DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: April 19, 2014

Miami Mile (Calder, Race 7) by Kenny Peck

There's no shortage of runners for the Grade 3, $100,000 Miami Mile Handicap at Calder on Saturday, with 12 in the body of the race, as well as two Main Track Only entrants and another on the Also Eligible list. And, not surprisingly, there's a fair amount of speed signed on.

Unfortunately for those always looking to beat the favorite, the race figures to set up ideally for SUMMER FRONT (#11), the 5/2 choice on the Morning Line. Not only does SUMMER FRONT hold a pace edge on the speeds but he also has some of the best Beyers in the field, and that combination not only makes him a top contender but it also means he'll be well bet. The winner of the 2013 edition of this race has faced better -- and more than held his own -- in recent starts, and given a clean trip he figures to make his presence felt late in this race as well.

That doesn't mean the race is devoid of value, however. as horses like MONUMENT HILL (#9) -- who comes off a win against claimers and could be overlooked a bit in the betting -- could fall into a nice trip. He has decent figures and fits the race flow, and that could be enough to get him a big part of this. ALLEY OOP OOP (#7) is a little light on Beyers but he should appreciate the expected race flow, and he'll be a nice price.

One closer I'll try to beat is HEY LEROY (#2). True, he seems to fit well based on his running style and recent figures but he was with the race flow in that last one, when he posted a career-best Beyer, as well as in the race two back, when he was close-up to a slow pace. Even with a quick, contested pace likely, this type -- those runners who are coming off top efforts with the aid of favorable set-ups -- are almost always worth playing against at a relatively short price.

My play will be to key SUMMER FRONT over MONUMENT HILL and ALLEY OOP OOP, as well as a small box of the three and a press with SUMMER FRONT and MONUMENT HILL.

Ben Ali Stakes (Keeneland, Race 8) by Marty McGee

Can’t help but lean toward several horses who’ve run huge races over this Kee Poly, those being Nikki’s Sandcastle (#3, 6-1 M/L), Joha (#4, 12-1), Frac Daddy (#9, 8-1), and Newsdad (#10, 3-1). Nikki’s Sandcastle was terrific in winning the Fayette here in the fall; Joha won the G1 Br. Futurity at 2; Frac Daddy exploded in an alw. win last fall; and Newsdad set a track record (at 10 fur.) at 3 before validating that with a victory in the 2012 Fayette.

The play: Let’s use a solid approach and simply tie up all four of those every which way possible (multi-race part-wheels and all the verticals) and look for history to repeat itself, so to speak.

Distaff Handicap (Aqueduct, Race 8) by Mike Beer

The six-furlong Distaff Handicap (Grade 2) brings together an interesting mix of female sprinters, and features the return of KAUAI KATIE, who hasn’t been seen since disappointing as a heavy favorite in Saratoga’s Grade 1 Prioress last July. Taking away the two times they tried to stretch her out in distance (both in Grade 1 company), Kauai Katie has won 6-of-7 career starts in much the best fashion, and it must be assumed that something went wrong with her in that flat Prioress effort, which led to the long layoff. If she returns at her best, a pretty big “if”, she may simply be better than her competition here.

One thing the Distaff in not lacking for is pace. With speedy New York-bred LA VERDAD drawn to the rail, MUNNINGS SISTER, a gate-to-wire winner over 5.5 furlongs at Gulfstream in her 5yo debut, and pace setter in the Grade 3 Las Flores at Santa Anita last out in post 4, and Kauai Katie outside of them, there is the potential for a battle up front, and that may have players looking for the closer. The one most may land on is MY PAL CHRISY, a consistent if unspectacular 6yo mare trained by the always dangerous Marty Wolfson. My Pal Chrisy will be looking for her first graded stakes win as she makes her 47th career start, and maybe this is the right spot with the right pace set up, but I am not thrilled with her as a win candidate in this Distaff, especially if her off-the-pace profile leads to a short price.

The horse I’ll try to get home is BRIDGEHAMPTON, a lightly raced Bernardini filly trained by Mike Hushion. After letting go of a clear stretch lead in the Grade 3 Victory Ride last summer, Bridgehampton went to the sidelines, and didn’t return to the races until March 23rd, where she defeated allowance foes in virtual wire-to-wire fashion. I like that she has that effort under her belt, as she seemed to be a little fresh returning from that long layoff while pulling her rider up to the lead despite strong restraint, before finally just going on with it and rolling clear. She weakened a bit late, which I’ll take as a good sign for her fitness level, and hope that she can be more relaxed here with that race taking some of the edge off.

Bridgehampton is listed at 10/1 on the morning line, a more than fair price on her, and is worth a win bet at a couple of points lower. I’ll also play her in the exacta with Kauai Katie.

Lexington Stakes (Keeneland, Race 9) by Byron King

POKER PLAYER was dull in two starts on the Turfway Poly, passing only tired horses in the Battaglia and then finishing 10th in the Spiral. But the Keeneland Poly seems to have less kickback, which should benefit a late runner like him. He won the off-the-turf Bourbon here in fast time in October of last year in his lone Keeneland appearance. He gets blinkers off, and he could go off even higher than his 10-1 morning line. MR SPEAKER is one of the top 3-year-old turfers in the country, and if he takes to the Poly, these horses are likely running for second, but not all grass horses do, something to keep in mind if he is a short price. DIVINE OATH is perfect in two starts, winning turf races over Ring Weekend and Big Bazinga, horses that gained attention on the Derby trail this spring. Like MR SPEAKER, has lacks Poly experience. In checking Formulator statistics of all eight trainers with horses in the Lexington, 20 percent won – not a bad clip – but on average 6 of their 10 turf-to-synthetic runners were off the board. Turf success does not always transfer to Poly success.

Sixty Sails Handicap (Hawthorne, Race 8) by Marcus Hersh

The 2014 Sixty Sails Handicap – one of the great crapshoot races of our time?

I can’t see Distinctive Review winning, but that’s where strong opinions hit a wall, and it’s really not an exaggeration to say that victory by any one of the other seven entrants would not come as a surprise. If I’m playing the late pick 4 on this card, I’m spreading as wide as possible.

I think FLASHY AMERICAN wins on her best 2013 form, but have no idea if she is anywhere close to producing that performance level after a dull comeback run in the Azeri at Oaklawn. That the Ky-based barn eschews the $300K Fleur de Lis on May 2 at CD for this spot & names a rider that has gone 1-24 for them over the course of 15 YEARS does not inspire a great deal of confidence.

A repeat of GAMAY NOIR’s Rampart win last out at Gulfstream makes her a major player, but that is asking for a repeat of a lifetime-best performance by quite some margin. The Florida-based barn has yet to win at Hawthorne with eight starters dating to 1998.

What is ANA LUISA? The Pletcher barn has won four of the last eight editions of this race, but this looks more like a fishing expedition than a surgical strike. It takes a lot of projecting to put her on top, and with the Pletcher / Napravnik combo, you’re not getting value.

Five-year-old DIXIE STRIKE has run 21 times: We know who she is. Her Bayaoka two back puts her in the hunt, but her lone dirt win came against Ontario-breds.

DRESS THE PART stretched out from two sprints and won her stakes debut last out at Tampa. Could she have gotten a better trip in that race?

SONJA’S ANGEL is a reformed starter-allowance horse getting lifetime-best speed figures racing on the lead at short-stretch Gulfstream. I’ll be surprised if she can see out the 9fs trip at long-stretch HAW without help from a speed-favoring track (not out of the question).

We end with IMPOSING GRACE, who I made the top pick in the mildest of calls. She got hurt after winning the G3 Matron on Polytrack over this distance last summer, but has dirt form from earlier last year to back up that performance, and seems to be coming around after a slow start to her form cycle. Am I stepping up and firing as a solo play? Most certainly not.

Illinois Derby (Hawthorne, Race 9) by Marcus Hersh

I picked CLASS LEADER to beat MIDNIGHT HAWK in the Illinois Derby, but I don’t feel really good about it. In fact, I see a danger of Class Leader falling into the dreaded “bad-second-choice” category. He is almost certainly going to be seen as the most plausible alternative to odds-on favorite Midnight Hawk, and while Midnight Hawk is going to be overbet, the same thing – to a lesser extent – could happen with Class Leader. My strong opinion is that Midnight Hawk is going to wind up a 7-furlong or one-turn-mile horse by the end of summer. He is keen early in his races, has a lot of speed, the moves he makes at the three-eighths or five-sixteenths pole (far turn) have stagnated by the eighth pole so far, and he doesn’t gallop out much after his routes. But let’s be real: The last three horses to beat Midnight Hawk are Kentucky Derby favorite California Chrome, Chitu, and Candy Boy. You might not think any are great horses. But compared to the general level of competition here? Really, there is no comparison.

Maybe Class Leader, who did take a decent step forward last time in his second route race, and who appears (and is said by his trainer) to be training well, is going to make a sustained rally and run down Midnight Hawk. He pays $10 to win? And keys a $24 exacta? That’s not exactly catching lightning in a bottle, and it’s why I’m not enthusiastic about betting this race on its own. Now, if you could get Class Leader (or whatever non-Midnight Hawk horse you like) into the pick 3 or pick 4, that’s where some value might be extracted. DYNAMIC IMPACT made a big Beyer move last time – beating seven maidens going a short-stretch mile. Many questions here. KING CYRUS has an appealing 9-furlong pedigree and is blinkers-on. Does he have any real talent? I liked EMMETT PARK’s two Turfway Poly wins, and he is a nice specimen in the flesh, but post 14 alone doesn’t account for his Risen Star dud, and he might prove little more than a clunky closer. GLOBAL STRIKE should be close to Midnight Hawk early; that didn’t work out so well last out at Sunland.

Charles Town Classic (Charles Town, Race 12) by Kenny Peck

All eyes will be on GAME ON DUDE (#3) in the Grade 2, $1,500,000 Charles Town Classic, and rightfully so -- his win in the Santa Anita Handicap in his last start was absolutely superb, he won this race last year (and was 2nd in 2011), and he's 4/5 on the Morning Line, but could well be much shorter than that at post time. Yet with all that being said, this is no easy spot for this 7-year-old gelding.

That's because GAME ON DUDE is clearly at his best when he's on the lead, and there's a good amount of other speed in here, starting with the talented MORENO (#2). Unraced since the Breeders' Cup Classic, where he helped to set a quick tempo before he faded late, MORENO is also at his best when he's with the pace, and that could mean the tow favorites in the race will have the toughest trips. GAME ON DUDE could well be the better of the two, and he could be good (great?) enough to put that runner away and still stave off the closers, but is it worth taking a very short price on a horse that seems destined to be under pressure every step of the way?

I'd vote "No" on that question, of course, and the horse I'm using equally in exotic bets is LONG RIVER (#5). He was a beaten favorite in the Excelsior last time out but he was game in defeat, and the Beyer he earned gives him credibility in this spot. More than that, though, he projects to be in a perfect spot behind a quick, contested pace in the Charles Town Classic, as the aforementioned favorites as well as RULER OF LOVE (#4) figure to set the table for the closers, and of that group he does seem to be best.

I'll make a win bet on LONG RIVER, and play him in exactas over GAME ON DUDE. I'll also make a smaller exacta play with GAME ON DUDE on top.