Dover: Analysis for Thursday's Matron Stakes
Dover Downs will present four divisions of the Matron Stakes for 2-year-olds on Thursday that appear to be very competitive on paper and include a number of Breeders Crown participants. First race post-time is 4:30 PM. Below is analysis for each race:
Race 1 - $167,200 Matron Colt Trot
(4) TYPE A is 15-1 morning line and if I can get 5-1 or higher, the risk of him breaking seems worth the reward. I do believe he is the most talented horse in the field. (1) INCOMMUNICADO romped at Plainridge Park versus somewhat softer competition. He's the one to beat but far from a lock. (5) MAGICAL MUSCLE MAN finds a relatively easy spot this week and isn’t as bad as his 0-for-9 record looks.
Race 6 - $189,800 Matron Filly Trot
(2) PUB CRAWL draws into a perfect spot in post two as she’ll be able chase away speedster (1) MAY KARP from the pylons and work out a great trip. The latter has been coming up short in tougher spots lately but her speed definitely plays here. (8) FOX VALLEY LIZA ran into a monster last time at The Meadowlands. With the right trip, she can play with these.
Race 8 - $177,700 Matron Filly Pace
(3) PAULAS BET HANOVER picked up a check in the Breeders Crown by pacing home strongly with no shot. She should be helped by joining this field loaded with outside speed players and could trip-out. (4) DARBY HANOVER has raced well just about every week and has the advantage of drawing inside the outside speed. (8) MACKIE HANOVER qualified back well after a couple of weeks off. She's shown ability but is the most lightly-raced in the group. (7) CONTINUALOU won a Breeders Crown elimination and closed well in the final but seems likely to be overbet here.
Race 12 - $193,000 Matron Colt Pace
(4) EXPLOIT came home in 25 1/5 with Lasix added last time and couldn’t come close to the leaders. The post is perfect this week and if he can find enough early speed to make the front by the quarter, he may just keep going. (8) SOUTHWIND GENDRY is clearly the best horse in the race and only missed by a head in the Breeders Crown. That said, coming back just six days later from post 8 where he’ll need to be used hard to get the top, I just can't accept the likely short price. (1) SOUTHWIND PETYR only needs to stay close to have a big shot at hitting the exotics.