DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Clement Hirsch

With no Beholder around to dominate the distaff scene out West you’ve seen these gals take turns, and success has been situational, be it an issue of pace or footing. It’s the latter that sways us here as BROKEN SWORD’s excellent synthetic track form may give her the edge in a competitive field. And considering how closely talented these gals are it’s something like a love of a particular footing or an advantageous pace scenario that can make the difference.

BROKEN SWORD has been terrific on synthetic footing. Actually, she’s handled that, dirt AND turf but she seems most comfortable on synthetic ground. She romped by 5 1/2 lengths on GG’s Tapeta Track Nov. 10, shipped south and won BHP’s Grade 2 Bayakoa in a laugher on the Cushion Track Dec. 7 (by 4 1/4 lengths). That earned her a shot at the Grade 2 La Canada on SA dirt Jan. 19 but after setting a hot pace under pressure she gave way, fading to 5th beaten 7 3/4 lengths.

She hasn’t been seen since but the SoCal scene is now dirt-dominated so trainer Jerry Hollendorfer gave her all sorts of time as he pointed for a return to synthetic in a race like this. While she’s never run on Polytrack, the surface in question today, the fact she’s handled PLN dirt, GG Tapeta, BHP turf, DMR turf and BHP Cushion Track means she’ll likely handled this place, and that feeling has been buoyed by her works. She posted 4 bullet works in 5 drills at GG this spring/summer, then shipped here for her final a.m. move for this race, a 4-furlong blowout July 28, and promptly rattled off another bullet, smoking home in :46.20, the best of 60 4-furlong works that day. Heady stuff.

Note, too, she’s shown she can run well fresh. And while she has tactical speed to be in the hunt from the start, she’s by no means a need-the-lead type. That could be critical here as she has the speed to keep IOTAPA from cruising to an easy lead early (you saw what that could turn into when IOTAPA led all the way to win the Grade 1 Vanity on SA dirt June 14 by some 10 1/4 lengths). That speed means that if no one else presses IOTAPA then rider Rafael Bejarano has the speed at his disposal to move early and keep IOTAPA honest. And, if say DOINGHARDTIMEAGAIN presses or even outruns IOTAPA early then BROKEN SWORD can tuck just in behind, and pounce at Bejarano’s request.

The competitive nature of this field, and the fact BROKEN SWORD hasn’t run in 6 1/2 months figures to keep her price more than palatable, probably in the 4-1 range. That holds ample appeal.

The most interesting entrant is PARRANDA. The 5-year-old mare has never run on synthetic footing but comes here razor sharp off a string of big turf efforts. She’s won 4 of her last 6 including taking GP’s Grade 3 Suwanee River this winter before coming west to take the Grade 3 Wilshire at SA April 27 and Grade 2 Royal Heroine on turf there June 28. While it’s first time on this footing she’s been working along smartly on this ground (5fs in 1:01.60 July 14; 6fs in 1:12.80 July 20; 6fs in 1:13.40 July 26). We don’t have to tell you again that you’ve seen many a grass horse move to this main track and flourish. With her talent and class if she takes to the footing she can be awfully scary under Elvis Trujillo, who has been an impressive to the riding colony since coming from Florida.

IOTAPA is capable of huge efforts when things go her way, which usually means she controls the pace. When she did so in the Grade 2 Santa Maria at SA Feb. 14 she led all the way to win nicely; when she did so in the Grade 1 Vanity there June 14, her last start, she freaked, drawing off to win by 10 1/4 lengths. Don’t assume she’s merely an SA specialist, either. After all, she’s won 2 of her 3 synthetic track tries (all at BHP).

Her trouble here may be that making the early lead and dictating tempo won’t be easy at all as there are at least a couple in here who can make her life miserable early. In fact, DOINGHARDTIMEAGAIN may actually be quicker. The good news is IOTAPA has won from off the pace before so she’s a pro due ample respect even if you don’t believe she will be the controlling speed.

MORE CHOCOLATE hasn’t won since taking the Grade 2 La Canada on SA dirt in January 2013 but she was a good 2nd in this race last year, her only try over this track, so she fits. She hasn’t run since last Nov. 3 when 7th in a Grade 2 grass race at SA but it speaks of confidence that trainer John Sadler opted to try a spot like this for her in her first start in nearly nine months.

FIFTYSHADESOFHAY showed with her smart Grade 2 Ruffian win at BEL May 11 she’s far from done after a couple troubled trips at SA. She’s been freshened since finishing a well-beaten 3rd in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis on CD dirt June 14 but has worked well here (bullet 6fs in 1:12 July 22) and has won before on synthetic.