DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: April 10, 2014

Count Fleet Stakes (Oaklawn, Race 9, Thursday)

A very interesting edition of the Grade 3, $300,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap is on tap for Thursday, as the six furlong sprint features not only the 2013 Breeders' Cup Sprint winner but a gelding who many consider the most improved sprinter in the country.

It's the 2nd start of the year for SECRET CIRCLE (#1), who was upset in the Grade 2 Palos Verde in his 2014 bow, his first start since capturing the Breeders' Cup Sprint back in November. Obviously, he's going to be a handful in the Count Fleet, as his Beyers fit well, he's trained very well for this, and he's versatile enough to lead or rate. That should allow jockey Martin Garcia to work out a favorable trip from the rail, regardless of how the race shapes up.

It will not be easy for SECRET CIRCLE, however, and he will offer little value. In fact, from a betting perspective, it seems worth taking a shot against him if he's overbet, as expected. Many bettors will probably look to beat the favorite with HEITAI (#3), who comes off four straight wins, all of them by open lengths. Three of the four victories came against Louisiana breds, but the Beyers he has posted make him a serious threat to win this, the toughest test of his career. A one-dimensional speed, his strategy is clear: he'll look to steal it, and as the main pacesetter in this field of six he has a big chance to take them wire-to-wire.

My knocks on HEITAI are twofold: the price will be light despite the fact that he's up in class for this, and his last win, his lone recent win that was not against statebreds, was with the aid of an extremely strong bias, one that greatly favored speed on the rail. And while that bias was a big reason why HEITAI was able to defeat prolific sprinter Delaunay, it was also a big reason why LEMON DROP DREAM (#5) had his three-race win streak snapped.

LEMON DROP DREAM will be a big price in the Count Fleet, coming off the loss to HEITAI in the Kenner last time, but that race is an absolute toss because of the bias that was in place. LEMON DROP DREAM was wide and off the pace, and on that track that was the recipe for a guaranteed loss. He ran quite well to get the show under the circumstances, and given a fair racing strip he has lots of room to move forward today. His job will be a lot easier if the two favorites hook up in the early stages, but regardless of how the race develops LEMON DROP DREAM seems to be the right value play. I'll play him to win, and in exactas on top of and underneath the two favorites.