DeVivo: Pick three play at Belmont for Sunday, Sept. 13
With heavy rain in the forecast for Saturday evening, I’m handicapping Sunday’s Belmont card under the assumption that races scheduled for turf will get moved to the main track. My pick three sequence (races 5-7) includes only one grass race.
Race 5: The trainers of the big dropdown horses all have good stats in that category, so I can’t eliminate any of them and will simply use all three: STAR DYNASTY (#3, 3-1), RIDING FIRST CLASS (#5, 7-2), and LITTLE MISS JULIA (#8, 5-2).
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Race 6: These picks are for the main track. My prime contenders are main-track-only entrant SISTER MARGARET (#4, 5-1) and YOU LIE (#11, 20-1). Sister Margaret is an obvious choice if the track comes up wet (2 for 2 record). Regardless of the track condition, she’s a good play on the basis of trainer Gary Gullo’s 5-for-18 record (28 percent) with fillies and mares making the third start of their form cycle in dirt sprints. You Lie is an intriguing price play, because of trainer Tom Albertrani’s 5-for-12 record (42 percent) in off-the-turf sprints. As backups, I’m using MAYLA (#7, 8-1) and SUN AND MOON (#13, 6-1). Bret Calhoun, the trainer of Mayla, is 9 for 32 (28 percent) the last two years with 3-year-olds back within 30 days challenging older horses in allowance races. Chris Englehart, who conditions main-track-only Sun and Moon, is 18 for 46 (39 percent) with sprinters switching from turf to dirt.
Race 7: FACE OF WINNER (#1, 5-1) captured a first-level allowance at Saratoga that produced three next-out winners and one runner-up with the top three Beyers from that group 92-91-90. THE TRUTH OR ELSE (#6, 6-1), who was chasing American Pharoah early this season, returns from a long break for Ken McPeek, who shows a 2-for-6 record with 3-year-olds in allowance routes making their first start following a layoff of 61-180 days. STRONG STIPULATION (#2, 15-1) won each of the last two times he switched from turf to dirt and merits respect coming from the barn of Graham Motion, who is 6 for 17 (35 percent) with that angle in allowance routes.
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