DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: April 12, 2014

Shakertown Stakes by Kenny Peck

From a gambling perspective, the Grade 3, $100,000 Shakertown is usually one of America's best turf sprints of the year. The 2014 edition, however, doesn't seem to be all that deep. That, unfortunately, seems to mean that the top contenders hold the advantage.

SOMETHING EXTRA (#2) is one such runner. He was just a nose behind HAVELOCK (#6) in last year's Shakertown, and neither would be a surprise here. The former has been away since July but he runs well fresh, and the barn does well with absentees; the latter is a professional turf sprinter who is always tough under these circumstances. HAVELOCK has been on the shelf since November but he won the 2013 Shakertown off a nearly identical layoff.

GANTRY (#13) is always tough, turf or dirt, and he comes off a win under similar conditions at Fair Grounds. There are some concerns, however, beginning with the fact that he's marooned out in post 13 after breaking from the rail last time. Also, he benefited from a great trip in that race, perfectly spotted behind a quick pace. Finally, this looks like a better field than what he faced there. He's capable, of course, and he's worth using in exotics, but the 5-1 ML price is about the bare minimum I'd accept.

HOGY (#9), who comes into the Shakertown off a narrow loss against optional claimers on the dirt, is my top pick. He loves sprinting on the turf, and his best figures in such races are solid. He was no threat in this race last year after a dirt prep at Hawthorne but he was probably too far off the pace there. He has the speed to stay close, and he should be expected to be near the front-runners this time around, and that would help his chances.

I'm playing HOGY to win, and in exactas with SOMETHING EXTRA, HAVELOCK and GANTRY.

Madison Stakes by Marty McGee

Little doubt that Judy the Beauty (#4) will prove tough as the 8-5 M/L favorite, not only because she’s been first or second in all but one of her 14 career starts, but also because the Poly and 7-furlong distance clearly play in her favor. She and Johnny V. will be sitting off some of the other lesser speed in here before making their presence felt in a big way.

Still, isn’t there a way to get a little more value out of the race? Seems like Apropos (#2) is a filly sitting on a huge effort, while Better Lucky (#6) is a two-time Grade 1 winner who figures very dangerous on the turn-back and surface switch while fresh from a layoff. Neither would be a big surprise, while Byrama (#7) also could be a late screamer for part of the purse.

The play: Tri and super part-wheels keying Judy the Beauty in the second and third holes, like this: 2/6 with 4 with 2/6/7; and 2/6 with 2/6/7 with 4. And you could always toss in some of the other fringe players, i.e., #8 and #9, in some of the super part-wheel using basically this same framework.

Jenny Wiley Stakes by Marty McGee

Great race, great betting race. You’ve got STEPHANIE’S KITTEN making her first start away from trainer Wayne Catalano, who had handled her from the start of her racing career as a 2-year-old in Chicago. She and CENTRE COURT, who won the 2013 Jenny Wiley, are the established elite here, but there are several 4-year-olds here with a chance to ascend to that position, particularly KITTEN’S POINT. I think there’s a decent chance Kitten’s Point goes postward higher than her 5-1 morning line, but she is at least moderately appealing even at that price.

Whatever knocked the filly out of action following her third in the Ashland about a year ago has not compromised KITTEN’S POINT’s performance – not at all. She closed furiously to definitively outclass 10 N2X allowance foes in her Feb. 8 comeback, and was hard on the heels of Centre Court at the finish of the Honey Fox. Kitten’s Point was drawn in post 8 both those starts, and I love the rail draw for her here. There’s not a lot of pace, and with an alert break there’s no reason she can’t tuck in just behind the leaders while saving ground. She likes the KEE course, as evidenced by a good second at age 2, and if she still is coming into herself, as appears to be the case, this might be the most attractive price we see for awhile.

I thought CENTRE COURT could evolve into the top female middle-distance horse in N. America last year, and her form totally went the other direction, but she returned from a long absence to win the Honey Fox looking just as good as the previous season, and she attempts to win the Wiley for the second year in a row while on the same pattern as 2013. I think there’s a good chance she produces a representative effort, but the widest draw and a somewhat short price opens might make it worth leaning elsewhere for a top pick. I want to see one from STEPHANIE’S KITTEN, who was sidelined at Saratoga and should be rustier than several capable foes. Smallest sample size possible beyond null, but her lone Keeneland run did not show the mare at her best. Next time?

DISCREET MARQ, the primary pace, is playable. There was no shame in losing to Egg Drop to finish her 3-year-old campaign, and she had the feel of a horse who was just hitting her stride the last couple months of her 3-year-old season. Her speed has been entirely rate-able, and if she opens up at the three-sixteenths after a slow pace, look out.

EMOTIONAL KITTEN ranked one notch below Discreet Marq last year, but could sneak into the bottom of exotics. FITFUL SKIES is a high-level performer but with no record of success at a distance this short, and may be prepping for something longer. The rest are up against it.

Blue Grass Stakes by Marty McGee

Wow, what a betting race. Starting right off with an “against” mentality vis-à-vis Bobby’s Kitten (#5), as this race shape probably doesn’t suit his head-strong style, and there’s no way of knowing how he’ll handle the synthetic (and no reason to try to find out if he’s the favorite, as he most likely will be, in this kind of wide-open event).

With him dismissed, there’s value galore to be had, and thinking that a couple of returnees from the Spiral could very well run lights-out here, those being Asserting Bear (#1) and Coastline (#11). Two others on the outside, Medal Count (#13) and Gala Award (#14), also figure well with their best efforts.

Clearly this is a scramble that will call for crafty wagering to make a score, so without getting too specific, we’ll be assembling horizontal and vertical tickets using those four as key plays and wouldn’t object to any sprinkles that also use #3, #8, and #12. This race really could be a toteboard-rocker, so take your shots.

Potrero Grande Stakes by Kenny Peck

Determining the race flow for the Grade 2, $200,000 Potrero Grande sure seems elementary: MONGOLIAN SATURDAY (#1), BIG MACHER (#7) and CYCLOMETER (#8) all figure to be up close early on, and if the pace is quick as a result the race figures to set up the closers. The problem, however, is the latter pair are both capable of rating. So it becomes a bit of a guess: Do either, or both, take back, completely changing the pace scenario?

I voted "No", and went with WINE POLICE (#2). He lost as the favorite at Sunland last time out but he ran well, showing his customary tactical speed and rallying late. He earned a solid figure for that effort, and his past history shows that he runs at least as well in his second start back off a layoff. His inside post is another plus.

MIDNIGHT TRANSFER (#4) cuts back a bit in distance, and he's another who would benefit from a quick, contested pace up front. He needs it, as he's a stone closer reliant on race flow, but given that he has a solid kick under the right circumstances, and he has posted Beyers in the past that are plenty good enough to win this.

WILD DUDE (#6) is the 8/5 Morning Line favorite, and deservedly so. He has solid, steady figures, and he had won three straight until losing in the San Carlos last time, a race where he was caught up close to the pace due to some mild splits. This one should set up much better for him, though the price will not be very enticing.

WINE POLICE is the win bet, and I'll be keying him with MIDNIGHT TRANSFER and WILD DUDE.

Arkansas Derby by Marcus Hersh

Call me crazy, but I don’t think you’re supposed to take a short price on a horse shipping for the first time, running in a stakes race for the first time, stretching out to the longest distance of his career, and facing a far deeper group of foes than he’s ever encountered, all this while making his first start in almost two months because he had a minor injury that necessitated a schedule change.

Maybe BAYERN is an absolute freak, but I certainly can’t bet him to find out, not when there’s a good chance he’s the favorite here. He laid down some serious middle and late splits while winning his two-turn debut in his second start, but c’mon, the horse was out on an easy lead in a short field, and the fact that Tap It Rich finished second after pulling his usual in-race misbehavior speaks to the lack of substance in that heat. Not a huge fan of sire Offlee Wild going longer and longer on dirt, but there’s no faulting the strength of the female side of the family, and the horse is clearly a gifted athlete. He is well drawn to use his speed, but there are other pace elements, and it’s highly unlikely he gets anything like the waltz in the park gifted him last time.

Realizing that intent is a major part of the equation, I think TAPITURE wins this. He probably already is in the Kentucky Derby on points, and there’s no way connections are squeezing as hard as they can, but that doesn’t mean Tapiture isn’t ready for a career best in the third start of his season. He has pretty much moved forward his entire career, and he obviously took the worst of things (his own doing) in the Rebel, where he galloped out ahead of victorious Hoppertunity, who always gallops out with gusto. He threw his head a couple times on the clubhouse turn in the Rebel, but he generally settled much better than he had in the Southwest, and I expect him to tuck right into a pocket trip from post 2 (Knock Em Flat will be scratched). Oaklawn draws a huge crowd for this card, which really influences prices, and I think the general public is going for Bayern over Tapiture.

I wanted to like COMMISSIONER more than I do. He did stumble after the start (reportedly losing a shoe) and was the only horse making late ground in the Sunland Derby, where wind enhanced the middle fractions and slowed the come-home time. But his signature win over Top Billing came with all the racing luck in the world, and his flat sixth in the Fountain of Youth seems cause for concern. Won’t use him higher than the place hole. I just don’t know what to make of STRONG MANDATE anymore. He’s as well bred for nine furlongs as any horse here, but if you look at his actual races, he has shown no sign of excelling at two turns. He led through a moderate pace in the Rebel and really should have finished stronger.

RIDE ON CURLIN got a 91 Beyer in his second career start last summer at Ellis. He has a strong foundation, and it might be unwise to assume his good third in the Rebel was a one-off. CONQUEST TITANs trainer blamed a change in tactics from dead closer to mid-pack stalker for a disappointing Tampa Bay Derby, and that struck me as a disappointing lack of versatility. DANZA almost has to force the issue stretching from sprints with the rail: If his trainer’s name was Ron Fletcher and not Todd Pletcher, he’d be 38-1.