DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: December 28, 2013

G2 W.L. McKnight at Calder (race 7, post 3:30 ET) by Marty McGee

Let there be no doubt that Twilight Eclipse (#9) and Slumber (#11) are highly capable professionals and definitely the ones to beat in this popular end-of-year fixture, but it’s equally clear that neither will offer much wagering value in this turf marathon.

That said, let’s tie them both up in our vertical plays but while keying on Vertiformer (#8), whose trainer, Christophe Clement, specializes in just this type of category: layoff runners going long on the grass. The hiatus of nearly a year is sure to make this guy keener than normal, so in a race that seems to lack much pace, let’s look for him to be prominent from the start and make a lasting impression, hopefully at a decent price.

The play: key #8 in first and second in trifectas and supers with the two logical favorites and also by throwing in a couple of fringe players, Suntracer and Macho Mas Macho. Like this: 8 with 9, 11 with 6, 7, 9, 11; and all desired variations thereof.

G3 Mr. Prospector at Gulfstream (race 9, post 4:33 ET) by Marty McGee

A pair of sprinters with a spate of recent triple-digit Beyers, Star Harbour (#3) and Black Diamond Cat (#8), both would be tough with more big figs, but let’s look for the resurgent Apriority (#7) to repeat his eye-popping allowance victory over the Gulf main track and confirm his back-class once more.

David Fawkes has done yeoman’s work in getting Apriority back on form, and we’ll look for Bravo to work out the right kind of trip for the 6yo after Black Diamond Cat clears off from the outside post. Meanwhile, Travelin Man (#5), the beaten favorite in the same Nov. 24 race won by Apriority, surely needed that race, and he’ll loom a danger for the Pletcher/Castellano team in moving up for a major share here.

The play: key #7 in first and second in trifectas and supers while pressing with #5 to be an essential part of the under, i.e., 7 with 5 with 1, 3, 6, 8; and 1, 3, 6, 8 with 7 with 5; and all desired variations thereof.

G3 Mr. Prospector at Santa Anita (race 8, post 7:00 ET) by Marcus Hersh

Can’t see getting too creative in the Daytona: The favorites are UNBRIDLED’S NOTE and CHIPS ALL IN, and I like them in that order.

What I don’t see is the betting forecast by the morning line, with Unbridled’s Note at 2-1, Chips All In at 5-2, and GALLANT SON at 7-2. I’d think there will be more of a spread between Chips All In and the third choice, and I’m not even sure Gallant Son, whose big last race going a standard three-quarters on synthetic, doesn’t have a great deal of correspondence with this six and one-half “down the hill.”

As for Unbridled’s Note, he is a proven commodity over the unique Santa Anita turf-sprint course, and he remains relatively fresh just three races into a form cycle that commenced in late September and surely, when a plan was hatched, included this spot. There was little pace in the Hollywood Turf Express on Dec. 8, and Unbridled’s Note surprisingly got himself embroiled in it, fading a touch late to dead heat for second. He’ll be outrun for the early lead this time & has a good draw from which to track the pace-setters and run them down.

Chips All In was part of the triple dead heat for second at BHP with Unbridled’s Note, but he has been racing fairly steadily for two months longer than Unbridled’s Note, is more susceptible to getting sucked into a fairly hot pace, and probably is a half-notch below the UN all things being equal. Consider trying to run him out of the exacta if you eschew the chalk.

I’d be a little intrigued by EL COMMODORE turning back from pace-setting route efforts, but he drew the rail & is in line for a very tough trip.

Gallant Son is about to turn 8 and is unlikely to improve upon his best turf-sprint form, which isn’t quite good enough to win. Slightly more interesting is AIN’T NO OTHER, who could sneak into a high placing with a perfect stalking trip from a good outside draw.