DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Amsterdam Stakes
CAPTAIN SERIOUS looks like the one to beat. I liked him before the scratch and he looks even better with Rock Fall out of the race. He reeled of three sharp wins sprinting over NY-breds and then proved himself in open company when he came so close to winning the Grade 3 Dwyer in his first route attempt. The horse that edged him in the last few jumps, Kid Cruz, was coming off a win in the $150K Easy Goer at Belmont where he received a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. Captain Serious will appreciate the move back to a sprint, is versatile, and drew a good post where Ortiz can either put him right on the lead or let him sit off what now figures to be a moderate pace. More than likely he will be the one they have to catch. Also, according to Formulator, the past five years Hushion has a 22 percent strike rate with horses going from a route to a sprint. COUP DE GRACE ran a huge race to win a minor stakes at Delaware in his first start for trainer Larry Jones, and then came back to work a bullet five furlongs in :59.60 second July 21, so he could be ready to take another step forward. Jones doesn’t venture this way very often, but he usually means business when he shows up. Between 2009 and 2011 he had a 1-2-1 record in Graded stakes at Saratoga. Coup de Grace won the Grade 3 Bay Shore at Aqueduct earlier this year so he certainly fits here. The main concern is the flow of the race might not work in his favor.
NOBLE MOON is the only Grade 2 winner in the field but it does look like he wants more distance.
TIZXNOWFORAMERICA becomes more interesting with Rock Fall out of the race. He took a big step forward in his second start as a sophomore and could be sitting on a peak effort in the third start of his current form cycle. With his good speed he should be prominent right from the start. A negative is that the past five years Albertrani is just 1/22 with horses running in Graded stakes at Saratoga.
C. Zee has Grade 2 credentials with a second behind Wildcat Red in the Hutcheson at Gulfstream in Feb., and with a sharp work here last Friday he appears to be sitting on a big effort. He will be making his first start for trainer Nick Zito, and according to Formulator the past five years Zito has a 21 percent strike rate with new shooters. The bad news is that he is just 1/25 with horses running in Graded stakes at Saratoga over the same time period. The flow of the race will probably work against him, but we would include him on the bottom half of any exotics ticket.
Captain Serious looks like a standout but he won’t be the 4-1 we were hoping for prior to the scratch. Use him as single in any multiple-race wagers. Coup de Grace and Tiznowforamerica should be the key components of any exotic tickets.