Dick Jerardi: Remsen a tricky read for Beyer Figure makers

When I first got into the game in the 1970s, I did not understand those people who said they never looked at times. I could not imagine why knowing which horse could run faster would not matter.

It does matter, of course, but not without context. Times, by themselves, don’t mean much. Times, in relation to all the times over the same surface on the same day, do matter.

I really wanted to learn something last weekend. When I saw the results, I made a few assumptions.

I figured Will Take Charge earned the Beyer of his life when he caught Game On Dude at the wire in the Clark Handicap. I figured that Honor Code and Cairo Prince must have run really fast in their thrilling Remsen. And I absolutely knew that the Cigar Mile had to produce a big figure.

Well, I got that absolutely right. The ageless Flat Out got a 110 when he ran down Private Zone in the Cigar and left a lot of really fast horses strung out behind him. Given the multiple potential scenarios, I had no interest in betting the Cigar. This game is hard enough when you have an opinion, impossible when half a dozen horses can win and the same half dozen can be second.

I really can’t explain the time in the Clark. Given the speed of the track, I would have expected 1 1/8 miles to be run in about 1:48.10. Instead, it was 1:49.39.

Game On Dude certainly appeared to run one of his good ones. Will Take Charge has been running good ones since the Jim Dandy. But the time and the margins (not nearly big enough over the field) told another story. The big two simply had not run that fast. The Clark got a 101 Beyer.

The Beyer won’t matter for Will Take Charge’s championship campaign. That is over. The big colt has clinched the 3-year-old championship with an amazing run from late July to late November.

The Remsen’s final time was bizarre, but actually less mysterious than the Clark’s. It was clear there wasn’t much pace in the race and when Honor Code moved into second on the backstretch, you knew they were going slowly.

But 25.84 seconds, 52.74, and 1:17.56? Did they move the race to the grass?

After they went a mile in 1:41.13, it was impossible for those horses or any horses to post a fast final time. The 1 1/8 miles went in 1:52.92, a time so slow it was actually kind of hard to believe.

Clearly, the fractions affected everything about the race, including the final time. This is where making speed figures can sometimes be art instead of science.

If we went by the variant that had been established throughout the day, Honor Code’s win would have gotten a 71 Beyer. That, obviously, would not have come close to reflecting the colt’s ability or that of Cairo Prince, who had won his first two races easily and had gotten Beyers of 84 and 90. Honor Code earned Beyers of 89 and 93 in his races.

After taking into account the history of the top four finishers and the margins, the Remsen was eventually assigned an 88 Beyer.

In a perfect Beyer world, all times fall perfectly into line every day and there are never any doubts. In the real world of strangely run races, art sometimes trumps science.

As for what to make of Cairo Prince, who looked like he could not lose with 100 yards to go and Honor Code, who certainly looked beaten at the same point, I am kind of baffled by what I saw. Was Honor Code incredibly game to come back and win? Did Cairo Prince just stop running? I have no clue what that was about.

I think I will draw a line through the Remsen and be content knowing that the horses ran really well in 2013 and that they promise to be serious players on the road to the 2014 Kentucky Derby.

I will evaluate them off what came before the Remsen and what comes after. It is not like they ran poorly in the Remsen. They just did what they could under some very unusual circumstances.

Let’s hope the next time we have a really big race weekend, the times provide more clarity and less confusion.