DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Canadian Derby

It is tough to take a firm stand on any of the 11 3-year-olds stretching out to 11-furlongs for the first time. OFF THE TOP is certainly bred to handle the distance, particularly on his sire’s side. He is by Rosberg who won the Grade 3 Premiers going 11-furlongs. Rosberg is by the great A.P. Indy and is out of the mare Bosra Sham, a European Champion that won the Grade 1 Champion Stakes going a mile and a quarter on turf. The dam of Off the Top won the Grade 3 Ballerina going a mile and an eighth as a 3-year-old, and she has been an excellent producer.

Off the Top is coming off back-to-back seconds at Hastings behind the best 3-year-old in Western Canada, Koffee Grinder, and owns the best Beyer Speed Figure on dirt in the field. It is hard to say how he will handle shipping over the Rocky Mountains and coming back in just 12 days, though.

THE SPINMEISTER took a big step forward when trainer Rob Chabot took the blinkers off for the Count Lathum. He settled nicely and finished full of run while blowing away his opponents. He certainly ran like a horse that wouldn’t have any problem getting 11 furlongs.

EDISON is the only horse that has gone longer than 1 1/16 miles he won going 9-furlongs on turf at Gulfstream for trainer Todd Pletcher in June. He was sold privately after he finished third in a first-level allowance race in May, and he’s won both of his starts for trainer Robertino Diodoro including his first try on dirt in the Harry Jeffrey Stakes at Assiniboia Downs July 16. Diodoro said that everyone that has been associated with Edison thinks the farther he goes the better he will be. The main knock is he seemed to be all out to win the Jeffrey and it was a much weaker group than he will be facing here. His jockey, Rico Walcott, said he wanted to pull himself up when he made the lead, though. Walcott retains the mount and according to DRF’s Formulator the past five years he has won with half of his mounts riding for Diodoro in stakes races, including 2/3 in graded stakes. He also teamed up with Diodoro to win this race last year with Broadway Empire.

CONSECRATE will try to become the first filly to win the Canadian Derby since 2003 when Raylene edged Taiaslew. Consecrate is trained by Greg Tracy who thought he had the 2003 Derby won when Taiaslew held a five-length lead at the top of the stretch. Raylene put on a strong late move to nail him late, however. Consecrate is coming off an 11 ¼ romp in the Northlands Park Oaks and has the pedigree and running style to handle the grueling distance. She also carries 117 pounds, five less than the boys.

They look like the most logical contenders but REMEMBERTOBREATHE, who beat Off the Top a couple of times at Hastings could make some noise from a stalking position.

Price will have a big influence on how to bet the race. Edison looks like the play if he goes off close to his 4-1 morning line odds.