DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Arlington Park, August 16

G1 Arlington Million (race 10, 6:36 p.m. ET) by Marty McGee

The obvious lack of early pace in this 32nd Arlington Million overrides some other considerations. Side Glance (#7) looks like the front-runner, and although he has earned nearly $2.5 million as a world traveler, he wouldn’t seem to match up class-wise or otherwise with a few of these others. So judging by his United Nations effort, let’s look for him to set the table for the stretch run.

Magician (#3) will win easily if he can duplicate his run in the BC Turf last fall, but is that what will happen? His overseas form hasn’t exactly been stellar, even though he has been facing top-class company; in any case, his 7/5 M/L says it’s probably best to try to beat him.

Let’s try doing just that with Smoking Sun (#2, 9-2 M/L), the Niarchos homebred who figures sharp off the 3-month layoff after running a big one in Singapore. We’ve gotten really good reports on this one, and he’s liable to stay close when fresh off the bench; connections are extremely capable.

Up With the Birds (#5) and defending Million champion Real Solution (#6) also figure in the mix given their best efforts; they must be used on some tickets.

The play: Let’s key 2 in first and second with 3, 5, 6 in tri’s and supers while also using incremental plays in the horizontals leading into the Million.

Beverly D. (race 9, 5:54 pm ET) by Mary Rampellini

The 11-horse Beverly D., field is stacked with talent as six Grade 1 or Group 1 winners are signed on for the mile and three-sixteenths turf race for fillies and mares. An additional trio of Grade 3/Group 3 winners add further depth to race which looks like it should have an honest pace in a scenario that could set the plate for ALTERITE, JUST THE JUDGE, STEPHANIE’S KITTEN or SOMALI LEMONADE. Here’s a look at the complete lineup, from the rail:

JUST THE JUDGE is the most accomplished of the three European shippers on account of her Group 1 win in the Irish 1000 Guineas last year at the Curragh. She also was a Group 2 winner at Newmarket at 2. JUST THE JUDGE toted 136 pounds over a mile and a quarter last out in a Group 1, and will start under 123 in the Beverly D. As with the other European starters in this race, she was not entered with the diuretic Lasix, according to the overnight from Arlington. She might get a nice setup behind a few of these, and rates as a win candidate.

EURO CHARLINE is the lone 3-year-old in the field and will tote 117 pounds to the 123 carried by her elders. She will be making her first start beyond a mile and as one who has shown speed in her races, looking for her to be quite prominent in what might be an advantage in a large field. The concern is that she could be pressed by LA TIA and perhaps EMOLLIENT, both quality runners drawn to her outside. An up and coming sort.

STREET OF GOLD is a deep closer who was third by a neck in the local prep, the Grade 3 Modesty. It was her most notable stakes credential to date, with her other career stakes-placing coming over Arlington’s turf last year, when she ran third in the Hatoof. For this trip, STREET OF GOLD will pick up seven pounds off the Modesty Handicap. She is from a stakes-winning Giant’s Causeway mare who earned $163,500 and who has produced a stakes winner in Heiko ($159K).

EMOLLIENT has had more Grade 1 success than any of her peers in this race, as a three-time winner at that level. One of those wins came on the grass, on firm ground in the American Oaks at Hollywood Park last July. EMOLLIENT can be much closer to the pace than she found herself last out, when she was making her first start in about two months in the Diana at Saratoga. She can move forward in her second race back, and while the top class runner is a leading contender, a question mark with her is whether she might be fonder of the courses out West. More than capable.

STEPHANIE’S KITTEN is a two-time Grade 1 winner who has had success over the course at Arlington. She has the look of a runner on the improve right now, as she brings a pair of ‘forward-moving’ races to the table. She was fifth in the Just A Game in June then missed by a neck last out in the Diana. The races were her first back following a near two-month breather, and she could be sitting on a peak effort in her third start of her form cycle. Dettori is back aboard after getting a chance to team with STEPHANIE’S KITTEN in the Diana. Win candidate.

TANNERY won the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor at Woodbine last October, when she closed from last. She enters the Beverly D. off an uncharacteristic 10th place finish in the Diana, a race in which she was up on the pace. With some solid speed making up the field in the Beverly D., she could revert to the off-the-pace tactics she has used with much success. One who can share.

LA TIA is a candidate to show the way or perhaps track EURO CHARLINE, a stretchout prospect tucked to her inside. LA TIA is returning to turf for the first time this year after four straight races on synthetic tracks, and note she is a two-time winner over the grass at Arlington. And last year, she took them a long way on the lead in the Beverly D., when fifth to Dank. A danger if left to her own devices, but concerned she will be pressed by such top-quality runners as EMOLLIENT and SOMALI LEMONADE.

I’M ALREADY SEXY is the race’s horse-for-course with a 4-for-4 record over the local lawn. She accounted for the local Beverly D., prep, the Grade 3 Modesty, and note the start was her first on Lasix. Since the win, she shows a pair of strong five-eighths works. As with a number of these, she appears to be in line for at least a piece.

ALTERITE is another in this race’s Grade 1 winner club, having accounted for the Garden City last fall at Belmont Park. She made her first start of the year last out in the Diana, and was favored following her third to Dank in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. ALTERITE was prominent in the Diana in what was a useful kind of comeback and she would seem poised to move forward in her second race since November. She also might get a more suitable trip, perhaps stalking a few of these then bidding in the lane. Choice.

SPARKLING BEAM is a Group 3 winner whose career score came at about a mile and an eighth at Chantilly. She’s stepping up in class for astute connections and merits respect for her owner-trainer team, but also for her consistent nature as she has finished first or second in 10 of her 15 career starts. As with the other two European starters in the field, she is not listed to race on Lasix, according to the Arlington overnight. SPARKLING BEAM could have a nice move forward in her, and is one to preview in the paddock.

SOMALI LEMONADE became a Grade 1 winner last out when she captured the Diana over a handful of these. She has natural speed and has shown more of it since the addition of blinkers five races ago. SOMALI LEMONADE’s ability to be up out of trouble in a large field is an asset. She also has won races over a variety of different courses, another bonus as this will be her first start at Arlington. From her outside post, SOMALI LEMONADE could get an ideal tracking trip behind a few of these. Win candidate.

Secretariat S. (race 8, 5:15 pm ET) by Kenny Peck

Even a cursory look at the past performances for the Grade 1, $500,000 Secretariat Stakes would yield the opinion that ADELAIDE (#6) is the horse to beat. He's never been out of the exacta, and as he makes his sixth career start he may still be on the improve. He comes off a game loss in the Belmont Derby, and the resulting Beyer makes him very tough in this spot.

Still, all of this appeal comes at a price -- and it's a short price. ADELAIDE is 8/5 on the Morning Line, and though he's the most likely winner that's not a lot of value. To me, a horse like GENERAL JACK (#4), a winner of two straight with Beyers just below the 95 earned by the favorite, offers just that. He was sharp in those two scores, and though he easily meets better here that last race may be tougher than it appears. After all, Wallyanna, who was fourth in the Centaur Stakes, returned to beat a salty field in the Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga last week.

In addition to the above pair I'll also use the speedy TOURIST (#9), who will try to steal this despite the wise post. I'll box GENERAL JACK with those two favorites and also bet GENERAL JACK to win and place.