DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Cougar II Stakes

It was about this time last year SOI PHET came into his own. The son of Tizbud was claimed for a mere $16K by Leonard Powell off a 5th-place finish at BHP May 23, 2013. He then won a starter allowance route there by 9 1/2 lengths June 30, 2013, easily won a Cal-bred optional claimer by 6 1/2 lengths over this track July 20, 2013, then gamely beat N1X foes here last Aug. 10 and won a tough $62,500/N2X optional claimer here last Sept. 1 for a fourth straight win. It was all enough to earn a shot at the Grade 1 Awesome Again at SA last Sept. 28.

Sure, he could only manage third that day, beaten 6 1/2 lengths, but he was chasing Mucho Macho Man (who would next win the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic, and Paynter (a Grade 1 winner in his own right). You wouldn’t blame Powell in the least for looking in the mirror and smiling over such a wonderful claim. However, things turned south. He was 4th in the Big Bear there Oct. 31 and a so-so 5th in the Grade 3 Native Diver at BHP Dec. 14. He got a well-earned and seemingly needed break but you had to be worried when he came back to be 5th in the Tiznow April 26 and a non-factor 6th in the Grade 1 Charles Whittingham on turf there May 24. You had to wonder if the 6yo gelding had fired his bullets.

The answer, fortunately, is apparently he hasn’t. He next gamely won a starter allowance turf race there June 8. That hardly signaled he was back and ready for stakes ranks, but his July 3 run at LRC did just that – he stalked the pace in the Bertrando there, took over into the lane and drew off to win with ease by 3 3/4 lengths. Apparently rumors of his demise were premature.

So he comes into this 1 1/2-mile event looking about as good as he did a year ago. He’s never run this far, yes, but there’s no reason with his pedigree (on both sides) that he shouldn’t handle this trip. And as far as footing goes, well, you already know that’s no problem – he’s 3-for-3 on this main track.

While he has ample tactical speed he’s by no means a need-the-lead type. That could be key here. After all, the likes of ICE CREAM TRUCK and likely favorite SKY KINGDOM have ample speed, so he can break, allow those guys to go and sit just off them. They’re not sizzlers so in no way should they get away from him.

He can bide his time and move whenever rider Kent Desormeaux sees fit, bit it early or later. Regardless, he’s back in top form and looks primed for another big run, and with SKY KINGDOM likely going favored this guy’s odds figure quite palatable (in the 4-1 range).

*(Note – SOI PHET is also entered in Saturday’s Grade 2 San Diego Handicap so they may opt to try that spot instead.)

Speaking of SKY KINGDOM he merits much respect. Not only does he have tactical speed but he comes here sharp – he looked good gamely winning a stakes at LRC July 4. Oh, and if you’re worried about his staying power, no need – he ran 2nd in this race last year and in March 2013 easily won the Grade 3 Tokyo City at SA, his only other 12-furlong attempt.

BIG JOHN B may be a new horse for trainer Phil D’Amato. He was claimed for $50K off a dullish 5th on KEE’s main track (well beaten by 11 1/2 lengths). He came back for $40K on turf at CD and rallied strongly to finish 2nd (awarded the win via a DQ). He shipped West to SA for a June 29 1 1/4-mile turf race and rallied strongly to win there as well so he comes here in peak form. The way he runs this trip is no issue