Double Tuff, Unbridled Class may be beatable favorites on four-stakes card

The Indiana-bred stakes come fast and furious toward the end of the Indiana Grand meet. There are four of them on Wednesday’s card, and sharp form from one race might not hold up through the next.

Take Double Tuff, who at least on the Beyer Speed Figure scale ran the best race of his life winning the William Henry Harrison on Aug. 21. If he runs that race right back he’ll win the $100,000 Brickyard for Indiana-bred 3-year-olds and up going six furlongs on dirt, but the depths of handicapping lie waiting to be plumbed within that two-letter word, “if.”

Double Tuff is even-money on the morning line for the Brickyard and will make that price look solid with a repeat of that recent race. He was bet that day like he couldn’t lose, going a surprisingly strong favorite over his old rival Operation Stevie, who also runs back in the Brickyard. A bargain claim three races ago for just $16,000, Double Tuff already has earned that back and plenty more for the group of owners that claimed him and trainer Randy Matthews. He’s worked back a solid-seeming half-mile since his last start, and bettors must decide for themselves whether to take a stand or take the short price.

Operation Stevie is totally pace-dependent and lacked his peak-level spark last time, and he figures to go postward an underlay. That leaves Wholelotachocolate as the pick here. Wholelotachocolate just ran Sept. 3 – but ran probably is too strong a word. Making his turf debut he raced erratically into the first turn and eventually was all but eased out of his race. On dirt, he’s capable of springing a mild upset stalking a quick pace, pouncing on Double Tuff, and getting first run on the deep closers like Operation Stevie.

While Double Tuff made good on his Aug. 21 stakes favoritism, Unbridled Class did not. Odds-on to win the Shelby County, she ran well below form finish second to Expect Indy at odds of 1-2, but probably will be favored to rebound Wednesday in the $100,000 Merrillville Stakes, a six-furlong sprint for fillies and mares. Maybe Unbridled Class will rebound, but it was hard to come up with an obvious excuse for her last race, and she might prefer routing.

The Merrillville is chock full of pace elements, and one approach might be to play for the race to fall apart. Hay Little Bit might be beyond her best at age 7 but might have one final stakes hurrah left to produce. She very much needs a strong early and middle pace to have a chance, but the price will be right to guess she gets it.

Preceding the Brickyard and Merrillville stakes are a pair of $100,000 2-year-old races, the Hillside and the City of Anderson, which is restricted to fillies.

Release the Heat’s second-start $25,000 maiden-claiming win at Arlington produced a very high 86 Beyer Speed Figure, and if she runs to that number the City of Anderson is hers. But a longer distance on a dirt track and the presence of other pace players make Release the Heat a poor value proposition. Lady Ally, Nothingbutflowers, and Shes the Cause are the alternatives.

Two Last Words got nothing in the Ellis Park Juvenile but was simply overmatched in that open stakes race. He fits much better with these Indiana-breds and is a key Hillside player along with Rampage and Mai Tai’s Gem.