DeVivo: Pick three play at Saratoga for Friday, Sept. 4

Beyond morning-line favorite Willow U, the turf form is murky in a $35,000 nonwinners-of-three lifetime event in Race 8. Trainer George Weaver is 0 for 6 with female claiming turf route runners like Willow U returning in less than three weeks, including a loss last time out. If you are willing to take a stand against this favorite, it could launch a very good pick three. So that’s what I’ll try to do.

Race 8: COMFORT LEVEL (#1, 6-1) didn’t show much in two previous grass starts. But she’s been facing much tougher horses than these and now makes her first start for a high-percentage barn. She’s in for a tag for the first time since scoring her maiden win. TIZSATIONAL (#3, 20-1) may take to turf, based on her sire’s 4-for-9 record with his offspring in grass routes. LIFE’S A STAGE (#6, 6-1) fired fresh earlier this summer, coming home her final quarter-mile in a good 23.47 seconds and might run big again first time back from a layoff.

Race 9: SIMPLE LOVE (#1, 6-1) looks live making her first start since late June. Note that trainer Jason Servis is 12 for 39 (35 percent) the past two years with turf sprinters returning from a 61-180-day break. HOOLIGAN (#8, 6-1) ships in from California for Wesley Ward, who shows a 16-for-45 record (36 percent) with 3-year-olds facing older horses in turf sprints following a 31-60-day layoff. PERSNICKITY (#6, 12-1) has three seconds, including a near-miss by a neck, returning from a 31-60-day layoff. SPECTACULAR ME (#7, 7-2) is a must use after being a neck shy of owning a four-race winning streak.

Race 10: HIRSCHBEIN (#4, 5-2) is the clear morning-line favorite and a logical horse to use for Christophe Clement, who is 2 for 8 with horses switching from dirt to turf and dropping from maiden to maiden claiming. I’m hoping to spice up the ticket by including BAPU (#2, 15-1) and PURIM PARK (#8, 15-1). Bapu makes his second start off the layoff for Arch Kingsley, who is 5 for 24 with maiden turfers making the second start of their form cycle, primarily with jumpers. Purim Park did nothing in his first two career starts, but may improve with the switch to George Weaver’s barn. Note that Weaver is 2 for 11 with a high $4.74 return on investment with maidens making their first start for him following layoffs of more than 180 days. I also like the fact this horse has worked 10 furlongs in the 11 days leading up to his comeback.

:: See Joe DeVivo’s pick three play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets