DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: April 5, 2014

Bay Shore Stakes (Aqueduct, Race 8) by Mike Beer

Bay Shore: KOBE'S BACK (#8, 2/1) has appeared a real talent since running over stakes competition after a slow break on debut, and it seems pretty clear at this point that if he is to make his name it will be in shorter races. His Rebel was a disaster, and one best forgotten, but this turn back hits him between the eyes, there is pace signed on for him to run into, and he may simply be the best horse. He's tough to stand too strongly against. THE ADMIRAL (#7, 3/1) is also talented, and he too seems destined to be better over shorter, so the turn back is viewed as a positive for him, as well. It really all comes down to price with The Admiral, in my view. On paper he has no business being 3/1 in this field, and it's an easy decision to toss him at that price. At double that number, though, I could bet him. FAVORITE TALE (#6, 5/1) is fast and undefeated through three starts vs. inferior competition at Parx; gets a real test here, but may well be up for it. We'll see. Of the two remaining turn backs out of graded stakes tries, I would use COUP DE GRACE (#4, 4/1) and pass on FINANCIAL MOGUL (#3, 8/1), price discrepancy noted.

Santa Anita Oaks (Santa Anita, Race 5) by Michael Hammersly

Whether you agreed with the stewards’ decision that gave RIA ANTONIA the win in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies here Nov. 2 (count me among the dissenting) one thing rang true – the daughter of Rockport Harbor ran a very nice race. She was only a nose behind top-class and eventual champion She’s a Tiger and while that gal lugged out causing the interference which the stewards deemed enough for her disqualification, this gal’s proximity to that filly shows her quality.

In fact, in the weeks after her connections were talking big plans for the spring and we’re not talking Kentucky Oaks – they were talking Kentucky Derby and had plans in the winter to come back vs. the boys to see where they stood.

Well, as the saying goes, the best laid plans…you know the rest. Instead of coming back against males they opted for the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds Feb. 22. She was no factor at any point as she was slow into stride and finished a so-so fourth, beaten 14 1/4 lengths. Of course, that doesn’t look as bad now since the winner was Untapable, who romped by 9 1/2 lengths that day and came right back to romp again in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks.

RIA ANTONIA’s ownership didn’t think the filly was tight enough for the Rachel Alexandra and opted for a change. They shipped her West to a track they knew liked (this one) and moved her to Bob Baffert’s care.

There’s a sense of urgency for her to fire. Not only will that validate the move, and would also be proof by Baffert that he knew what to do with her, but after the Rachel Alexandra dud there’s a real question as to whether she’s even a Kentucky Oaks filly. They need the questions answered here.

Baffert removes the blinkers which she wore for the BC Juvenile Fillies and the Rachel Alexandra and the best news is that she has a typical Baffert work pattern, meaning fast works. Usually when Trainer Bob’s horses work fast, they tend to race fast.

It also doesn’t hurt she gets away from a monster like Untapable and doesn’t face the strongest bunch here. The top West Coast fillies She’s a Tiger, Streaming, Taste Like Candy, Awesome Baby and Crushed Velvet are not here for varying reasons. One who is here and must be dealt with is FASHION PLATE. That gal made her first start on dirt in a sprint here Dec. 29 and blasted maidens by 6 1/2 lengths. She then took the huge leap from there to run in the Grade 1 Las Virgenes, also her first route, here Feb. 1 and gamely led wire to wire. With the rail draw and her confirmed speed she’s sure to go and try to play keep-away again. But it’s worth noting that in the Las Virgenes runner-up Streaming and third-place finisher (and today’s rival) ARETHUSA were getting to her at the end of that mile race. Today she must deal with another half-furlong and there’s also the presence of HONEY RIDE, who showed in her maiden win she has speed. SMOOVE IT comes out of sprints where she was frequently prominent early, meaning on this stretchout she could be up there as well. In other words, the lead may not be as comfortable for FASHION PLATE as it was last time, and thus the extra half-furlong could be telling.

All the while RIA ANTONIA should get a great trip. Baffert’s works have pumped some speed into her to be sure, and that likely translates to a stalking trip and not her customary lag-back-and-try-to-make-one-big-run strategy.

As mentioned, RIA ANTONIA has questions to answer and they need to be answered today to determine where she goes from here. Hunch here is the answers comeback affirmative, though since she’s being opened as the 2-1 favorite don’t expect to get rich on her if that’s the case.

Gazelle Stakes (Aqueduct, Race 9) by Mike Beer

There are three main contenders in this Grade 2 route over nine-furlongs, and while it is likely that the winner is among the trio of #2 GOT LUCKY (3/1), #3 SWEET REASON (8/5) or #4 MY MISS SOPHIA (9/5), there are some questions about all of them. My Miss Sophia appears to be at a tactical advantage as the speed of the race, and figures tough to catch assuming she handles the pick up of more distance. Sweet Reason has already displayed her ability as a Gr1 winning 2yo, and while I wouldn't put too much stock in that 58 Beyer from her last race, she is a question mark going this far. Got Lucky, meanwhile, does not appear to be challenged by distance, but lacks much in the way of early speed, and needs to finally step up with a definitive fast race. It's likely one of them wins, but not so easy to separate them, unless you just take the position that My Miss Sophia is going to control and win.

Ashland Stakes (Keeneland, Race 9) by Marty McGee

The main decision to make here is how to use M/L fave Testa Rossi (#6) in what shapes up as a terrific wagering event. If you think her turf form will transfer to the Poly, well, yeah, she’s a definite play; if not, then leaving her out as the likely favorite is instant value-plus to your tickets.

That said, Chad sure seems to have a lot of confidence in this filly, and you can’t blame him. She’s been a world-beater so far, and even though her Beyers aren’t far superior, she just might have the edge here given her Poly-favoring from-the-back running style, especially in a bulky field that has as much as speed as this does. We’re in.

Besides leaning primarily on her in the multi-race plays, let’s key her first and second in some verticals with an eclectic mix that uses the other logical fillies, Room Service (#2) and Rosalind (#8), along with a few longer-priced fillies, those being Macaroon (#3), Thank You Marylou (#5), Candy Kitty (#9), and Seeking Her Glory (#12).

Wood Memorial (Aqueduct, Race 10) by Mike Beer

Much buzz surrounds this Wood Memorial, and most of that began when the connections of SOCIAL INCLUSION (#11, 2/1) announced that the undefeated, and untested, colt would run here. He didn't draw well on the outside, and is going to face a truer test in this race, but there's no denying his natural ability. He needs points if they are thinking Derby with him, and this race offers plenty of those, so expect him to bring his A game. Not much separating SAMRAAT (#8, 7/2) and UNCLE SIGH (#10, 5/1) after a pair of matchups in the Withers and Gotham. Samraat came away the better of the two both times, and it does feel like, to this point, he may just be better than Uncle Sigh. I wanted a closer to use in this race, and decided that WICKED STRONG (#2, 15/1)was the right one. Wicked Strong showed enough potential as a 2yo to get a shot in the Remsen (where he ran very well) and in the Holy Bull (where he didn't), but I like him getting away from Gulfstream Park and back to a track where he ran so well over this trip last year.

Carter Handicap (Aqueduct, Race 11) by Mike Beer

Solid cast assembled for the Grade 1 Carter, with headliner SAHARA SKY (#6, 2/1) arriving from California in an attempt to better his runnerup effort in this race last year. He was back to his good form in last month's San Carlos, and while he benefitted from a terrific ride from Joel Rosario, he was there when it was time and finished strong. One issue for Sahara Sky may be the lack of true quality speed in this race, and that may tilt the advantage to one of the newly turned 4yo's he will have to contend with here, CENTRAL BANKER (#1, 5/1) and CLEARLY NOW (#2, 5/1). Central Banker may have been best when moving first and being asked to carry a long run into a wickedly-paced Grade 1 Malibu last December, and he doesn't have to be way out of early contention. Clearly Now, meanwhile, is one or two heartbreaking losses away from compiling an elite sprinters resume as a three-year-old, and is more tactically inclined than his main competition. The layoff is the biggest concern, but if he's ready he'll be a handful, and the morning line price is more than fair.

Providencia Stakes (Santa Anita, Race 7) by Michael Hammersly

Pedigree is one thing, but if there’s no performance behind it then it’s just a glitzy wrapper. The good news with inexperienced 3-year-old filly NASHOBA’S GOLD is that not only does she have some bloodline oomph but she shows she more than belongs at this level, and while she was foiled in the China Doll at a mile here March 8 there’s every reason to believe she can remedy that situation at this longer 1 1/8-mile trip.

She’s a daughter of Smart Strike, not only a Grade 1 winner in his own right but sire of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin (who was also Grade 1 placed on turf) AND champion turf horse English Channel. And that’s just the top side. ON the bottom she’s out of Nashoba, meaning she’s kin to top-class mare Nashoba’s Key. All that gal did was win 8 of 10 (4 for 6 on turf) including the Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon and fourth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

In her debut, NASHOBA’S KEY bided her time early at this 1 1/8-mile trip and came with a strong sustained run to beat maidens. In her first try against winners she was tossed into the China Doll, at a shorter mile trip. She again lagged back and finished well but ran out of ground, finishing second to today’s foe and likely favorite DIVERSY HARBOR. But that was going a mile – surely today’s added furlong bolsters her cause. Also, that was just career start No. 2 so she can certainly improve.

Of course, she MUST improve if she’s to beat these but not only did her Beyer go north in start No. 2 but she since worked lights-out, including a bullet :49.60 bullet on turf here March 29. Gaines handled her vaunted half-sister so she likely knows what makes this gal tick and with a solid pace likely ensured, while she doesn’t much speed she still has more than archrival DIVERSY HARBOR, meaning she can like white in chess – that she’ll get to move first and get first run on that tough gal. And with DIVERSY HARBOR being undefeated in two starts it likely means this gal’s price stays palatable, likely in the 5-2/3-1 range.

Of course, DIVERSY HARBOR isn’t just going to lie down and this to ‘GOLD. DIVERSY HARBOR, a daughter of the aforementioned superstar Curlin, is 2 for 2, with both wins coming on this course, the first sprinting down the hill and the second, the China Doll, at a mile here. She tacks on another full furlong but there’s no reason to believe she won’t handle it.

That being said, she only beat ‘GOLD by a half-length in the China Doll and if anything today’s added furlong figures to help ‘GOLD, not to mention the fact ‘GOLD has a smidge more speed, meaning jockey Joe Talamo can rearview, see what ‘HARBOR is doing and adjust from there. This isn’t just a two-horse race, mind you. If NASHOBA’S GOLD can lock down the top spot there are others who could have a supporting role exotically speaking. FULL RANSOM won the Grade 3 Miesque at Betfair at Hollywood Park Nov. 30 and was a good second in the Blue Norther here Jan. 1. She was way too far back after a trouble start from a brutal post (No. 13) in the China Doll here March 8 and ran 12th but can surely do better. TIZ KISSABLE was 3rd in the China Doll, just 1 1/2 lengths behind DIVERSY HARBOR and a length behind NASHOBA’S GOLD, so by extrapolation if you like those two you have to respect TIZ KISSABLE. PRACTISING came from England off two sharp seconds and then blasted home to win her U.S. debut over maidens here Jan. 18. She didn’t repeat that big effort at this trip here march 13 when fourth (beaten 3 lengths by today’s foe ONE MORE) but she’s worked since, it’s good to see they actually move her up in class AND that leading rider Rafael Bejarano stays in a race where he likely had options.

Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita, Race 8) by Marcus Hersh

Half the field in the Santa Anita Derby has – in my book – no chance to win and only a very small chance even to nab third. The decidedly lower tier: RPRETTBOYFLOYD, FRIENDSWITH K MILL, BIG TIRE, and DUBLIN UP. Dublin Up, though, is a key cog in the race, because unless the addition of blinkers snaps some speed into Rprettyboyfloyd, he’s the only horse that can run early with favored CALIFORNIA CHROME. California Chrome doesn’t need the lead, but he doesn’t mind it, either, and the colt has made good progress learning to relax early in his races. If Dublin Up doesn’t show, and California Chrome strolls through an easy opening half-mile, I just don’t see anyone catching him.

Don’t get me wrong: I’m generally a Cal Chrome skeptic. I will be very surprised if even 9 furlongs – to say nothing of 10 – is ideal for a very speedy horse, and he has gotten (thanks partly to his own talent and professionalism) absolutely beautiful trips during his three-race win streak. I include his front-end run on a supercharged pace in the San Felipe in that category: It’s hasn’t been emphasized enough how much the Santa Anita main track played to inside paths and speed that card, and I don’t believe it was any coincidence that the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Handicap had identical race shapes.

To the other contenders. I believe HOPPERTUNITY is the best horse in the race. Ignore his career debut: This is no sprinter, and you’ll see on replay that Hoppertunity wastes little time running past the top finishers during his gallop-out. He regressed slightly and was too far off the pace in the Risen Star, and while he was lucky Tapiture got into trouble in the Rebel, he still beat Tapiture, a truly elite early-season 3-year-old. But Hoppertunity is making his third start in six weeks and twice has shipped during that time. His trainer just wants an interim race before the Kentucky Derby, and Hoppertunity has worked one mild five-eighths since the Rebel. He is not being trained for a peak race, and the race shape might be against him, and those factors make a short price tough to take.

CANDY BOY is overrated right now, but he has talent and potential, and he’s a big, strong horse without a lot of speed, and should still be moving forward. I’m not seeing the tough trip some have referenced in the Feb. 8 Lewis, and do keep in mind Candy Boy missed training shortly after that start. He has generally been progressive his entire career and in my mind stands a much better chance of comfortably seeing out nine furlongs than California Chrome, but Cal Chrome is easily the more advanced and tactically superior horse at the moment.

Which lead to the horse I’d be most interested to key in wagers Saturday – SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS. There’s a decent chance he was a short horse racing after a six-month layoff in the San Felipe, besides attempting an outside-stalking trip on an inside-speed track, and his was another gallop out that bears watching: Beaten 15 lengths by the winner, he had run past him – and everyone else – on the midpoint of the clubhouse turn. Not sure he can reproduce it on dirt, but his stride in his excellent Polytrack debut win last summer was very impressive. He’s the one with upside at a price today, and even a second-place finish behind one of the big three would appealingly boost exacta and trifecta payoffs.