DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: April 11, 2014
Maker's 46 Mile (Keeneland, Race 9) by Marty McGee
Now this is what the people came to see: Wise Dan (#3) strutting his stuff. Layoff, schmayoff … Charlie has him ready to roll, just like last year, and it’d qualify as a huge surprise if one of these other older turfers can stop him.
That said, the only way to make a little jing is to punch it home in both the horizontals (there’s a $200k late-pick-4 pool guarantee for Friday) and the verticals. Seems you’d have to take a stand against at least one of the three obvious potential upsetters, and I’ll target Za Approval (#1) and his so-so California return to make him vulnerable to the other two, Reload (#5) and Lochte (#6).
The play: Wise Dan as the proverbial “free space” in the multi’s, as well as exacta and tri keys of 3 over 5/6.
Apple Blossom Handicap (Oaklawn, Race 10) by Byron King
CLOSE HATCHES had to work harder than many expected to win the Azeri in her seasonal bow, but it was likely a race she needed to regain fitness after having the winter off. She was one of the elite 3-year-old fillies of last year, winning the Gazelle, Mother Goose, and Cotillion Stakes, and also was notably second to Beholder in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff…nothing of the quality of Beholder in a short Apple Blossom lineup. LET FAITH ARISE sprinted exclusively last year, but with maturity has developed into a router. Following two seconds in graded company, she picked up her first win in the Santa Margarita, a Grade 1 on paper, but a race really no better than the Grade 2s in which she ran earlier in the year. She showed more speed than usual last out in pressing the pace and kicking clear late, but typically plays stalks. ROSE TO GOLD won the Houston Ladies Classic under a rail-skimming ride and then regressed in her next start when wheeled back quickly to run in the Sabin at Gulfstream; willing to excuse that race and expect her to return to form over a track she likes; 2 for 3 with Borel up, and as she showed in the Houston Ladies, she is not afraid to run on the fence, Borel’s favorite position. Late running STANWYK seems unlikely to spring the upset, but could rally for a minor award. She has moved forward since being shifted from turf to dirt. As for the locally-based runner FIRE BABY, don’t be shocked to see her gunned to the lead. She took this race last year wire to wire, and her best chance is to try to steal this.