Don't underestimate Hay Dakota in Woodchopper

Jockey Carlos Marquez Jr. got off Hay Dakota after the horse had lost a maiden race in April at Hawthorne by more than 27 lengths and made a prediction to trainer Joel Berndt: “This is a grass horse,” Marquez said.

Berndt was willing to listen. Hay Dakota had been working with aplomb but racing poorly, so Berndt dropped him in for a $20,000 maiden-claiming tag and tried turf after settling his stable at Canterbury Park, and he found that Marquez had been right.

Hay Dakota improved all summer and through the fall, getting good enough that in his most recent start he won the Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes at Churchill in a 29-1 upset. Hay Dakota will try for an encore performance Saturday at Fair Grounds as part of a full field of 14 in the $75,000 Woodchopper, the last 3-year-old-restricted grass stakes of the year in North America.

Hay Dakota, who is based with Berndt’s string at Delta Downs, will be shorter price Saturday than he was in the Commonwealth but still could be as high as, say, 10-1 in what is a very deep and well-matched field set to race one mile on the Fair Grounds grass course.

Hay Dakota is one of five horses coming out of the Commonwealth, along with Sir Dudley Digges, One Mean Man, Zapperini, and Ikerrin Road. The form of that race is not a great match for the Woodchopper since the late-autumn condition of the Churchill course is nothing like the Fair Grounds course, which is quite firm this season.

Sir Dudley Digges, who was fifth in the Commonwealth, won the 2016 Queen’s Plate for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey and trainer Mike Maker, but that Canadian-bred race was run at 1 1/4 miles on Tapeta, and Sir Dudley Digges is a grinding, staying-on type who can be out-quicked in a one-mile race like the Woodchopper.

One Mean Man is suited to one-mile races and has had a fine 2016 campaign, winning five races and three stakes. He held up admirably through an 11-start season but seems unlikely to have improvement in him Saturday while making his 12th start of the year.

According to trainer Mark Casse, owner Robert Masterson purchased Ikerrin Road at an English sale when he traveled to watch Tepin win the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot. Ikerrin Road faded to sixth in the Commonwealth, and Casse said he’s not sure how far the horse wants to run.

Zapperini has made only three grass starts, ran well in all of them, and was a gaining fourth, beaten just one length, in the Commonwealth. He has appeal at 8-1 on the morning line for the Woodchopper.

Mav goes for the hot Brad Cox barn and exits a decisive starter-allowance win while making his first start after being claimed. Wildcat Wish also won first after a claim, capturing the Sam’s Town Stakes at Delta for high-percentage trainer Effren Loza, and though he ran poorly in his lone turf start, he is bred top and bottom for grass. Cordon, a 20-1 chance on the line, ran a fast final quarter-mile after losing ground and was a close fourth against older allowance horses last out.

Sharp Henny may offer value

Sharp Henny finished with verve in winning her career debut by five lengths during opening week of the Fair Grounds meet, and she might have even more to give Saturday in the fillies division of the $100,000 Louisiana Futurity.

On the day after Sharp Henny’s Nov. 20 win, trainer Al Stall said that he planned to skip the $100,000 Louisiana Champions Day Lassie on Dec. 10 to give Sharp Henny more recovery time and point for the Futurity. The filly, by Henny Hughes, has worked twice since her race, and though she led in her debut, she might be capable of rating behind other pace horses Saturday. She finished strongly and galloped out well when debuting at 5 1/2 furlongs and should appreciate going six furlongs Saturday. Anything close to her 6-1 morning-line odds would be very appealing.

Sashimi Blaster is the most accomplished filly in the field, but her last-out stakes win came in a two-turn Delta race, and she might lack the speed for six furlongs. Her trainer, Bret Calhoun, has a more interesting entrant in Foxy Miss, who races with blinkers added after a disappointing two-turn try last out and a troubled sprint trip two races ago.

The strength in the colts-and-geldings division of the Futurity lies on the outside, with Jack Snipe’s drawn in post 14 and Set Hut in post 13. Jack Snipe’s finished third in the Champions Day Juvenile, won by the talented Saint’s Fan, and neither the winner nor the runner-up comes back in the Futurity. Set Hut, a decisive one-mile maiden winner last out at Fair Grounds, will have to take a significant step forward to post a minor upset.