DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: April 26, 2014

San Francisco Mile (Golden Gate, Race 7) by Kenny Peck

Despite the presence of two clear favorites, Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 San Francisco Mile appears to be a very good betting race.

That's because those two Morning Line choices, SUMMER HIT (#6, 8-5) and HORIZONTALYSPEAKIN (#7, 2-1) are both horses who do their best racing on or near the lead, and their running style could compromise the chances of both. And if they do, in fact, engage in a race-long duel, that could set the stage for a closer. And with that pair taking a big part of the money, value will be there, regardless of who wins.

I'm siding with FAST TRACK (#8), who comes off an allowance win at Turf Paradise. He fits fairly well in terms of Beyers but he has lots of room to post an improved figure here, with a quick pace likely. He has only one win in six prior starts over this Golden Gate course but this could be the best set-up he's gotten here yet.

FAST TRACK is worth a win bet if anywhere near the Morning Line price of 8-1, but I'll also use him in exactas with the two favorites.

Texas Mile (Lone Star, Race 8) by Byron King

GRAND CONTENDER showed his class with runner-up finishes in the Louisiana and Mineshaft Handicaps this winter at Fair Grounds before heading over to Delta and winning in the gallop there in the mud; he is at his best at a mile, and though accustomed to racing on the front end, is not a need-the-lead type. TAPTOWNE came to Lone Star early to avoid excessive shipping after the close of Oaklawn; he ran reasonably well in his seasonal bow to be third in the Razorback, coming on the heels of a campaign in 2013 in which he made over $466,000; like the top choice, a mile is his game. BOURBON COURAGE hasn’t won since taking the Super Derby in September 2012, but some of that has been due to facing tough competition; connections were likely a bit frustrated, adding blinkers for a couple races and then taking them off again; on a positive note, he comes off his highest Beyer Speed Figure since March of last year in running a 97 at Oaklawn recently in a slow-paced allowance; should get a hotter pace here to set up his rally. Others capable of perhaps getting a small piece of the exotics include FOREST MOUSE, a seven-time stakes winner seeking his third consecutive win, and veteran STACHYS, who was recently third in the same Mar. 15 allowance at Oaklawn in which BOURBON COURAGE was second.

Derby Trial (Churchill, Race 8) by Marty McGee

With Chitu (#2) definitely to scratch, Bayern (#1) definitely will run in the Trial, and probably will be in the 3-5 neighborhood as the remaining Baffert rep. Assuming he runs his race, he’ll whistle, so the quest becomes how to capitalize on that likelihood by expanding into multi-race ventures and the verticals.

Myositis Dan (#10) looks like a very usable “under” key, having validated his solid GP dirt efforts with that dominating alw. victory over at Kee. Moreover, he’s likely to get a nice stalk-and-see trip from his favorable post; look for him to be closest to Bayern on the wire.

The play: Key #1 on top in tri’s and supers, with #10 in the second and third holes, like this: 1 w 10 w 3/4/5/9 and 1 w 3/4/5/9 w 10, and other variations thereof if desired.