DeVivo: How I'd play Saratoga for Saturday, Aug. 8
I’m focusing on price horses that look playable in the first leg of a pick three on Saturday’s card at Saratoga. The fifth race is for maidens going long on turf and I’m taking a stance against morning-line favorite Lookaroundcorners and using three horses, including a pair listed at 15-1.
Race 5: My prime plays are long-idle ZENNOR (#7, 6-1) and first-time starter KING OF SPADES (#11, 15-1). Zennor’s trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, does well with maidens in turf routes returning from long layoffs (3 for 12, 67 percent in the money). He’s 2 for 7, with two others beaten a neck, with 3-year-olds like Zennor. Graham Motion, who sends out King of Spades, shows a 7 for 37 record (19 percent) with a $2.61 return on investment with 3-year-old first-time starters in turf routes. At Saratoga, Motion is 2 for 6 with a $4.73 ROI. As a backup, I’m using DAVE HOEGHT (#12, 15-1), who exits a race that produced four next-out winners, albeit all at minor tracks (Parx, Ellis, Presque Isle, ThistleDown.
Race 6: The top two choices on the morning line, OCEAN KNIGHT (#4, 2-1) and JUBA (#2, 5-2) both have good trainer angles in their favor, cutting back in distance following a break of 61 to 180 days. A whopping 87 percent of McLaughlin’s horses show a top- three finish, so Ocean Knight must be used. Jimmy Jerkens is 2 for 6 with a $2.41 ROI with horses like Juba. If the favorites fail, my back-ups are big prices. CRAFTY DREAMER (#6, 10-1) won going seven furlongs off a similar layoff last season at Belmont. ERIK THE RED (#7, 12-1) comes from a barn that shows a 2-for-8 record and $3.92 ROI with horses at Saratoga that finished in the money last time out back in less than 30 days in dirt sprints at 6 1/2 to seven furlongs.
Race 7:Bill Mott is 4 for 14 (29 percent) with a $2.27 ROI with turf route runners at Saratoga returning from layoffs of more than 180 days, so I’m making TUTTIPAESI (#2, 15-1) a prime play. My other ‘A’ horse is J WONDER (#6, 5-1). Her trainer, Shug McGaughey, is 2 for 9, with two other near-misses by a head, in non-graded turf stakes at Saratoga following layoffs of 61 to 180 days. I’m also including two logical shorter priced runners, DARING KATHY (#9, 3-1) and STELLAR PATH (#12, 4-1).
:: See Joe DeVivo’s pick three play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets