Dom the Bomb, Recount big names in Land of Lincoln

STICKNEY, Ill. – The Illinois foal crop is down, way down from its peak late in the last century. But from a small pool of horses come two members of the Illinois-bred 3-year-old class of 2015, Dom the Bomb and Recount, who actually are pretty good.

They meet for the first time Saturday in the $50,000 Land of Lincoln Stakes, a six-furlong dash for Illinois-breds heading a nine-race card that includes the $50,000 Pretty Jenny for Illinois-bred 3-year-old fillies.

Dom the Bomb hasn’t raced since Jan. 24, Recount since Sept. 6, but make no mistake – these two are the ones to beat.

LAND OF LINCOLN

Key Contenders

DOM THE BOMB (Last 3 Beyers: 83-91-72)

◗ He was bet down to 7-2 for his graded stakes debut in the Hutcheson at Gulfstream, but his race was over at the start. Dom the Bomb stepped on the back of his front hoof with a rear foot while regaining his balance after a stumbling start. Trainer Larry Rivelli said Dom the Bomb had badly grabbed a quarter, meaning he’d pulled the flesh off the back of the stepped-on hoof. Thus, his recent layoff.

◗ He dominated Illinois-breds in his three starts last year, twice in stakes.

◗ Post 1 should not be a hindrance. Dom the Bomb has excellent speed but will rate kindly, too.

DRF FORMULATOR FACT: In the last five years in Illinois-bred sprint stakes at Hawthorne, Rivelli is 2-1-0 in 11 starts, with an 87-cent return on investment, including horses who lost at 3-5, 4-5, 5-2, 5-2, and 3-1.

RECOUNT (Last 3 Beyers: 85-72-85)

◗ He might have been the best 2-year-old last summer at Arlington, winning a maiden race and the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity, but how strong was the Futurity? Using DRF Formulator, we see that the horses behind Recount that day have since put together a record of just 3-5-3 from 27 starts.

DRF FORMULATOR FACT: A couple of negative ones regarding the barn of Recount’s trainer, Jim DiVito. In the last five years with 3-year-olds racing on dirt 45-plus days after a layoff, the outfit is 4-4-5 from 29 starts, with a $1.37 ROI. Also, DiVito with 180-plus-day layoff runners on dirt in the last five years is just 1-3-1 from 16 starts, with a 37-cent ROI.

PRETTY JENNY

Key Contenders

SCATLADYBDANCING (Beyers: 53-61)

◗ Sharp debut winner last winter might be excused for her fading comeback run March 20, when she contested a hot pace sprinting while perhaps less than fully fit.

DRF FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Terrel Gore is at least decent with horses making their second dirt sprint after a layoff, going 4-6-4 from 25 starts, with a $1.74 ROI over the last five years. The maiden special weight and allowance horses have outperformed the sample as a whole.

TIMEADAY (Last 3 Beyers: 58-52-55)

◗ She might have disliked the surface at Oaklawn, where she failed to produce her best form in two starts. She won three times at Hawthorne before shipping south, but with seven starts, she’s more exposed than most here.

TOTALED (Beyer: 74)

◗ Debut winner might not have beaten much but won convincingly against open company.

DRF FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Mike Reavis has sent a debut winner to an Illinois-bred sprint stakes once in the last five years, when Luck With a Kiss scored a blowout win in the 2010 Land of Lincoln at odds of 5-2.