DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Arlington Oaks

INTERRUPTED is a gem in the rough, and I like her to beat morning-line favorite AURELIA’S BELLE in the Arlington Oaks.

Beyer Speed Figures in the 60s aren’t going to catch the eye of the figure-oriented, but those two Laurel turf races last year have to be seen to be appreciated: The filly, especially for a 2-year-old, had a huge stretch kick. Facing far, far better competition in the Florida Oaks, she was galloping along near the back and close to the rail when she briefly was hung in traffic while just starting to launch her run at the head of the homestretch. Against Testa Rossi and Istanford that left her too much to do to win, but Interrupted once again finished with great energy.

The Penn Oaks was a different trip for her, with Interrupted sticking much closer to the pace. Again, she rallied inside, and the best part of her one-mile race was the final furlong. That’s not surprising: This filly is bred for races at nine furlongs and farther, and this is her first start beyond one and one-sixteenth miles. She should love the trip, but Polytrack is a total unknown, and if she’s somehow bet down to favoritism, she goes from overlay to underlay because of the racing surface X factor.

Aurelia’s Belle is the deserving favorite. She has run on Polytrack, and has wins over the Turfway and Keeneland varieties: It’s a decent bet she can at least handle Arlington’s mixture. Aurelia’s Belle has started seven times but she’s still to some extent a work in progress. Trainer Wayne Catalano ran her in screen blinkers last out at Churchill and will try a more standard type of blinkers for this start. I’d say she passed the nine-furlong test adequately in the Regret, but I see Interrupted as having much greater upside on this day. STOCK YARD HEN is likely to finish well at the longer distance. She’s probably not good enough to win, but she probably was good enough to have won her last race had she not been steered into upper-stretch trouble, crucially losing momentum.

I see STELLARIS getting some love among handicappers, but while she romped in her most recent Arlington Polytrack start, she had just five foes in a race taken off turf.