAME ON DUDE. He hasn’t been as sharp since but the fact his connections opt to keep him on this path, to stay at this level, speaks of optimism, and with his last couple outings not being so hot his odds figure to balloon to somewhere around the 20-1 vicinity.
FRAC DADDY didn’t fire when he came here for the San Diego Handicap but his trainer Ken McPeek said he felt the horse wasn’t here long enough to get acclimated and settled. He said that’s no issue this time as the horse has remained here and is now used to these surroundings. Some of his prior Polytrack form at Keeneland and Woodbine is exemplary so he can certainly be scary if able to get back to that form – and that San Diego run coupled with the presence of some big shots means he’s almost sure to be ignored in the wagering.
Del Mar Mile by Mary Rampellini
OBVIOUSLY has owned the Grade 2, $250,000 Del Mar Mile Handicap, winning the turf staple for the first time at 4 then defending his title last year at 5. From all angles, he looks like a short-priced favorite to make it three in a row Sunday, as part of an eight-horse field that includes fellow Grade 1 winner TOM’S TRIBUTE.
OBVIOUSLY will break from the rail and appears to be the controlling speed of the Del Mar Mile. He also is 3-for-3 over the local course, owns the field’s best collection of recent Beyer Speed Figures and worked a bullet five-eighths in 58.60 seconds in his final prep. The move was the fastest of 90 at the distance on Del Mar’s main track Aug. 17. As for concerns, it’s worth noting OBVIOUSLY will be picking up five pounds off his last race and spotting chief rival TOM’S TRIBUTE four. As for race shape, there’s an outside chance ALPHA BULLET could put some pressure on OBVIOUSLY depending on how the break goes. He’s drawn to the outside of the favorite, whose last two wins have come after starting from the rail. Still, the horse to beat remains the superior miler OBVIOUSLY.
TOM’S TRIBUTE made a nice closing run at OBVIOUSLY in the Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita, rallying from some 13 lengths back to finish third, beaten two lengths after a less than ideal trip. TOM’S TRIBUTE then flattered the winner one start later, when he captured the Grade 1 Eddie Read at Del Mar. TOM’S TRIBUTE will be shortening up a little in distance and he’s been sharpened for the task with a three-eighths blowout in 35.60 seconds Aug. 19. He could get a nice stalking trip behind OBVIOUSLY, and perhaps ALPHA BULLET, and as a Grade 1 winner with a series of triple digit Beyer Speed Figures in his arsenal, he appears to be the chief threat to OBVIOUSLY.
HANDSOME MIKE makes the move back to turf for the first time since the spring and note he is a winner on the green, for a mare who won on the surface. He’s also proven class as a Grade 2 winner pushing $1 million in earnings. HANDSOME MIKE has tactical speed and like TOM’S TRIBUTE might sit a nice trip behind OBVIOUSLY and perhaps ALPHA BULLET. HANDSOME MIKE is an interesting prospect off a start against Fed Biz, who is to run later on the card in the Pat O’Brien.
TIGAH is a Grade 3 winner on the grass who was fifth to OBVIOUSLY in this race a year ago. He comes with a closing run and if the pace is accommodating he seems like a candidate to pick up some pieces through the lane. He’s also a winner over the course at Del Mar.
ALPHA BULLET can be closer to the pace than he found himself last out, when he did not get the break in an overnight race over the main track at Del Mar. As a rule, he’s been a good gate horse and as mentioned earlier, there’s an outside chance he could put some pressure on OBVIOUSLY.
ROCK ME BABY was meant for turf last out, but his race was moved to the main track. He was a clear winner of the statebred stakes, a year after missing by a head in the same race when it was run on turf at Del Mar. High points of his form include splitting the field in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last November.
LIL BIT O’FUN is on top of his game right now, having won his last three starts. His most recent score came at 20-1, in a restricted stakes at this one-mile turf trip at Del Mar. LIL BIT O’FUN won in a quick 1:32.20, closing from next to last. On a pedigree point, his dam, Dash of Humor, was a stakes winner of more than $300,000. LIL BIT O’FUN’s confidence must be soaring, and like TIGAH he could make some noise through the lane.
HE BE FIRE N ICE will give up recency to all of these as he has not seen action since the Breeders’ Cup Mile last November. He was eighth to reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan in what has become a highly productive race. It’s been the catalyst for five next-out winners, with four of them accounting for graded stakes scores and Beyer Speed Figures ranging from 107 to 101. A comebacker, HE BE FIRE N ICE is one to preview in the paddock.
Picks: OBVIOUSLY, TOM’S TRIBUTE and HANDSOME MIKE.